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turning a mediocre hand into a bluff

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turning a mediocre hand into a bluff - Sat Dec 10, 2011, 11:38 AM
(#1)
kk2106's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 8
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

Hi guys,
1st of all i would like to thank JDean for the analysis of the 1st hand i ever posted for review in PSO and I'm so glad I did.. what a review that was.. I was enlightened after i read the review.. So here's my second post..
I think my raise preflop was pretty basic.. On the flop the villain makes a small donk bet and i decide to keep the pot small and just call on a scary board to see what happens on the turn.. on the turn again there's a small bet and i decide to call again hoping for a free showdown on the river..Now the river is whr i think things get interesting.. Again he makes a very small bet of 150 on the river and sensing this as weak i decide to shove on the river in order for him to release exactly the hand he called with or ( unlikely ) a small flush.. But he makes the call nonetheless with his set on such a board..
Now I would really like to know whether the timing of my bluff was good and he just made a donk call on the river or I played the hand bad and if I did how could i have had played it better?
Thanx in advance..
PS: Judging by some previous plays of the villain he seemed like a good player and capable of making some good laydowns.. 1 more thing also pl tell me how to hide the results as in my previous post I was asked to but i still don't know how to do that.. Sorry guys I'm really new at this..
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 02:58 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
This is actually a pretty ugly hand for you; not necessarily because you did anything hugely "bad", just due to circumstances. Let's break it down...

Pre flop, you start here with about 48BB. That amount gives you a pretty open play book normally, but a 3bet pot pre flop starts to get pretty large, and a committment decision begins to loom as well.

Your hand, KK, is certainly one which likes to see a big pre flop pot though, as it is the 2nd nut pre. As such, I think your 3bet sizing is a little bit small at 150 more to go.
Please note, your bet is still within a "standard" sizing, which calls for raising anywhere between 1.5 times the open raise (135 more, 225 to go), and 2.5 times the open raise (225 more, 315 to go), so I am not saying your 3bet sizing is 'bad", just that I think the circumstances call for a 3bet more on the high end here. Consider...

You read this player as being "good".
If so, you have to consider that he may well adjust his start hands for position, right?
If he does, wouldn't it be reasonable to assume that he may hae a hand strong enough to call a LARGER 3-bet than you made?
since there is only 1 hand which is better than your KK, and all other hands have no more than about 30% equity against you, don't you GAIN VALUE if your 3bet is slightly larger, and gets called?

Granted, after the hands are flipped over, it is quite likely a player with reasonable skills might have mucked 66 to 3bet sizing of 300 or 325, and that is BAD for you; but the info you had upon which to base your decision at the time pointed to a larger standard raise sizing getting you a call here. This is a very "picky" point to be honest, but you may want to factor things liek that into your decisions to get max value.

On the flop, things are quite ugly for you. 3 spades, you have no spade, and the villain donk leads into your 3bet small.

Your CALL of that bet leaves you quite close to a committment point, at about 23% invested.
About the only way I like this would be if your intent is to move all in on ANY non-spade turn.
This weak bet smells a lot like a blocker bet, and the most typical hand which would seek to block you here is a flush draw.

There is really little chance of you blowing a flush draw off the pot on the flop with an immediate all in, and if you are facing a flush draw with an A (quite likely because of the villain's position UTG), you are a slight under-dog with about 48.4% equity. You really do not want to get all in as a race on this depth of money 42BB in your stack), so if your intent is to launch over any non spade turn bet by the villain, your call is ok.

The turn comes with a 4th spade, and the villain makes a small lead again.

Calling the 150 lead on the turn puts you at about 33% invested, RIGHT at a committment point.
This means if you are reluctant to shove all in to bluff the spades now (as you should be, because it is quite likely the 4th spade made the villain), you really cannot afford a call/fold if the villain suddenly launches a bigger bet on the river. That means you should limit your loss NOW by folding. Afterall...

If you had called the turn bet, putting yourself 33% invested, and saw a LARGE river bet, do you think you'd have been able to call it?

There are a lot of micro players who think it is really "tricky smart" to bet small on the flop and turn, then value bet big on the river. What these folks are ACTUALLY doing is laying fat odds for people with hands that could be drawing to a BETTER hand than their's, and they are also denying themself VALUE in the pot which they may have gotten from hands like yours.

The only way you should be going along if someone seems to be trying to "walk the dog" on you is if YOU hold a strong draw (and a call gives you good pot odds or implied odds), or you hold a hand which tends to be BETTER than some of the weak hands the opponent may be betting to try setting up a big river bluff. On the flop, you had a hand which could call a small bet in hopes it was a bet designed to block you from betting more to price him off a draw, but by the turn, with 4 spades on board, you have a pretty WEAK holding actually. It is highly un-likely even spiking a K on the river would have made you the best hand.

The turn was the place to muck.

You called though, put yourself at a 33% invested point, and gave yourself a VERY tricky river decision.

By this time, I will be really honest, I could see a CALL on the river by you, even though that takes you deeper than a 33% committment point.
Doing so leaves you with about 27BB, and while not great, it is better than busting out of the MTT.
The 4 spades on board simply represented too big a threat to your hand to want to risk a bluff, and the fact you did not try the bluff on the turn, when the pot had already grown pretty large in comparison to your start stack, leaves you VERY little chance of being called by worse.
The fact your jam on the river lays aobut 2.6 to 1 odds for him to call on ANY spade means you have very little chance of folding out any spade this villain would have led the river on as well.

...and as you saw, your failure to bet the turn also encouraged him to believe his SET might be good.

Result: he called and you busted.

So the bottom line here is that you should have gotten out of dodge on the TURN, when the threat to your hand significantly increased and you had no real re-draw.
If the turn had come a blank, you MIGHT have had the ability to rep a flush by jamming. At least a jam then, on a blank turn, MIGHT have gotten you a call by worse.
I think the trying to turn shove into 4 spades, when you have no spade, might have been a bit too risky to try really, so your only option really was to fold the turn.

Hope it helps...

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 10, 2011 at 03:44 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 04:14 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
If it were me, I'd have raised a bit more preflop, probably to about 300.

That's a tough flop for you, all spades. With the opp making a small bet, I'd want to play very cautiously here and I'd just call their bet, as you did.

When the opp bets again when the 4th spade hits, I'm mucking on the turn. Even if you get another king... you can't beat a flush (what I'd put the opp on). I was very surprised when they turned over 66 for a set, as any opp betting with 4 spades out there should normally have the flush.
 

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