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Set on Coordinated Board

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Set on Coordinated Board - Fri Dec 16, 2011, 03:16 PM
(#1)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
As this was an unraised pot, I wasn't confident my set was good, so I checked to see what my opponents were going to do. Everyone checked, so I felt I had the best hand. When the ace came on the turn, I bet small to guage interest. With the 5 on the river giving 4 to the straight, I am wondering about how much I should have bet on the river.

 
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Fri Dec 16, 2011, 07:07 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
On the flop, you're going to be ahead the vast majority of the time. Go ahead and bet, because if a spade falls on the turn, you're going to kick yourself. Checking has merit if you're doing it to allow someone to catch up, since I'd roughly estimate that 75% of the time on this flop, neither villain even has a pair.

On the turn, by betting small, you're mostly just keeping the pot small with a big hand, and allowing villains with flush draws to have a super-easy call. Since the ace likely hit someone, that's actually a great spot to bet full-pot or overbet the pot, because if pairs of aces are going to call, you might as well get max value from them.

The river is scary, but since you really haven't done much to narrow anyone's range, it's hard to say if it cracked your set. I'd lean towards betting a non-scary amount, like one-third of the pot, and folding to a raise.

It should be noted that you had ~10bb at the start of the hand, you hit a set, and you managed to get nowhere close to being all-in by the river. This is where having a plan for your hand is a good idea. When you complete your SB preflop, consider how you're going to get all-in if you hit your set, not if you're going to get all-in.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Fri Dec 16, 2011 at 07:10 PM..
 
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Fri Dec 16, 2011, 07:33 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Joy, this is a bit too passive.

To be really honest, when you call in from the SB with 33, about the best you can hope for is a set. You got that hand, and then were reluctant to bet it even a little bit.

I will grant that the board is somewhat coordinated, but at this point there is only 1 possible straight that beats you. There are however, a LOT of scary cards that could come for you here that increases the threat you are beat.

In spots like these, you really want to be betting to deny odds to but to invite a call.

On this flop, you really need to bet at least half pot.

By doing that, you should define your hand a LOT better, as well as charge draws to get there.

As played, if you check to slow play, you need to realize that nothing really changed with the A on board EXCEPT more people may be willing to call. Your 250 lead was too small, as it laid in excess of 5 to 1 to call. That is the right price for any one drawing at a flush to stick around, thus it is -eV play for you.

If you were worried still about the straight, then you really do not want to be calling half a bet to set mine there.

So next time, try to not live in fear of "monsters under the bed" with a strong hand like a set. There will be time to pot control if someone calls you, and you still have re-draws to a boat.

As played though, you simply allowed the draws to stick around TOO LONG, and cost yourself moeny you might have gotten in, and increased your chances of being drawn out on.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Fri Dec 16, 2011 at 09:47 PM..
 
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Fri Dec 16, 2011, 09:08 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
more in a moment...
OMG are you still typing?

lol
 
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Fri Dec 16, 2011, 10:01 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
preflop: perfectly fine. You've got a small pair and want to try and hit a set.

flop: I think you've really got to bet here. There could already be a straight and there is also a flush draw. The opps could just have 2 overcards or a pkt pair too. You need to bet enough to price the opps out of a draw and to get value from anyone that wants to draw or that has a pair. I'd have bet about 75% of the pot (normally 1/2 pot is enough to deny flush odds, but you need to bet a bit more than that due to multiple opps being in the hand).

turn: same thing. You need to bet enough to deny odds for a flush (and hope that either or both opps have an A). Here, I'd be betting about 1/3 pot. 1/4 would work if only one opp, but you need to bet a bit more since there are 2 opps.

By betting 250, it's 17.9% for the first to call, 15.1% for the 2nd to call. If they have spades, they think they have 9 outs of 18% equity (while 2 of their outs are counterfeited, as they'll give you a full house, so they really have 7 outs or 14%). If they think all 9 are good outs for a flush (or more outs if they think 2 pair with Ax spades would be good), instead of pricing them out... you really priced them in and your bet should be called by them instatntly.
 
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Fri Dec 16, 2011, 11:10 PM
(#6)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
Balance of the hand:

joy7108: bets 990
Gela1960: calls 990
*** SHOW DOWN ***
joy7108: shows [3h 3d] (three of a kind, Threes)
Gela1960: mucks hand
joy7108 collected 3630 from pot

I did play passively, I was trying to slow play a bit, but also worried I would scare away my customers. I tried to size my last bet to make up for the slow play, but I wonder if I could have got more.

I'm a natural nit, I'm trying to be more aggressive, but its not always easy. Thanks for all the analysis, you've all given me lots to think about.

 
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IMO - Here's a better option - Sat Dec 17, 2011, 02:39 AM
(#7)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
As this was an unraised pot, I wasn't confident my set was good, so I checked to see what my opponents were going to do. Everyone checked, so I felt I had the best hand. When the ace came on the turn, I bet small to guage interest. With the 5 on the river giving 4 to the straight, I am wondering about how much I should have bet on the river.
You can call to set mine, but I think you have a better option:

As it stands, we know nothing about this tourney, the cost of the tourney, or the players you’re up against. We do know that there are 40,887 chips at the table; I assume this is either a 45 man or 90 man ‘micro tourney’ (due to annma777’s horrific bet). Either way you need to chip up. In the last post to this thread you gave us a clue as to your table image; as a ‘nit’ I assume you have a tight image. Even some weak players that don’t pay attention will realize when a player is inactive and doesn’t raise much. An AI may take down the pot, and net you 1025 chips.

I’m always concerned about very short stacks making odd plays, but saying that, I also know, bad players will make bad plays. ‘annma777’ just bet 1BB from a 3BB stack, and Gela came along for the ride. You’re sitting on a 12BB stack; IMO I would shove! This puts a lot of pressure on Gela, and he will most likely fold no matter what annma777 does. You’re hoping that they both fold, but annma777 should call; he’s getting 5:1 odds, and needs these chips to have any chance of getting back in the tourney. If annma777 calls and Gela folds, you’ll be risking 675 chips to win 1475 chips. If annma777 is slow playing AA, so be it, but there are many more possible hands that you’ll racing against for a great price.

Good luck at the tables! Happy holidays!
 

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