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Big $3.30: Weak Drawing Hand on BU at Very Passive Table, Preflop Decision

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Big $3.30: Weak Drawing Hand on BU at Very Passive Table, Preflop Decision - Thu Dec 08, 2011, 01:32 AM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
It's the 2nd blind level of the tournament. My table is very passive; the table average is 33/9 over 9 hands. I do not expect either player to my left to raise an overlimp, and I'm doubtful that a large raise on my part would get many folds. Ultimately, I don't have much info, but the table looks weak.

I like to keep things simple and just fold in spots like these, but am I missing value?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Panicky (Button) (t3030)
SB (t2970)
BB (t5645)
UTG (t3320)
UTG+1 (t2950)
MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t2970)
MP3 (t2735)
CO (t3370)

Panicky's M: 67.33

Preflop: Panicky is Button with 10, 7
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, 1 fold, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, Panicky ???
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 02:49 AM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Well it is really matter of "what do you need to hit OTF and how often will you know that it's beat". If you are only sure to play post flop with at least 2p - fold.
But if you are capable with properly maneuvering MP/no kicker against multiple opponents then go for it as it will be profitable for you in the long run (mind that it's much tougher than it looks, so think couple times before calling).
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 03:15 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'm not a good enough maneuverer to play w/o two pair+ in these spots. Something to work on, I guess.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 03:29 AM
(#4)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I'm not a good enough maneuverer to play w/o two pair+ in these spots. Something to work on, I guess.
Well if you really want to learn that then you should simply move to LAG approach to tournaments. You will be playing a lot more hands, you will be raising and 3-betting a lot lighter and very often will put yourself in tough spots. But if you will manage to make right decisions - payoff will be great.

People who play LAG/Border of maniac (like I do) raise not because of my hand, or villain hand but because I know that I can read him very well and got enough balls to pull the trigger with complete air in insane spots that you should never bluff, just because i got a solid read on my opponent.

Last edited by Puciek; Thu Dec 08, 2011 at 03:32 AM..
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 04:11 AM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Do you ever have enough of a read within 9 hands to make non-standard plays? I'm curious how you develop your reads.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 04:25 AM
(#6)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Do you ever have enough of a read within 9 hands to make non-standard plays? I'm curious how you develop your reads.
I play mostly live which is a lot different (smaller saturation - you will usually know couple people at the table). I also talk a lot, I try to get people into conversation (about anything really) and this brings a lot of information about a person too (if you know what to look for).

When you are on table full of unks, I will usually go for my aggro approach anyway (even though I got no reads) because I will develop them as-we-go and I will do it much faster than most of opponents (who got no reads on me either).
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 04:49 AM
(#7)
pteridophyta's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 96
I'd call this all day every day.

More than likely you'll get to the flop for just 30 and you stand to win a huge put and double up early.

Doesn't happen often but with implied odds of 100-1 I just wouldn't be able to help myself.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 04:51 AM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I guess I just need to practice picking up reads.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 04:52 AM
(#9)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by pteridophyta View Post
I'd call this all day every day.

More than likely you'll get to the flop for just 30 and you stand to win a huge put and double up early.

Doesn't happen often but with implied odds of 100-1 I just wouldn't be able to help myself.
You know what are the odds to hit a flush OTF when you hold XcXc? 1.5%
And then when you hit you won't get everyone into the pot, sometimes your flush won't even be the best hand.
This is a leak many people got in early tournament stages, "hey it's just 30, I don't care about it". You don't care about 30 5-6 times and now it's 150 chips down (10% of your stack).
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:08 AM
(#10)
pteridophyta's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 96
I'm not looking to hit a flush I'm looking to hit a flush draw, hidden straight or straight + flush draw.

He's in late position. The table is passive. He's getting infinity:1 odds to call and huge implied odds to go with it.

The odds of hitting a flush draw on flop = 11.8%

This is such an easy call. You'd be leaving a tonne of equity on the board by folding here.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:09 AM
(#11)
pteridophyta's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
You know what are the odds to hit a flush OTF when you hold XcXc? 1.5%
And then when you hit you won't get everyone into the pot, sometimes your flush won't even be the best hand.
This is a leak many people got in early tournament stages, "hey it's just 30, I don't care about it". You don't care about 30 5-6 times and now it's 150 chips down (10% of your stack).
5% of his stack
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:20 AM
(#12)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by pteridophyta View Post
5% of his stack
And this kids is result of our current education system, people who don't understand the concept - nitpick an example.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:25 AM
(#13)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I guess I just need to practice picking up reads.
This doesn't really work that way. You pick up patterns, mannerisms, girls in a club but not reads. Read is a result of what you picked up put together in given situation.
You can get some ideas from my old topics here (back when i actually thought that some people here actually want to improve their games, silly me) to see how this goes in practice

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...e-fleet-street

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/for...buy-live-40man
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:32 AM
(#14)
pteridophyta's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 96
Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
And this kids is result of our current education system, people who don't understand the concept - nitpick an example.
And this kids is the result of our education system. Poor maths.

And I'm not sure what reads have to do with this hand. There hasn't even been a flop yet and only 9 hands have been played.
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 07:35 AM
(#15)
pteridophyta's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 96
And while I'm at it the odds of hitting a flush are 0.8% :P
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 08:25 AM
(#16)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Panicky,

This is largely a stylistic choice whether or not you want to call along with a gapped connector hand like T7s on the BTN.

A "limp and look" stance really entails that you can bet/raise your semi bluffs (when you flop them) on the flop and take down the pot from ALL the villains with at least reasonable frequency. These loose/passive station-y table dynamics usually require at LEAST 2 bullets on a semi-bluff to win the pot though, and it does not take many of those shots to really deplete your stack.

If you are confident in your ability to set a "speculation budget", and not go over that amount, then these hands CAN be profitable if you hit them, or if your passive opponents fold their marginal hits, and their misses often enough.

An alternate approach in the early stages is to stick to a TIGHTER open range. By doing this, you can usually raise with confidence over limpers, and often take down the pot on continuation in the smaller fields you will tend to create. This is a much more ABC approach, and one which may lead you to be trap-able (or float-able) by the more aware opponents, but it does tend to make your post flop decisions easier, AND it tends to leave you with hands on which you really do not MIND seeing someone station you to the river.

As for your situation HERE, I would say as long as you are not calling in this spot TOO often, you can afford to limp along here. I'd really prefer to know more about the post flop tendencies of the villain's who've limped before I do though, as calling stations come in many different flavors. To derive a decent return for your limps on hands like these, you are really going to have to win at least 1 in 4 or 5 to break even on the spec amounts you might be "wasting" when you limp/fold, or flop bet/fold, but as long as you do not go over board, you can probably do it.

But there is nothing that says you HAVE to, nor anything that says you are passing up +eV by not doing it. this is a highly exploitative play, and trying to make those really requires a lot more info than you give us here.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 09:24 AM
(#17)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I'm seein a flop here PP. as I do "budget" a %age for early spec hands like this. Postflop can get a lil tricky at times, but I think your postflop play is good enough to make good descisions when they do. And the chip down when the price of admission is so small is easily recoopable when you do hit, as long as (like JD says) you dont do it too awfully often, or budget too big a % of your stack for these plays.. Just my .02 good to have ya back G... MT
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 01:08 PM
(#18)
TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
It's the 2nd blind level of the tournament. My table is very passive; the table average is 33/9 over 9 hands. I do not expect either player to my left to raise an overlimp, and I'm doubtful that a large raise on my part would get many folds. Ultimately, I don't have much info, but the table looks weak.

I like to keep things simple and just fold in spots like these, but am I missing value?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 3.3 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Panicky (Button) (t3030)
SB (t2970)
BB (t5645)
UTG (t3320)
UTG+1 (t2950)
MP1 (t3000)
MP2 (t2970)
MP3 (t2735)
CO (t3370)

Panicky's M: 67.33

Preflop: Panicky is Button with 10, 7
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t30, MP1 calls t30, 1 fold, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, Panicky ???
Heyyyy ... look who's back in town!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
Postflop can get a lil tricky at times, but I think your postflop play is good enough to make good descisions when they do.
+1
 
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Thu Dec 08, 2011, 09:16 PM
(#19)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I appreciate the feedback, guys. Glad to see a lot of active posters in here.
 

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