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dunno if this was right

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dunno if this was right - Sat Dec 10, 2011, 11:52 AM
(#1)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
BronzeStar


So this guy basically built his stack by re-raising and making people fold. I knew i was in front here but i never expected the call even tho i wanted him to. Will i win more than i loose in these spots ?
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 03:46 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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If he was very frequently 3betting, AND if you had seen him call in spots like this with weak Aces (AT and under), you can expect to be ahead, and your move is a little risky but ok. Consider...

You start the hand with about 54BB.
You raise to 3BB, and he 3bets to 9BB.

If you 4bet his weak range, you will be making it right around 19 to 24BB or so to go. If the villain will tend to FOLD to that amount, then fine, go ahead and try it. But if he is too likely to CALL that, then lead the flop, it is pretty "meh" for you. You see...

That is 4Bet sizing quite comitting for your stack.
With the 60%+ chance of at least 1 over card coming to your TT when you do not flop a set, and with your read that this opponent is almost certain to be leading at the pot on the flop, this is too risky an amount to put in then fold. A call for the rest of your chips would be too risky with even 1 over card on board as well. So a 4bet being called puts you in a very tricky spot.

Flatting is also not all that great for the same reasons, although you'd be facing a fold off of only about 16%; still not something you LIKE to fold though, but a lot more possible.

So this is indeed a tricky spot for you...

A lot of what would go into your decision to ship or fold here would be how OFTEN he will 3bet oop.
For my personal level of risk assessment, I'd need to see around 60%+ equity to jam here, and that means you have to put the villain on a pretty WIDE 3bet range on the order of 25%+.

That means he has to have 3bet at least 1 raise in 4 when oop. (That is VERY aggro).

If he is very aggro, a flat to set mine OR to willingly stand if your T is an over pair, may also be better than a shove. Being aggro, he may well make a lead bet that is large enough to give you a 20 to 25% stack addition, even if he does not call a flop shove by you.

If he will CALL an insta-jam, and give you upwards of 60%+ equity versus his entire 3Bet range, then the jam ends any chance of you making a mistake here, but it also gives him max chance to suck out on you if he calls.

So in the bottom line, based on the info you give, it FEELS like your jam is ok.
but that villain has to have a pretty WIDE 3bet range oop to make it so.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 10, 2011 at 04:04 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 03:52 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
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what kind of tourney is this? cash mtt or league?

If it's a league game, then I wouldn't shove 50BB preflop with 10's. I'd have called their raise and saw what happened on the flop, then try to outplay them after the flop.

In a cash tourney, I'd have still probably just called their re-raise preflop and tried to outplay them after it. With the hand that the opp had, you're a 56% favorite... but that means you're going to lose almost every other time you're in this situation and get ko'd from the tourney.

You need to win some races to win a tourney, but with 50BB left, I'm not really looking to shove in a coin-flip situation.
 
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Sat Dec 10, 2011, 04:01 PM
(#4)
m.bisland's Avatar
Since: Apr 2010
Posts: 1,260
BronzeStar
$0.25 45 man. Guy was really loose and blind stealing 9/10 hands this is why i shoved over him.
 

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