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SNG £1.50 18 players I can win this - ouch!

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SNG £1.50 18 players I can win this - ouch! - Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:15 PM
(#1)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Being the chip leader in the money was I too rash with my SB shove over button raiser?

Had just read poker school Odds and Outs earlier in the day thought I'd apply it and moan about a bad beat or not?

Opponent:
2 outs if I have an over pair from flop to river
odds 100 - ( 2 x 4 ) = 92%
probability 92 / 8 = 11.5 / 1

 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:19 PM
(#2)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
I hate that shove, just hate it. Yes - you are not folding AK pref 3 handed, but you don't just shove it like retarded monkey either. Make it 3-4k, be ready to call his all-in.
 
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Wed Dec 14, 2011, 01:48 PM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
I wouldn't have shoved pre. I would absolutely 3-bet to about 3600 and be ready to call a shove. This is the one of the two opps that can hurt your chip stack if you lose, so I'd want to raise and see a flop if I could, but if the opp 4-bet jams, I'm calling.
If you shove, you're normally only going to get called by a better hand and be either in a race or dominated.

If you raised to 3600 and the opp called, then I'm absolutely shoving the flop with top 2 pair (opp should fold 44 here, as any pair that you have on the board only gives them 2 outs).

Even if the opp folds to your 3-bet pre, you're still gaining 2250 chips (about 20% of your stack) and at this point in a tourney, increasing your stack by 20% without any resistance is a good thing.

When you shoved you were only at 46% equity in the hand and will lose more than you will win. To win a tourney, you will need to win some races, but I think you could have done better here by playing it differently.

Last edited by JWK24; Wed Dec 14, 2011 at 01:51 PM.. Reason: add equities
 
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Thu Dec 15, 2011, 11:19 AM
(#4)
ForrestFive's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 2,036
Thanks.

I had considered a "3-bet - what if opp calls - and I miss the flop" scenario.

Am I going to C-bet with a AK draw (is this out of position?) and checking shows weakness. This opp would over pot bet with a good ace on a low flop. But with 4s who knows.

So AK 3-bet if called and I miss flop check and fold to a pot bet?
 
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Thu Dec 15, 2011, 11:26 AM
(#5)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
You are first to act OTF so you simple shove. If I 3-bet someone in a live game and he just calls it, i pretty much c-bet blind before flop is dealt (because calling 3-bet is THAT weak).
 
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Thu Dec 15, 2011, 12:20 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
If they just call your 3-bet and do not 4-bet shove preflop.... I'm shoving the flop, regardless, 100% of the time here.
 

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