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$0.25 45 m SNG. Mistake shoving on flop?

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$0.25 45 m SNG. Mistake shoving on flop? - Wed Dec 07, 2011, 03:20 PM
(#1)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
This is right on the bubble, I am the short stack in BB with 8 BB left.

By my calculations villain only just had the odds to call my shove on the flop (4 outs to the straight, 6 to his overcards). I calculate on the flop I had around 60% equity against villains cards.

With hindsight I think this might have been the right move against one of the other short stacks, but villains stack was so big he decided it was worth the risk.
Was also dangerous since I was acting first, I hoped that if had a 7 or 8, he would have been worried I'd hit the J and fold. Of course if he'd had a J I was probably done.

I suppose I should have held on, but I've had so many times close to bubble where I've gone from <10 to <5 BB while waiting for hands, and then been too low on chips to climb back up even if I do double with a shove at some point.

Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Wed Dec 07, 2011 at 04:00 PM..
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 03:25 PM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
You essentially turned you have-some-value hand into a complete bluff. And you got caught.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 07:00 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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On the bubble here, this is an "ick" play.

First, you are not the shortest stack. There is 1 guy 2 to your left who is on fewer chips, even if you fold your BB here.

In 2 hands the BB is going to hit HIM, and if you are ready to stand on a cheese hand like bottom pair with no re-draw chance, don't you think HE might be ready to stand pretty lightly too?

So in a spot like this, I'd not be playing marginal situations to try for a "run deep" right on the bubble, but rather I'd be looking to lock up SOME sort of return, then look for any spot I could to try something like this.

Next, your play as a play is pretty "meh" to in all honesty.

Puciek is right, you have a hand with SOME VALUE, yet you attempt to turn it into a bluff by betting to get the other guy to fold.
The problem with that is there are rarely (read: never) hands which are going to call and not at least have decent equity versus you; the hand that called you for instance has about 42% equity versus your holding. If that is the case, what do you gain by moving all in?

Nothing. You fold out worse, and get called by better. and you do so by risking ANY chance to make it ITM.

Also...

Because you are facing a big stack, and because he only risks a drop from barely the 2nd stack to the 3rd stack, you represent very litle in the way of a "threat" to his SNG life with your move. If he buss you however, he ensures that HE makes some sort of profit on the MTT, in case he makes a mistake vs the single bigger stack. This means hands like the A9 he called on will call you MORE OFTEN if held by a stack that does not feel a threat from you, just so he can burst the bubble (read: sheriffing). Normally you like that, because the 40% equity hands are getting just under a good price.

In this spot though, you probably have a BETTER CHANCE of folding and making it ITM when the other short stacks loses his stand, than you do here if your all in gets called. That makes this an iffy play at best...

Please note: if you held top pair any kicker, or even if you were by far the shortest stack left (everyone else on 6k with no willingness to be the bubble boy), your play is MARGINALLY more acceptable...but only very marginally. This is really the sort of "push 'n pray" move you should only be making when you are the only short stack and you are under 5BB in a bubble situation.

So your short stack was jsut a bit too big for this to be a reasonable try.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Wed Dec 07, 2011 at 07:04 PM..
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 07:13 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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remember rule # 1..... you can't win if you don't cash first.

If you had a playable hand, then I'd have shoved pre. When you see the flop, you get bottom pair (better than nothing, but not exactly what you want up against a big stack). If you flopped top pair, different story, then I like the push, but not with bottom pair.

With the way that people donk themselves out of these quarter games, instead of shoving the flop, I'm check/folding. Wait until you get a playable hand and shove pre, or let someone else donk themselves out, get ITM, then find something to shove pre.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 07:18 PM
(#5)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Cheers guys.

All makes sense.

I think I knew it was the wrong play, but I was frustrated and wanted to take the initiative since I knew if I checked he would just bet me off the pot. Need to be more disciplined..

I've played quite a few of these 45 mans lately, and found myself often going out around the 7th - 15th place mark.

I think once the mid stages hit and I start to drop below 15 BB I start to panic and tighten up too much / stop stealing, Then if I get below 10 BB I enter push / fold mode too early as you say here.

I've found lately there are a lot more nitty players in these tournaments and it is more important to steal all the time since there aren't so many bad lags to pay you off when you hit monster hands. In this tourney I got dealt some great hands but could never get value from them.

I also find it frustrating when I spend a while building up good reads on the player on my table, and then just as I am starting to take advantage of that get moved to a new table where I am short stacked and with no reads. Makes stealing a lot harder..
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 07:37 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
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trying to steal in these, especially when you're OOP, is a bigtime recipe for disaster.

The players in them donk themselves out way too often to even worry about trying it. If you don't have a real hand, don't be in the hand.

Steal attempts work better against better players, not against the donks, bad lags and calling stations that you'll find in here.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 07:52 PM
(#7)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomcrockpot View Post
Cheers guys.

All makes sense.

I think I knew it was the wrong play, but I was frustrated and wanted to take the initiative since I knew if I checked he would just bet me off the pot. Need to be more disciplined..

I've played quite a few of these 45 mans lately, and found myself often going out around the 7th - 15th place mark.

I think once the mid stages hit and I start to drop below 15 BB I start to panic and tighten up too much / stop stealing, Then if I get below 10 BB I enter push / fold mode too early as you say here.

I've found lately there are a lot more nitty players in these tournaments and it is more important to steal all the time since there aren't so many bad lags to pay you off when you hit monster hands. In this tourney I got dealt some great hands but could never get value from them.

I also find it frustrating when I spend a while building up good reads on the player on my table, and then just as I am starting to take advantage of that get moved to a new table where I am short stacked and with no reads. Makes stealing a lot harder..
One of my "best advice ever": play cash games.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 08:06 PM
(#8)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
trying to steal in these, especially when you're OOP, is a bigtime recipe for disaster.

The players in them donk themselves out way too often to even worry about trying it. If you don't have a real hand, don't be in the hand.

Steal attempts work better against better players, not against the donks, bad lags and calling stations that you'll find in here.
Have you played in any of these lately JWK24? The last few I've played I've been stuck on tables where the majority of players are nits with vpips of below 15%. Stealing has been working, mostly, and I've found it necessary especially when I get bad cards, the players are too tight to pay me off when I get decent hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek
One of my "best advice ever": play cash games.
I do play mostly cash, I just got a bit bored of it lately so I've been playing a few more tourneys.

Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Wed Dec 07, 2011 at 08:07 PM.. Reason: correction
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 08:17 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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I haven't played one since black friday, since I'm in the US.
I played them for a couple years before then and I'd say 1 out of every 25-30 or so had more than 4 players that were tight.

If you're seeing many more tight players, then you're getting unlucky with the tournies you're picking to enter into.

The quarter/50 cent mtt's and s&g's were my normal tourneys.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 08:50 PM
(#10)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
You essentially turned you have-some-value hand into a complete bluff. And you got caught.
I wish I would get caught bluffing by worse hands more often.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 09:31 PM
(#11)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by hamburglarid View Post
I wish I would get caught bluffing by worse hands more often.
I will be glad to call you in this spot every single time like that, sure it's a bit ev-, but not by any real amound (it's about -800ev from the looks of it) but in exchange i got 41% chance to:
- end the bubble right here
-get ITM
-position myself well for the first place with new, improved stack
- still have a short in game so it will be now very easy to jump up one money slot

You can have the 800 chips, i will take the $. Remember kids, there is more to poker than just EV, $EV is even more important.
 
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Wed Dec 07, 2011, 10:31 PM
(#12)
hamburglarid's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
I will be glad to call you in this spot every single time like that, sure it's a bit ev-, but not by any real amound (it's about -800ev from the looks of it) but in exchange i got 41% chance to:
- end the bubble right here
-get ITM
-position myself well for the first place with new, improved stack
- still have a short in game so it will be now very easy to jump up one money slot

You can have the 800 chips, i will take the $. Remember kids, there is more to poker than just EV, $EV is even more important.
It was 2800 chips and the pot is 1200... he is about 40% to win the pot and that is if he knows we have 74s and he doesn't. This player is a massive loser at this level and if you play like him you are probably losing too.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 12:17 AM
(#13)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Unforntunately Hamburglaraid, I agree 100% with Puciek.

The harm of losing to the all in for that big stack's win or run deep chance is quite small.
(he moves form 2nd stack with 400 more than #3 to 3rd stack, still 2k or so more than #4).

The benefit of winning it is quite large.
(he immediately busts the bubble, thus locking up a profit no matter what, and adds a big chip up)

The odds are VERY close to break even, as long as he assumes Tom has no more than 2nd pair.
(about 1400 would have had to be in the pot to make it so, there was 1200 in)

Were it me, I make this call all day long as the big stack.

...of course I'm not LIMPING on a short stack's BB though, so the big stack didn't do EVERYTHING well here.
 

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