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Over played or simply unlucky?

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Over played or simply unlucky? - Tue Dec 13, 2011, 06:11 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114


Did I over played this hand considering that it was very early in a mtt. In hindsight maybe I should not have reraised that big and should have tried to keep the pot small. But the two players who called me were very active and calling raises with weak aces from varying positions so I wanted them to pay for outdrawing. Also maybe I should have bet small on the flop and then proceed with caution on the turn since it was an ugly turn card.

Although I did consider checking on the turn with a view that it might checked down on turn and river but by the turn card I had already put half my stack in the pot and I felt I had to go with it.
 
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Tue Dec 13, 2011, 06:15 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
I think your line was fine to be honest, and you just got un-lucky insofar as he had the re-draw and hit it. It happens. Let's break it down by street...

PRE FLOP:

Your hand wants to play a big pot. As such, you want to be re-raising after the raise, if only to limit the size of the field if you can. This makes your KK play better.

The size of your re-raise is good, as it is slightly larger than 2 times the amount of the raise. It is within a standard sizing amount, and on the high end, where it deserves to be.

It only represents about 15% of your stack though, so it does not lock you to the pot in the un-fortunate event a truly BAD flop comes.

The only thing we have to consider is that this is now moving us to within about 1 bet of around half pot away from a commitment point. That is going to color our later decisions.

FLOP:

You flop top set on a coordinated board.
You lead 2/3rds pot.

I like this bet sizing. This is quite nice, as it prices out draws in the 3 way pot, but leaves you with enough chips that if you absolutely MUST fold, you can at least have a decent amount of chips left.

The C-Bet also serves to make you a lot LESS bluff-able, as your aggression on this all broadway board is almost never going to be a bluff y you; someone cannot risk the fact YOU flopped the nuts and try bluffing you, see?

If someone HAS out flopped you though, they may jam over you, and with max chance to make a boat still, you are pretty stuck calling.; at least I know with top set, I am not folding very often at all with top set and about a 28% chance to spike my boat...but if you are going to be scared to bet here on that basis alone, you are probably playing too "scared".

So overall, I like your flop play.

TURN:

That turn is ugly, but it is really not THAT ugly, consider...

You bet strongly on the flop, so anyone with a modicum of sense is not still in the pot with JUST a flush draw.

The 5 does not figure to really connect well with anything else someone might have and still be in here.

This means the 5 may mean you are facing someone with ADDITIONAL outs, and not necessarily an immediate indication that it has seen you beat...could it, yeah, but it does not have to mean that at all.

As you are half way in the pot off your entire stack, and as you do still have re-draw outs to the boat if you ARE beat, I can see the rationale behind your shove. There is really nothing wrong with that as it charges max price to those who may have simply increased their draw outs, there is reason to do that on top set.

I do not see anything wrong with your action at all.

RIVER:

As played, you got exactly what you wanted: the villain was drawing with 1 card to come to just 10 live outs.

That leaves him only about a 22% chance to suck out, and he is doing so at max cost. That is exactly what you want.

...what you don;t want is him hitting as he did.

Still, that is down to luck, and is not within your ability to control. All you can control are your decisions, and throughout the hand it looks like your decisions were solid.

Keep that up, and it will turn out positive in the long run.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 06:40 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 13, 2011, 10:29 PM
(#3)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Thank you for taking the time to analyse the hand and your feedback. Sure it helps and pokerschoolonline is a very good source of information and improving ones game.

At the time I felt I played that the hand OK, your feedback confirms that but I just wanted someone else's point of view.

The following hand is similar to the previous hand I posted however I am in position. It is from a 90 man SNG when play is down to 3 tables. The objective obviously is to make the final table and possibly try to finish in top 3 spots.



Would it have been better play to flat call the flop and shove the turn?

Last edited by deadeyz; Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 10:35 PM.. Reason: wrong handplayer link got copied
 
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Tue Dec 13, 2011, 11:02 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Really, that takes reads to say for sure, and you give no info on these opp's.

Just from the results, that the guy who won put himself in a spot to double you on just a gut shot draw to the DUMB END of the straight leads me to think he is probably not folding AT ALL after he picks up the additional flush outs. I mean seriously, not even a gut shot to top straight and he is calling off there?

If you had the read that this guy would allow you to double through him this weakly, then your shove on top set on the flop is fine. Even lacking that read, all it takes is that you notice he tries those donk lead bets (donk leading = calling a raise oop, then betting out ahead of the raiser), to make you want to put him in. His bet stuck him pretty hard here afterall...

The key thing is that you will get PAID more often than not by the horrible mistakes like this that opponents make, but only if you put the chips in to allow you to do so. Look at it like this...

If you had waited to jam the turn, wouldn't that flush card be a yet another "threat" to your set?

Not only is it a card which might dry up YOUR willingness to go with your set, but isn't it also possible that it dries up the willingness of opponents on straight draws to CALL?

The point being this:

If you feel your hand is best, but it is vulnerable to cards which may come to dry up your action OR it is vulnerable to being drawn out on, you are better off BETTING. That allows you to derive maximum value from the mistakes your opponents might make, AND prevents you from losing "customers" when cards come on later streets that may make them reluctant to call.

so again, this is bad luck that he caught running cards to suck out on you, but at least you made him pay max price for the chance.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Tue Dec 13, 2011 at 11:04 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 13, 2011, 11:10 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
if the opp is willing to do that with 67 off, make sure you make a note on them... for future use, as most players play these tournies over and over.
 

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