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Big $2.20: Very Interesting River Spot, Concealed Non-Nut Straight vs. Overbet

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Big $2.20: Very Interesting River Spot, Concealed Non-Nut Straight vs. Overbet - Tue Dec 13, 2011, 10:01 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
About 30-40 minutes into the tournament. Only 4 hands on villain. The only useful info I had was that he limped into the pot.

Preflop is pretty standard for me. I was a bit concerned about the SB rejamming, but the players behind me were tight enough to warrant an attempt to isolate. Flop isn't interesting. I checked back the turn because I figured that the seven did not help my perceived range, but it did improve a small fraction of the villain's range (flush draws OTF), and I knew that I could always drill a jack on the river to take back my money.

The river is where things get really interesting. I make my straight, but the villain leads for well over the size of the pot. I can make a case for all three options available to me, and I ran my clock a bit on this one. What're your thoughts?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 2.2 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t2745)
MP1 (t2950)
MP2 (t3160)
MP3 (t2825)
Panicky (CO) (t5250)
Button (t11959)
SB (t1411)
BB (t5727)
UTG (t3560)

Panicky's M: 70.00

Preflop: Panicky is CO with Q, 10
2 folds, MP1 calls t50, 2 folds, Panicky bets t200, 3 folds, MP1 calls t150

Flop: (t475) 9, K, 4 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Panicky bets t275, MP1 calls t275

Turn: (t1025) 7 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Panicky checks

River: (t1025) J (2 players)
MP1 bets t1400, Panicky ???
 
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Tue Dec 13, 2011, 10:37 PM
(#2)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
I'd raise all in. He has a hand like T8, J9, 99, or JJ enough to call you here and he's pot-committed. Yeah he pretty much always has a monster hand here, but T8 and JJ certainly qualify. You will of course run into a flush a lot, but he can call your shove with a lot worse.
 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 03:18 AM
(#3)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
I'd raise all in. He has a hand like T8, J9, 99, or JJ enough to call you here and he's pot-committed. Yeah he pretty much always has a monster hand here, but T8 and JJ certainly qualify. You will of course run into a flush a lot, but he can call your shove with a lot worse.
Now now, this would be valid in HU play where draws are pretty much worthless (compared to FR/SH).
There is no real value in raising (way too often you will run into a flush, other often you will just split and seldom you will win after a call [more often because he will fold]).

Folding is out of option, we are too strong. Raising i would throw off the window too, i doubt that it's ev+ in long run (but it would be if it was HU). So i guess the lesser of all evils is to just call.
 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 10:29 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
2$ tourney? They'll call your repop with as little as two pr. I'm puttin his last 1000 in. I think he thought you gave up on the turn (which you did)(to help realize equity for free or to give up when you dont hit) and is trying to bet you off your hand. unbeknownst to him you binked the river. Get his whole stack if it wasn't a total airball bluff. with my limited experience at this buy in level, and with the way this hand went down to this point, I'd say he rivered two pr. get his stack..Just my .02
 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 12:18 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
for me, this is going to be based on reads.
In the 2.20's that I've played, there are many players that will be betting light and will miss straights or flushes, especially straights that are possible on the board. Also, in the ones I've played, the players will bet if they hit any flush (some will slowplay, but the majority won't).
Many players that have been in them that I've seen would make that river bet with AK or KJ or K9.

I'm at least calling their bet here and shoving if my read on the opp says that they will make that river bet with anything less than a flush. They could have the flush here but since most players at this level will make a river bet with much less, I'll take my chances and shove most of the time.
 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:44 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
As I was reading this, I was thinking that this was just the way I would have played this hand (if I'm the villian) with a hand like JJ that included a spade. I hit trips on the river, but I would be scared of the flush, so the overbet is designed to make you fold anything less than the nut flush.

I wouldn't put Panicky on QT, because I wouldn't raise that hand in the same situation. This is a big leak for me, I know, and I'm working on better ranging skills this week. Just thought I'd give you an example of the nit side of things, if Panicky shoves I'm folding in this situation. If I'm Panicky, I just call to conserve chips since it's still early.

 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 02:42 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Here were my thoughts:

A river overbet in a situation like this is unusual, because it's so big. In this case, I'm almost sure that it's because the villain caught something on the flop or turn and was regretting their turn check because they think that they lost value. I feel like they hit something rare, and are seeing the hand ending, realizing that they haven't actually gotten much money. They're overbetting the river to extract a monster pot from a monster hand.

The question becomes, what did they catch? There are nine sets that make sense (99, 99, 99, 77, 77, 77, 44, 44, 44), and there are eight nut flushes. Two pair doesn't really make sense to me (what're they playing? K9? 74?), and I actually think that flushes are somewhat unlikely, because they're not all that rare. Sure, Ax of spades is the nuts, but you don't need validation after playing AJs, so a bet slightly under the size of the pot makes sense. You do need validation after playing 44. I think that a set here is the most likely hand, but there are far more flushes in the villain's range if he would play any two suited cards and overbet his flushes like this.

The case for folding is easy. An overbet looks strong, and my hand is not the nuts. He's telling me he has a huge hand by making such a huge bet, and I can't beat even a baby flush. The case for raising seems straightforward. Nobody bets 60% of their stack intending to fold to a raise, so if I decide not to fold, raising makes sense. But if he actually will fold his sets to a raise, assuming that I have the obvious flush, then raising is really, really bad.

That's what went through my head. Very interesting reading what everyone else has to say.
 
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Thu Dec 15, 2011, 12:05 AM
(#8)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
That's what I was thinking too Panicky...so I'm guessing you chose to ship it?
 
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Thu Dec 15, 2011, 12:17 AM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yeah, you called it the closest. I shipped, he tanked a bit, then called off with a set of nines.
 

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