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K,Qs vs button Shove

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K,Qs vs button Shove - Sat Dec 17, 2011, 09:32 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114


$11 mtt down to about 375 players, already ITM but objective is to make the final table to make it worthwhile.

Not an eventful hand but just wondering whats the right play in this spot. Is calling there profitable in the long run. I felt folding was on the weaker side but if we could be up against A x or small pp so felt there is no point gambling with 22bb stack.

When it got down to about 145 player the following hand took place.



Could I have played it any different? I suppose I could have shoved pre-flop but didn't felt right shoving 20bb stack pre-flop. When this happens it drives you up the wall, I mean whats the opp thinking defending his bb with 2,4o? I guess I could have bet small on the flop and got away from the hand if there was any resistance.

Cheers guys.
 
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Sat Dec 17, 2011, 09:47 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,822
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in the KQs hand, two questions.
1) was the opp stealing much from the button?
2) had he shown down any marginal hands, especially recently?

If the answer's yes, then I'd highly consider calling here. If the opp was not stealing much and was showing down good hands, then I'll let it go until I have a bit better hand (broadway ace, pkt pair). Reads here will mean a lot with knowing what to do.
Basically, if the opp is shoving a wide range of cards, it will be profitable.... if they are only playing real hands, it won't be profitable.

AJ hand

preflop: no problem it's how I'd have played it

flop: when the opp checks first, since I have a draw only, I'm checking and peeling a card. I don't want to put my whole stack in on only a draw. Take the free card and re-evaluate on the turn. If you miss the turn and the opp makes a big bet, you can get out, if you hit it, then do whatever you can to get all their chips in by the river.
The only made hand you could really have is a low set and that normally isn't raising preflop. By shoving here, you're basically telling the opp that you either have 2 overcards to the board or a flush draw. They have 2 pair and beat either, so it makes their call easy.
 
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Sat Dec 17, 2011, 09:50 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hand #1:

Calling in this spot can only be a "best guess", based upon the incomplete info you have on this opponent.

All I can say is that IN GENERAL, a truly big hand here, AA/KK/QQ, is probably looking to extract more value that a shove might bring (unless, of course, you are a loose caller).

IN GENERAL, only 2 un-paired hands dominate you: AK/AQ, and only 3 pairs dominate you: AA/KK/QQ. Based upon what you know about this villain, you have to judge how MUCH of his range those hands may be.

Another factor here is how YOU honestly rate your skill in relation to the rest of the field left in the event. Making a fair assessment of that let's you set a risk tolerance level for yourself with a stack this size (22BB). The more you feel you are equal, or a bit under the average skill level left in the event, the more ready you should be to court races for stacks on 22BB. If you feel that you are MORE skilled than average, then you should not really be seeking races quite yet...or at worse you might court them but only as the favorite side (on a pp) to give you a slight advantage.

You see, in this spot unless the villain is REALLY WIDE, or REALLY TIGHT, the chance is pretty favorable that your true equity lies somewhere north of 40%, with a race quite likely. This sniffs to me like a weak Ace, a small or medium pp, so maybe a weak 2 broadway card hand (like AT or KJ).

If the villain is tight and somewhat passive, then this might be a shove for value with a big hand, but versus a more normal player they will b wide enough to shove marginally better hands that your KQ, as well as some hands you might dominate (like KJ or QJ). That means the REAL answer to whether you should call or not is how ready are you to risk being WRONG, or risk losing versus someone who has less than 50% equity (a race type situation).

The stronger your game is, the less you should be willing to take the race, and the weaker you think it is, the more you should be willing to accept a race.

Looking at your hands so far, I think you, based on the types of hands you are posting only, do not need to call at all here...you can probably find a 60%+ spot to get your stack in.


Hand #2:

Unlike the other hand you posted earlier with AJs, you are in MP here.
AJ is fine to raise in this spot.

When you flop the nut flush draw with 2 board overs, a very STRONG DRAW, there is nothing wrong with a c-bet, but all in is a very "value owning" action for you here. Consider...

Versus any 1 pair hand here (except AA), you are actually a math favorite with all your outs. any 1 pair hand which hit this board is a big dog to you, and any pp from JJ to KK is a small dog to you (about 51%, as long as they do not have a h). That argues for aggressive action...

BUT...

An all in is too aggressive.

That is a bet which is un-likely to get called very often by a 1 pair hand. so if 2 pair hands and sets are here against you, they ARE likely to call, and against those you are NOT a favorite.

Your goal in this spot should be to bet something as a semi bluff to get value from hands which might CALL you for when you spike, but to avoid sticking yourself too hard to this pot. A standard C-Bet of somewhere around half pot will do that.

NOTE: Your stack size is such that a half pot C-Bet after raising 3BB to go pre will be quite committing for you. This is a primary reason why many players move to a SMALLER pre flop standard raise sizing of around 2.5BB to go when money falls to the sub 40BB range. It makes a standard half pot C-Bet not quite as committing. In this spot, the strength of your draw, and the likelihood of you improving, or seeing passive play from the BB, is enough that I'd still be willing to put about 1/3rd of my chips in for the chance to take this down without improvement.

continuing...

If that C-Bet gets called, then you must credit the villain here with having some piece of the flop, and probably go into a pot control mode until your hand gains more showdown value with improvement. If the villain RAISES your half pot lead on a C/R, you must assess his likelihood of doing it on a 1 pair hand, and form your action around that, but what you do not want to do is put all your chips in and make it likely he can ONLY call with a hand that you are not ahead of at all...see?

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Sat Dec 17, 2011 at 10:15 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 17, 2011, 10:24 PM
(#4)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
in the KQs hand, two questions.
1) was the opp stealing much from the button?
2) had he shown down any marginal hands, especially recently?

If the answer's yes, then I'd highly consider calling here. If the opp was not stealing much and was showing down good hands, then I'll let it go until I have a bit better hand (broadway ace, pkt pair). Reads here will mean a lot with knowing what to do.
Basically, if the opp is shoving a wide range of cards, it will be profitable.... if they are only playing real hands, it won't be profitable.

AJ hand

preflop: no problem it's how I'd have played it

flop: when the opp checks first, since I have a draw only, I'm checking and peeling a card. I don't want to put my whole stack in on only a draw. Take the free card and re-evaluate on the turn. If you miss the turn and the opp makes a big bet, you can get out, if you hit it, then do whatever you can to get all their chips in by the river.
The only made hand you could really have is a low set and that normally isn't raising preflop. By shoving here, you're basically telling the opp that you either have 2 overcards to the board or a flush draw. They have 2 pair and beat either, so it makes their call easy.
K,Qs Hand:

There were not many hands going to show down. The opp was playing fairly tight as he got involved in 3 hands out of 20-25 total hands since he got moved to the table.
Hand 1. 3bets and then folds to 4bet
Hand 2. 3bets w/ 8,8 and calls an allin 4bet for 1/2 his stack with 8's
Hand 3. Calls an allin with Q,8o in bb

So I guess he was playing tight or he card dead, but still didn't make sense to me shoving 21bb stack on the button.

A,Js Hand:

I know I played that abysmally so I guess I can't complain there.

Thanks for your analysis.

Cheers
 
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Sat Dec 17, 2011, 11:51 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
duuuuude...

I would not go so far as to say you played the AJs hand "abysmally". did you possibly set yourself up to win a very small pot, or lose a good chunk, yes. That is not good, but the flip side is that a normal C bet sizing would have put you right at, and a bit over, the normal 33% commitment point.

You will see a LOT of times me, and the other Hand analysts saying that if yo are going to go across a commitment point, you may as well move all in instead because you SHOULD NOT be folding.

I mean if you are in a worst case spot, you still have about 38% or so chance to double thru a set, and on your stack size, when still a good bit away from the bubble, you may NEED that double up if you can get it. If you do catch the nut flush, and it holds, I would have still pointed out the same "mistakes" I saw in your play, but those mistakes are going to feel a lot less painful...

So while you do need to look at this as a mistake, you can at least console yourself that if you thought there were a good chance this guy would call off here on a 1 pair hand, you may have had reason to suspect you were ahead on the math. You stack then could justifiably gamble on hitting with better than a 50% chance to double...right?

On such tiny things turn the difference between a good and bad decision in poker.

so while not great, and while you did make mistakes, you did not necessarily pley that hand abysmally.

Afterall, you at least got the ability to review it and hopefully learn from it, right?

 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 09:20 PM
(#6)
KyeBuff's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 23
Haven't posted in ages, since taking a break but here's my opinion.

Hand one:

Whether you call here is totally read dependent, how many BTN's has this guy opened? With his stack size any monster hands are unlikely to be open shipping there, big A's and big pairs, will make a small raise to disguise it as a steal.

It also depends on how much of an edge you have over the table, no point calling off with a hand like KQ if you feel you can outplay your opponents. WIthout any specific read or history with villain, then it's definitely a fold but it wouldn't surprise me if you were at slightly ahead there or flipping.

Hand 2:

I really think you should make the pre-flop raise smaller (2-2.25x), this keeps the pot smaller if we miss, and will allow us more manoeuvre post flop. You flop a flush draw with 2 overs, with about 17BB's behind... You can almost expect to cbet this type of board and get a fold 80% of the time IMO.

If we make it 2.25x, the pot is only 9800... cbet around 3.8-4.5k (if he calls, then he is likely to check the turn allowing you to check back, to get a free river card on your FD. If he raises, well i'm getting it in there, expecting a small pocket pair or some kinda 7. we're flipping against any pairs TT and under. Your flop overbet jam isn't repping much apart from a flush draw or some kinda A high hand.

FWIW his call pre flop is absolutely terrible and you should of got the blinds and antes .
 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 09:40 PM
(#7)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hand 2 you are missing the fact that you have 12 effective big blinds as you are not accounting for the ante's. If you raise 4800 chips and fold this at any point you should have simply folded pre! Shove your 12 bb's pre! Better hands will fold and we are already in the money! We are not winning tourneys 12 deep!

Gidee Up!

Last edited by 19honu62; Mon Dec 19, 2011 at 09:44 PM..
 

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