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big $11-played it poorly or villain's lucky?

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big $11-played it poorly or villain's lucky? - Fri Dec 09, 2011, 07:53 PM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

reasoning behind the play:

my chips 35bb's vs villain's more than I got-- read on villain slightly aggro

pre-flop: I called because my read is villain's got KK,QQ, not AA cause I got one not AK, AQ cause I don't think he will min raise with that kind of hand. Then I got chips to call and odds to call. So perfect call I think.

post-flop: villain led out for 6.5bb's 45% of the pot which I guess seems weak because there is a draw possibility if he got AK or AA he want more value from it and protect his hand from a draw. That's why I still put him in Cowboys or Ladies. and I called because my play here is to put all the money on the turn just for him to be committed if i check/raise here he might fold.

turn: 9h i thought 9 is not a scare card for me definitely he doesn't have that. there you go just as I planned chips in the middle at the turn.

Conclusion:
- My instinct is always telling me he got K's or Q's. You got him you got him. He will not min3bet anything other than KK or QQ he wanted a caller in that spot.He can't be AA because I got one.

-Is it okay to get busto when you trust your instinct?

-I pay attention to my table. That's why I said to myself ok this guy will get bust out with his K's or Q's even when there's an ace on board.

-Be honest. If you didn't see his card would you put him in A9o?



please give me an explanation that I played poorly.
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:01 PM
(#2)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
oop against raise and reraise i'd have folded pf.
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:09 PM
(#3)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
oop against raise and reraise i'd have folded pf.
likewise, any K or Q on board is a scare. With no position tricky to play.
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:22 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
You seem to be ruling out certain hands because you think that they're improbable (AA, for example). You can consider them less likely for sure, but there is a big difference between unlikely and impossible.

And like the two players before me, I disagree that you had the odds to call the 3bet preflop OOP with AJs. I frequently fold AJs OOP to only a 2bet.
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:51 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

reasoning behind the play:

my chips 35bb's vs villain's more than I got-- read on villain slightly aggro
any time you are on a 35BB stack and there is a raise and a 3bet in front of you, you should be playing TIGHTER. AJs is a bit too weak to call into what figures to be a pot that will see you committed quite quickly.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
pre-flop: I called because my read is villain's got KK,QQ, not AA cause I got one not AK, AQ cause I don't think he will min raise with that kind of hand. Then I got chips to call and odds to call. So perfect call I think.
If the villain is on KK or QQ, and that makes up a large portion of your range for him, you are well behind. You should fold because your are about a 70% under dog to those hands if you stay to see all 5 cards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
post-flop: villain led out for 6.5bb's 45% of the pot which I guess seems weak because there is a draw possibility if he got AK or AA he want more value from it and protect his hand from a draw. That's why I still put him in Cowboys or Ladies. and I called because my play here is to put all the money on the turn just for him to be committed if i check/raise here he might fold.
If you have him on a very tight range of just KK/QQ, that is a bit of a mistake in most cases. In a 3bet pot, those are very likely, but are not the only possibilities.

Still, going with just the read info you supply, if he villain is aggro enough to keep betting, but is likely to fold if you raise immediately, there is nothing wrong with flatting this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
turn: 9h i thought 9 is not a scare card for me definitely he doesn't have that. there you go just as I planned chips in the middle at the turn.
The 9 isn't a scare card for you, as if you've effectively range the villain, and hands like KK/QQ make up the bulk of his range, a 9 should (almost) NEVER be in his hand. The fact you flatted the turn has left you quite committed, so there is no reason not to go with your plan of getting the chips in on the turn...or at least no reason that you should really be scared of.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
Conclusion:
- My instinct is always telling me he got K's or Q's. You got him you got him. He will not min3bet anything other than KK or QQ he wanted a caller in that spot.He can't be AA because I got one.
Your instinct was wrong; he had A9. The result of this hand shows that there is something quite off in your ranging of the opponent here. He is WAY looser than you suspected, so something was a-miss because you had him on KK or QQ only. I storngly suggest you look int he PSO video library and check out the video by TheLangolier on putting opponents on a hand. The factors at work here, the observations needed to do that effectively, are really too complex for me to go into in this post. But please, go check out that video.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
-Is it okay to get busto when you trust your instinct?
If your instinct is honed, and generally correct, yes it is fine to live and die by your instincts.

In this spot, had your instinct been correct, you should have folded pre-flop; you were a big under-dog. So if your instincts were working correctly, you would not have taken a weak hand liek AJ into this pot vs KK/QQ for a decent part of your stack and facign a 3bet.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
-I pay attention to my table. That's why I said to myself ok this guy will get bust out with his K's or Q's even when there's an ace on board.
...and the roughly 84% of the time you do NOT flop an Ace, you will call/fold a good portion of your stack. Your stack is not deep enough at 34BB to take that risk here if you think the villain has KK/QQ.

Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
-Be honest. If you didn't see his card would you put him in A9o?
As played, no this does not look like a typical hand for A9.
Based on your read, no I would not expect A9.

There ARE a lot of player types who will do this with A9 though, but I'd have to know a lot more about your actual table mates and their play to really say if I would suspect A9o here or not.

Hope it helps.

-JDean
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:59 PM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
thank you to

django66

tomcrockpot

panickypoker

for your analysis. appreciate it.

*yes, I think it is the safest route just get out of the way.

How about implied odds?
-I have 35 bb's. the villain (got more than mine) who 3bets a little aggro.

How about trusting your read?
-my read and instincts keep telling me he really got K's or Q's and I know i will get paid off if I hit my Ace.

**or just be safe? get out of the way and go on the next hand---I just don't like this option because I play to win--

Well, the result said I should have to get out and be safe...

need more analysis on this one the more the better

thank you again guys.
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 08:59 PM
(#7)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
[-I pay attention to my table. That's why I said to myself ok this guy will get bust out with his K's or Q's even when there's an ace on board.

-Be honest. If you didn't see his card would you put him in A9o?
.

ok, post flop you played this hand against your villain only but you completely ignored the original raiser as well, any reads on him ?

Last edited by Django66; Fri Dec 09, 2011 at 09:03 PM..
 
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Fri Dec 09, 2011, 09:11 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
or just be safe? get out of the way and go on the next hand---I just don't like this option because I play to win--
Just because your hand looks good doesn't mean you need to win the pot. Focus on plays that will result in you winning the most chips. When you only have AJ, and there's a bet and a raise in front of you, and you're out of position, you stand to lose chips if you get involved more than you stand to win them. If calling or raising will probably lose chips, folding becomes the most profitable play.

As for implied odds, you only have implied odds if you're likely to get a lot of chips if you make your hand. If you hit an ace on the flop, KK isn't likely to go all-in.

As for trusting your read, that's fine, if your read is good. You're not psychic though, so make sure your read is good before you trust it. Only you can know how good it is.
 
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Sir JDean(your the man) - Fri Dec 09, 2011, 09:16 PM
(#9)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Sir JDean, (BRAVO BRAVO CLAP CLAP) I bowed before you.

This is the most complete hand analysis I've ever get.

I'm so satisfied with all your answers. Really answered all my questions.

Yes, definitely I'll check that video. My read is off definitely in this one. I need to hone my skill in this one.

Your right, I should have folded my AJs if my read is KK/QQ. Why would I call if I know that I'm way behind like 70/30 as you said.

I think I thought that 35bb's is deep enough to call 3bet.--(I'm wrong here)

yes your right again that I'm pot committed after calling post flop.

Again

SIR JDEAN

Kudos to you.

thank you so much.

One day you'll be in my list to thank for when I ship this tournament Big $11

One Time Big Time
 

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