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Blinded by my Kings...

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Blinded by my Kings... - Sun Dec 18, 2011, 12:49 AM
(#1)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
This is from my 2nd PSO Open Skill League Freeroll. Question, how can you tell that your opponent has hit his set based solely on betting patterns?

 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 02:15 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Answer to your question:

There is one universal tell (ok, NEARLY universal)...

If someone has a hand that is really strong, one they are almost certain is the best (like a set usually is), they will tend to put money in the pot across multiple streets, and will usually bet or raise at least ONCE.

That little piece of somewhat obvious "wisdom" is applicable to your situation, NOT because it will tell you if you are facing a set, but because it generally will tell you that, if there is a very appearent threat to your holding, you opponent is likely to be holding that hand which beats you.

In this spot, even if you cannot read the opponent for a set, by the time he has fired his 2nd barrel at the pot, you SHOULD have at least credited him with an ace. If he holds an ace here, you are drawing VERY thin at 2 outs. That is quite a "meh" spot for you to be calling off this much of your stack.

By the time you did act aggressively, the pot had grown so large, and your stack had shrunk so much, that even if the opponent had held a WEAK ACE, he probably would have been forced to make a crying call when you shoved all in.

While there is no clear way to be certain you are facing a set (the power of a set is that it tends to be one of the most disguised strong hands since you only need a single board card to make one), you SHOULD be asking why you continued to feed this pot when the most likely hand for the villain to be betting on, a single paired A, kept betting at you.

You allowed yourself to call your way to a pretty hopeless spot, and the fact he held a set instead of a single paired ace is pretty moot here.

You probably are going to want to work on that leak.

Hope it helps.

-JDean

Last edited by JDean; Sun Dec 18, 2011 at 02:18 AM..
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 03:34 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggervacio View Post
Question, how can you tell that your opponent has hit his set based solely on betting patterns?
Technically you can't, especially not before it's too late. You can, however, tell that your risk is too great for you to proceed, and that you should fold. I'd say you got that message on the flop. You don't have to make things complicated by attempting to read exactly what the villain has, you just need to learn to estimate your risk, and if it's too high, fold.

Another good question to ask here is, what were you planning to do on the turn after calling the flop? If the villain bet small, would you call, raise, or fold, and why? If the villain checked, would you bet or check back and why? Do either of those lines feel like they're profitable to you? As soon as you start predicting how events will unfold in later streets, you'll be able to better respond to the actions at hand in the present. Don't wait for the turn to prepare a plan for what you're going to do on the turn. Think ahead.
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 03:44 AM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,517
(Head Trainer)
You can't know he has a set, but what you should be doing is ranging him... The board is very dry and ace high... what's his range to lead into you? Since there are no draws present, his range generally a pair of aces or better, or air. Will this opponent ever lead air to bluff at you here? If you think it's likely you can call once. It's probably not that likely, I would expect him to show us an ace usually in this spot (or better as was in this case, a set). Just pass right on the flop, or if you think the opponent is cheeky, maybe call one time. But mostly just fold immediately without a decent read that they will bluff in this manner.


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PFR too big - Sun Dec 18, 2011, 08:13 AM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggervacio View Post
This is from my 2nd PSO Open Skill League Freeroll. Question, how can you tell that your opponent has hit his set based solely on betting patterns?
There’s a multitude of ways your opponent can play a set. That depends on the type and quality of player they are. You need to have some kind of read to determine your next move when facing the initial donk on the flop.

I believe you got yourself in trouble with your PFR. 4X is way to high at this level; in a cash game that’s fine, but this is a tourney. 2X-2.5X is plenty to do what you want done at this level. You want to limit the field, build the pot, and protect your stack. As it turned out you were facing an SPR of just under 2.5. In most cases you should be willing to get it all in by the turn with top pair. Two factors going against you; (A) the flop has an Ace (just under 23% of the time this is the case), but if you opponent has an Ace, it drops to just over 17%; (B) this is a PSO tourney, and if you lose early in the tourney, you will lose a lot of points!

As it was played and without any reads, I think it was fine to make the flop call. When faced with a larger turn bet, I feel you are risking too many chips, and are basically committing yourself to the pot.

Good luck at the tables! Happy holidays!
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 08:28 AM
(#6)
ggervacio's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 341
Wow, there are lot's of meaningful advice here. Appreciate it all, though it will take a while for me to digest it all at once.
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 08:36 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by ggervacio View Post
Wow, there are lot's of meaningful advice here.
JDean tends to do that.
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 09:26 AM
(#8)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
JDean tends to do that.
Which is greatly appreciated
 

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