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River - To bet or not to bet?

River - To bet or not to bet? - Sat Dec 17, 2011, 05:52 AM
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114

The hand is from 10NL cash game and the opp has been playing very loose (few hands b4 this opp limps with Q,6o in utg+2) so his bb defending range is wide.

Firstly on the river should I bet for value? I am pretty confident that I have the best hand but at the same time if I bet there, only the hands which have me beat going to call in that spot. So generally I tend to be cautious in similar spots, is this the right play or am I loosing value by being too cautious?

Secondly I am not sure about bet sizes on the flop and turn, should I be betting more on a draw heavy boards to charge max. price to someone who is drawing? If betting on the river is best way to go about, should I bet the same amount (65%-70%) as on flop and turn and if I do get raised more often than not I am probably beat so I need to let go the hand. right??

Sat Dec 17, 2011, 12:42 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
preflop: std raise is the correct play, which you did

flop: You have an overpair to the board, that has a flush draw. When the opp checks, you definitely need to make a value bet. You also need to bet enough to price out the flush draw and possibly a flush/straight draw combo. You bet 43 cents (66%), I'd have probably made it a bit more than that (75-80%) since there could be a combo draw.

turn: The board gives a second flush draw The opp checks again, so I'm discounting Q 10 diamonds from their range. Anything that strong should have bet at least one street. You definitely need to value bet again here and I like your bet size here of $1.20.

river: the 9 of hearts is a big scare card. The heart flush hits, along with two different straights gettiing there (KJ or J8). All of these are a part of the opp's range. However, there are hands that the opp has in their range that you are ahead of (AQ, KQ, QJ, 89, etc). Due to this, I'm making another value bet and I'd want it in the same type of range as the others (65-70%). You don't really want to change this up here, as it'll look out of line if you raise or lower it by a large amount. They could defintely shove back though (and any raise from them will be a shove) with EITHER a flush OR air too.
You could also make a case for checking it, but since the opp played passive the entire way, if it were me, I'm value betting.
If the opp shoves over you, then I'm going to base my call off of my read for the opp. If they have played passively and shoved/raised the river before... were they playing tight or loose when they showed cards? Unless my read says that they will only raise/shove the river with the absolute nuts, then I'm calling it.

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