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drawing to the nut flush

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drawing to the nut flush - Sat Dec 10, 2011, 01:35 AM
(#1)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Hello guys, in this particular hand I decided to raise in LP with a weak suited ace hoping to steal the pot or get called and hit a strong flop having position. Unfortunately the button called and had position over me, bur fortunately I flopped a flush draw and had great odds to draw so I called. The turn didn’t complete my draw, and the bets (raise and reraise) weren’t that inviting, so I decided to fold, having a terrible sandwiched position. Furthermore, I could’ve been drawing dead to a boat (KJ was definitely on their ranges).



At showdown, the best hand was trips and the river could’ve completed my flush. I know I did a good laydown given the scary board... but in the case that the board was no threat to a flush (only possible straights), would I consider calling a full pot turn bet (or if he overbets the pot) if the stacks were deeper, there were more aggressive players involved in the hand and had good implied odds? I know that the only logic behind this is that if I do hit the flush, I will win a big pot, but is this particular scenario +EV in the long run?
Thx for the help!

Last edited by SUPER RASCAL; Sat Dec 10, 2011 at 01:38 AM.. Reason: question mark missing
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 02:09 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I like the way you played the hand, except for your preflop bet. You don't seem to have a clear idea why you made it, because you say in your post that it's supposed to be a bluff (hoping to steal the pot), and a value bet (get called and hit a strong flop). I can tell you that the bet had virtually no bluff potential given its size (limpers usually have little respect for their own chips, so they're really hard to get off a pot), so your reasoning seems flawed. Perhaps the bet size was perfect anyhow, but it's worth giving some thought.

Generally speaking, I wouldn't call a full pot-sized bet on the turn of a paired board with only a flush draw against any opponent, but with some really good reads, there might be a special case where I would. If the board weren't paired, it's still not something I would do without some excellent read, but every case is unique. If you have any similar hand histories, we could do a mini case study of nut flush draws on the turn.
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 06:46 AM
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XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
BronzeStar
typically a flush draw has 9 outs so you have a 36% chance to win from the flop
thats using the 4 + 2 rule

turn is 36 % to win
river drops to 18% chance to win

factor in the board is paired and odds are even worse
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 07:45 AM
(#4)
FLsnookman's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 565
Also IMHO it seems a lot of people like to play K J so when the flop comes I can see dumpin the hand right there.
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 03:39 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,841
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
trying a steal on level one is normally not a good idea. You still have all the maniacs and calling stations in.
Your preflop raise is a little light (3BB+1BB for each limper) is to raise to 100. You also could have limped in (with A and bad kicker) too.

If any of the opps made a larger bet on the flop, I'm mucking it then, but for 20 chips.... you do have a flush draw.

No problem with the way you played the turn. The smaller bet prices you in, but when there are 2 raises, I'm folding, especially with a paired board, because even if you hit the flush, you might not have the best hand.
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 03:52 PM
(#6)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Thnk u all for the awesome reviews guys!

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I like the way you played the hand, except for your preflop bet. You don't seem to have a clear idea why you made it, because you say in your post that it's supposed to be a bluff (hoping to steal the pot), and a value bet (get called and hit a strong flop).
Regarding the pf raise, I guess I was just trying to keep my aggressive image, without a solid post flop plan really. I'll fold these weak type of hands in the future this early in the tourney as the blinds aren't big enough to be worth fighting for. Btw, thx again for the help and (PanickyPoker) I'll be more than happy to post any of my hand histories to discuss more about nut flush draws on the turn.

That's all folks!
 

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