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Flop top set, villain shoves turn? (5NL FR Cash)

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Flop top set, villain shoves turn? (5NL FR Cash) - Sun Dec 18, 2011, 08:37 AM
(#1)
zZ.Ma$kin.Zz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 34
Hi guys.

Interesting spot here.

It's 8-handed in this 2c/5c cash game.The table dynamics at this point have been quite tight/passive. More or less standard 3x/4x raises pre-flop. Very few flops seen. No-one at the table has been overly-aggressive. Only couple of shorties, rest are decent stacks. About 5 players are regs/multi-tablers. Anyhow....

I'm dealt in MP. It's folded to me so I decide to open & raise it up 4x. HJ / CO/ BT fold. SB calls. BB folds.

SB stats @ this point : Hands: 48 / VPIP%: 17 / PFR%: 9 / Call open: 10 / Tot. Agg%: 36

Flop:

At this point, I'm obviously kinda pleased but cautious with it as the board is somewhat co-ordinated (although it's 2 cards to a flush but 1 card to possible multiple straights).

The SB decides to donkbet 30c into pot of 45c. My thinking here has he flopped bottom or middle set or is he trying to 'buy' himself that 1 card to the straight? If so, then I'm wanting to get the money in or at least make it hard to chase his draw.

But would he bet 2/3 pot on a draw? (I had my doubts so put him on middle/bottom set).

I raised his initial 30c bet just under 4x to $1.17. He calls.

Pot is now: $2.79

Turn:

SB insta-shoves! (Now I'm bricking it....lol)



My motto, 'If in doubt......Pokerstove it!'

I put his range @ JJ-55,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,JTs

On the flop I've 92% equity. On the turn 82%.

Before sitting down to this cash game I had been doing some extra 'homework'. And as it happens, reading various articles on 'turn' betting. One sentence stuck in my mind....

'A all-in/shove on the turn usually mean the nuts!'.

So my thinking now is, does the SB really have the goods? Did he really call a MP raise from a tight player with QJ sooted or even 76 sooted? I am giving the player too much credit for a monster? (perhaps a weakness in my game I'm trying to eliminate)

More importantly....do I put my trust in Pokerstove & make the call or go with my gut instinct (which was to fold) ???

I'd love to hear your thoughts.

Cheers.

p.s. I'll reveal the outcome post-mortem!

Last edited by zZ.Ma$kin.Zz; Sun Dec 18, 2011 at 08:54 AM..
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 09:00 AM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
It is a really interesting spot and I really think a lot of it is down to the villain's read on you: How tight were you playing? Tight as in nit?

If you were playing really nitty, then a call pre with QJx, even QJo or any suited connector or small pck pair is feasible. I like your raise pre! The villain bet on the flop could be a draw, could be a small set, but I am more inclined to the set. I would probably have reraised more.

The shove on the turn is interesting, either he has the straight or he has a smaller set and is hoping to get you off the hand. The read here is so player dependent: I am never folding here unless I am 99% sure that the villain never bluffs; I just could not lay down my set even with such a coordinated board because I have ten outs and if he has the straight they are clean outs!

I will go out on a limb and say he had the smaller set; we will never know though if you folded

Edit: He could also have As or Ks, just hit me afterwards.

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sun Dec 18, 2011 at 09:03 AM..
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 09:16 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I like your thinking. From my experience though, when people overbet shove like this, it's usually some sort of protection bet. When people have the nuts, they do often make big bets, but they usually don't just jam the pot the moment they see that they have it. They frequently slowplay to some extent, and usually won't overbet the pot. If you were on a hand like top pair and a draw, I'd suggest folding here because this is definitely a strong move on the villain's part, but it looks to me that he's either afraid of the straight, or he's afraid of the spade flush. That means he could have a weaker hand than a straight.

If he's afraid of the spade flush, then he likely has a flopped two pair, set, or a turned straight. If he's afraid of the straight, he likely has two pair, a flopped set, or the bottom-end straight. If we give him credit for two pair or better on the turn, then my calculation puts your equity between 53% and 60% depending on the hands the villain would call with preflop. More than 50% equity generally means it's a good call. There are enough weaker hands to justify calling, and if you are against a straight, you can always suck out!

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Dec 18, 2011 at 09:19 AM..
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 10:49 AM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
preflop: std raise and call by the opp

flop: you get the best you can hope for.. top set. When the opp donk bets into you, I'd have raised a bit less here and made it 3X instead of 4X. Raising to 4X screams set to the opp.

turn: the opp has one of 4 things here.... QJ for made straight, 9 10 suited, small set or air... and we're ahead of all but one of them

They could have the straight, but even if they do, we've got 10 outs to beat it. I'm calling.
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 12:14 PM
(#5)
SUPER RASCAL's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 47
Hello zzmaskingzz!

If your image is tight, he could easily range you AJ+, JJ+ and it’s possible he didn’t spot the flop cards as scary. Thinking the flop was no good for u, he tried to bluff u off the pot. The scary turn card completes a straight and he’s possibly going to try a big bluff If u usually fold to a big turn raise like u said. On the other hand, he could be value betting thinking his two pair 9T was good here. He could also hold a middle or bottom set or be semi bluffing a flush draw on the turn. Generally with an SPR of 1.17 I’m calling him down with my top set (and 10 outs to hit the boat on the river) unless you have a particular read that this opponent NEVER bluffs and ONLY value bets the nuts. If he’s got the str8 and moves in protect it from the flush, try to make a note on that, but it really doesn’t look that of a scary bet to me…

Hope it helps buddy
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 02:29 PM
(#6)
Puciek's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 771
Finally someone who actually cares about learning poker.

First is first your stove math is spot wrong because you didn't put % of how often he will have given hands (here he is much more likely to have say 99 than KT) so you can't really listen to that 82% as it is spot-wrong.

You didn't really include any of the important stats (beside aggro factor) so no help there (what is his aggro OTT? How often does he 2-barrel, how often does he donk bet [and with what]?). Then o we would have something to work with.

Now let's get to the hand. Pref it's obvious raise, size seems ok. OTF i don't like your raise at all. If he indeed makes such horrible block-bet (which doesn't really serves it's purpose) then he is most likely NOT fold his draw to our reraise (given that he got a draw). This is a place where we need to make a decision.
Do we put him on a set, or a draw? If we put him on a draw, we should just call down the hand (maybe try value raising river if no flush/straight). He is doing the betting for us here, he is giving us value on our set, let's let him. Granted that we won't win humongous pots by that, but we won't put ourselves in horrible spots either.
If we put him on a set - we should just go all-in. He will have to call with a set, and if he got his draw and calls with it - we just earned quite a few bucks right there as it is a horrible call. Again, yes we do lose value here from charging his draw, but it's much better to win this pot right here than to keep on guessing if the draw falls.
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 03:56 PM
(#7)
zZ.Ma$kin.Zz's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
It is a really interesting spot and I really think a lot of it is down to the villain's read on you: How tight were you playing? Tight as in nit?

Edit: He could also have As or Ks, just hit me afterwards.

Cheers,

TC
As tight as a nit on a night out in Nitsville!! lol

Although, I may have given that perception to my opponent as I try to play a more TAG style but unfortunately went a bit card dead until this point. So yes, nitty is a perfectly good assumption.

Regarding him having As or Ks, he didn't come across as a tricky player in order to 'smooth' call. His 3bet stat was zero. Had he 3bet me then the alarm bells would have gone off. Even so, with both of us >80BB's deep, I'd have still called to see a flop & have position. Hence my initial range in the OP.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I like your thinking. From my experience though, when people overbet shove like this, it's usually some sort of protection bet. When people have the nuts, they do often make big bets, but they usually don't just jam the pot the moment they see that they have it. They frequently slowplay to some extent, and usually won't overbet the pot. If you were on a hand like top pair and a draw, I'd suggest folding here because this is definitely a strong move on the villain's part, but it looks to me that he's either afraid of the straight, or he's afraid of the spade flush. That means he could have a weaker hand than a straight.

If he's afraid of the spade flush, then he likely has a flopped two pair, set, or a turned straight. If he's afraid of the straight, he likely has two pair, a flopped set, or the bottom-end straight. If we give him credit for two pair or better on the turn, then my calculation puts your equity between 53% and 60% depending on the hands the villain would call with preflop. More than 50% equity generally means it's a good call. There are enough weaker hands to justify calling, and if you are against a straight, you can always suck out!
This had crossed my mind that he was possibly scared of something. So I was leaning slightly towards a huge semi-bluff to get me off the pot. Then I remembered what online pro Mathew Didlick (chipstar1) said about bluffing @ the micro stakes. Basically, in his experience, it's not profitable in the long run to do any kind of bluff (not sure if I agree with that though 100%) @ the micros simply because of the money involved. If players bet big they generally have something big. I believe The Langolier said the same thing in one of his training sessions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
preflop: std raise and call by the opp

flop: you get the best you can hope for.. top set. When the opp donk bets into you, I'd have raised a bit less here and made it 3X instead of 4X. Raising to 4X screams set to the opp.

turn: the opp has one of 4 things here.... QJ for made straight, 9 10 suited, small set or air... and we're ahead of all but one of them

They could have the straight, but even if they do, we've got 10 outs to beat it. I'm calling.
Totally agree here. I analysed the hand in Holdem Manager afterwards & realised that was a mistake. My opponent must have picked up on this & took full advantage putting me under maximum pressure by shoving the turn by representing the straight. Very good play by him.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SUPER RASCAL View Post
Hello zzmaskingzz!

If your image is tight, he could easily range you AJ+, JJ+ and it’s possible he didn’t spot the flop cards as scary. Thinking the flop was no good for u, he tried to bluff u off the pot. The scary turn card completes a straight and he’s possibly going to try a big bluff If u usually fold to a big turn raise like u said. On the other hand, he could be value betting thinking his two pair 9T was good here. He could also hold a middle or bottom set or be semi bluffing a flush draw on the turn. Generally with an SPR of 1.17 I’m calling him down with my top set (and 10 outs to hit the boat on the river) unless you have a particular read that this opponent NEVER bluffs and ONLY value bets the nuts. If he’s got the str8 and moves in protect it from the flush, try to make a note on that, but it really doesn’t look that of a scary bet to me…

Hope it helps buddy
Your thought process is understandable, but from the previous hands played by the villain, in no way had he got 'out of hand'. He wasn't too aggro up until the point where he actually donkbet the flop. His first if I remember correctly. Thanks for your insight though.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Puciek View Post
Finally someone who actually cares about learning poker.

First is first your stove math is spot wrong because you didn't put % of how often he will have given hands (here he is much more likely to have say 99 than KT) so you can't really listen to that 82% as it is spot-wrong.

You didn't really include any of the important stats (beside aggro factor) so no help there (what is his aggro OTT? How often does he 2-barrel, how often does he donk bet [and with what]?). Then o we would have something to work with.

Now let's get to the hand. Pref it's obvious raise, size seems ok. OTF i don't like your raise at all. If he indeed makes such horrible block-bet (which doesn't really serves it's purpose) then he is most likely NOT fold his draw to our reraise (given that he got a draw). This is a place where we need to make a decision.
Do we put him on a set, or a draw? If we put him on a draw, we should just call down the hand (maybe try value raising river if no flush/straight). He is doing the betting for us here, he is giving us value on our set, let's let him. Granted that we won't win humongous pots by that, but we won't put ourselves in horrible spots either.
If we put him on a set - we should just go all-in. He will have to call with a set, and if he got his draw and calls with it - we just earned quite a few bucks right there as it is a horrible call. Again, yes we do lose value here from charging his draw, but it's much better to win this pot right here than to keep on guessing if the draw falls.
First of all, thanks Puciek, I try to care

Secondly, I had a sneakiy feeling my range in pokerstove would be off as I haven't been using it that long. I've more or less been relying on my instincts. In saying that, he had shown a tendency to lean towards passivity up until this hand. From his VPiP/PFR stats in my OP his c-bet stat was zero. Flop agg% (17), Turn agg% (75), River agg% (0). His Turn agg% stat only shot up to 75% after this particular hand. I can't remember what it was beforehand!

Yes, I realised the flop donkbet re-raise was a mistake later on in the HEM replayer. My thoughts post-flop when he donkbet after calling pre-flop was that he was trying to control & buy the pot. My re-raise & subsequent call affirmed this that he was on some kind of draw. Had he flopped a set I believe he wouldve re-shoved my re-raise if I'm honest.


Really appreciate all the feedback guys. It's the reason why I joined PSO. Always great to read a different & obviously better 'train of thought' from more experienced players.

Cheers.

So.....down to the outcome.....this is what happened.........



The on the river gave me serious palpitations...lol

Even though the outcome was a relief, part of me can't help but feel that I made a -ev call. I let my head overule my gut instinct which has generally served me well. And then....on the otherhand....I ask myself, how many times in the past have I folded the best hand???

We live & learn & learn & learn....never stop learning!!

Regards

Paul (aka zZ.Ma$kin.Zz)
 
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Sun Dec 18, 2011, 04:01 PM
(#8)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Well he had Qs, not too far out

I am not so high up on the +-EV side of things but I definitely think it was the correct play, neat hand!

Cheers,

TC
 
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Thu Dec 22, 2011, 08:27 PM
(#9)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,499
(Head Trainer)
The 2/3rds pot donk bet is often a 1 pair type hand. It's hard for him to have AT Tx since 3 of the tens are accounted for, but he's going to have stuff like A9, Tx, or JJ-AA (you're not including pairs above JJ, but I think you should be including QQ-AA, flatting QQ here in his spot would be fairly normal, and although he should generally 3B KK and AA sometimes players don't. The turn looks a lot like a protection bet against a board that got scary, or a value bet with a hand that can beat a premium pair but feels vulnerable, like a set or 2 pair. This is an automatic call, very unlikely he'll show us a straight here, and our equity is stellar against his range even including QJ in it.


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