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busting early in $11 mtt vs bad lag. Pot control / damage limitation?

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busting early in $11 mtt vs bad lag. Pot control / damage limitation? - Mon Dec 19, 2011, 06:47 PM
(#1)
Jon_Allan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 4
Villain played 47 hands (inc. hand for analysis) at the tournament table
Hands hero saw villain play:

Villain has these stats over the 47 hands: vpip/pfr/3b/steal/af/wtsd = 40/15/10.5/0/1.8/56

Hands villain saw hero play:

Hero has these stats over 68 hands vpip/pfr/3b/steal/af/wtsd = 11/9/0/67/2.0/12.5
It may be noteworthy that, over the 47 hands villain saw, the hero had two opportunities to steal and took both - I'm not sure how to get stats for the 47 hands villain saw from HEM but that is the only relevantdifference I think (do let me know if you know how to get this from HEM for some selected tourney hands!)

The question is: Should hero have taken a different line in the following hand to control the pot (and hence not bust), to put the villain to the test earlier (and hence to win a smaller pot - or at least give worse odds to draw), to just fold at some point (yes it's only tptk - did hero misread history*?), or is there something else that the hero missed in the history? * Hero fully understands top pair top kicker is vulnerable in general (against KhQh hero would be a small dog), but does not think it's all that vulnerable against this villain given the observed history and was happy to get in there with such great equity against the perceived range (maybe that was incorrect?). In hindsight the pot got bloated on the flop and hero feels a mistake or maybe multiple mistakes were made that cost the tournament at such an early stage, hence this post.

The hand for analysis:

Any positive feedback would be much appreciated.

Last edited by Jon_Allan; Mon Dec 19, 2011 at 07:08 PM.. Reason: better wording
 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 07:08 PM
(#2)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,812
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preflop: like your play and if that's your std raise for this level, no problem

flop: I like your c-bet, but I think you need to make it a larger bet. The opp could have a combo draw (flush and straight) and you need to price this out. In the end, they didn't have it, but they could have. If they had 12 outs, then they have 48% equity, so you need to bet more than this to price them out (I'd have went between 2/3's and 3/4's pot).
When the opp raises, while you do have TPTK, the opp can have a draw or already have you beat (set, 2 pair, higher pkt).
Due to this, I'm just calling here, not re-raising the opp. Then re-evaluating on the turn. You may or may not be ahead now, and you don't want to get into a raising war unless you're sure you will have the best hand after all 7 cards. If you see a turn card that you like, then go right ahead and value bet again.

Your 3-bet here is also a bit low. If you're going to 3-bet, make it at least 2100, if not 2500-3k.

You got your chips in when you did have the best hand and got unlucky, but I think there are some things you can do to play this one a bit better.
 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 07:33 PM
(#3)
Jon_Allan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 4
Thanks JWK! Very quick - did you look at the history or just the one hand?

Low cbet due to combo draws - what 3h4h and 4h5h for a gutshot + flush draw?

Agreed that my flop 3b was low - I actually did that consciously to induce further action on the flop due to how he had played top pair and much worse in the 11 hands I had observed (clearly committing himself) - a set or overpair was out of the question in my mind as I was pretty sure he would aggress oop preflop with _any_ pocket pair, and if he did not do so this time I thought "so be it". The flush draw (esp KhQh) was on my mind but I was confident he'd probably jam that to this 3b, not 4b it and I could get away there and then, when he 4b however I was confident I was: ahead of many top pair and even second or third pair hands (like he'd done before), occasionally flipping with a flush draw and very rarely behind to two pair.

So in summary I should probably just have called his flop raise and reevaluated on the turn? If so the 8c turn may well have slowed me down, and the river should have too - that is correct.

So, would you say I read too much into the observed history?

Last edited by Jon_Allan; Mon Dec 19, 2011 at 07:53 PM.. Reason: add info
 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 08:53 PM
(#4)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,812
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I looked at every single hand that you put into this thread. All the background hands, then the hand to review.

I mentioned the combo draw, because that is where the an opp could have the highest equity draw... which is what you need to look at if you want to price out an opponent. I wouldn't put them on this hand, but it's the one that they could have the most equity in a draw.

Making a 4-bet like that is normally done by an opp that wants to sucker you into a hand, not one that you're probably ahead of. I'm was actually shocked that the opp didn't turn over a set.

I'd have called their raise, then re-evaluated on the turn.
The 8 of clubs would NOT have slowed me down, it actually would have made me bet more, as you now pick up a nut flush draw, on top of the TPTK I'd have probably shoved there, as you have much more equity there than you did on the flop.

In reading into the history, you really only saw 1 hand where the opp showed cards (suited broadway connectors when they flopped top pair). That's not much history to really go from, it's good to have it, but it's a really small sample.
 
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Mon Dec 19, 2011, 10:55 PM
(#5)
Jon_Allan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 4
Thanks JWK!!

Oh yeah you are right, turn 8c would not have slowed me in the slightest!

hmm, ok I saw 7 of the 11 hands he played shown down, two with top pair medium kicker and four with worse - I noticed hand 4 says muck, I saw he held 5s5h there (maybe the replayer does not show what an observer would not see).

But anyway I guess it boils down to this: I was thinking the guy always wants a big showdown, so I gave him some rope to hang himself with when not really holding a strong enough hand. I think that is the mistake here now, therefore I should have cbet more (as pointed out), flatted a raise (not make the big mistake) and shoved that turn (plus other nice turns).

A win for forum analysis methinks - three cheers for PSO.

Last edited by Jon_Allan; Mon Dec 19, 2011 at 10:59 PM.. Reason: better wording
 
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Wed Dec 21, 2011, 06:49 PM
(#6)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
just want to try to analyze myself if I put into the same situation in this exact hands.

I will eliminate all the read first from the opp.

PRE: raise 270 in the Hijack position, I will do that also considering I have chips. SB called which is a sign of weakness. Sb wants to see the flop.

POSTFLOP: Th 2h 6c

lot of straight draws right here plus a flush draw.

SB checks and you raised 340 into a 795 pot around 40%. If this was me I agree to our Teahers I want more value for my TPTK without your read you said you him to come but this is not the board you want him to keep playing. He might outdraw you in your worst dream. I've seen a lot of these betting small flop betting small turn then when the river came. Opp in the early position shove it all in then you thought your still ahead with your TPTK not anymore opp hit his gutshot on the river then bust you out EARLY in the tournament which made it worst.

ok, you bet 340 SB 3bet 720. Here, this is warning here already he check raise you in the SB which I think is a very strong hand already if this was me I will be very caustious already considering I still have a lot of chips in play.

his 3bet yes was small but why did you not consider that now is the differrent scenario I have a set or 2 pair I just want you to come in give me more chips. Put more chips in the pot.

You can call his 3bet and take it from there but you opt to 4bet which is BAD BAD BAD.You only make the pot bigger and with this you already have yourself committed to go all in.

If you still don't want to fold to his 3bet because you got read you can't 4bet here, you can make a call then take it from there

winning=surviving

risking your tournament life here with TPTK with the action your getting most likely your in bad shape.

I will let him bluff me here if i 4bet he 5bet that great Time to give up. Opp made a good bluff at me not risking anymore with TPTK. I know I can outplay you later. I will wait for another opportunity when I think I got the best hand.

yes your right in your read, he's bluffing but he's telling you a story which for me is already believable. I will let him take away my chips and look for a better spot after all you only got ATs which is not even a premium hand.

But you got a perfect read. Keep it up. I can never put him in Q7o with that much action on the table.But you read him like a book.Smelled him like a dog.

Use your reading ability It's a great talent and very important in winning games.

Be patient next time.Let him outplay you first then try to get him back at him when you got the nuts when your opp plays like that you want to trap him. Im sure his chips will be shortlived you'll never know he will give it all up the next hand and you have AA. That's the time your looking for.

****This is the first time I tried this so don't take this advice seriously.I'm also a student here with a little experience.I just want to know what are the problems of other people so that next time I might put in the same situation as yours I know what to do.
 
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Wed Dec 21, 2011, 10:47 PM
(#7)
Jon_Allan's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 4
Thanks marvinsytan, I agree with almost everything you said there, nice post! ...except I do not agree that "winning = surviving", I used to think that, but it's not a long term strategy for a good roi% (only for a good itm%, which does not necessarily translate into long term profits); however it is certainly truer in the early stages of an mtt, so does apply here at least.

You must read opponents - find their tendencies, range them and then apply good counter strategies - but at the same time you must also understand that they may or may not be doing such things and may be better or worse at them, or could have been building a table image.

I was fairly confident that this opponent was not doing much if any of those things. This opponent was paying no attention to my tight image (he did not pay attention to anyone else's image from what I'd seen) and either assumed nothing about me, or that I was most likely just like him. I tried to take advantage as I knew he would bluff a heap and would think I would too, but TPTK on the flop was possibly too marginal to make the induce play - I've since done some Pokerstove range analysis and actually don't think it was an awful play, just a little marginal.
 
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Wed Dec 21, 2011, 11:47 PM
(#8)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
winning = surviving

for this i mean if your hand is vulnerable you can control the pot

don't go to war if you lack ammo. you can just take cover and then shoot little by little. Don't do ala- Rambo style because that only happens in a movie. It only can cause you damage than benefitting you in a long run.

If you are engage in a pot with a big stack you have to be very careful always because that means he can bust you out. With this kind of situation I would love to play for a smaller pot.

With a big stack, you can always bully the shorter stack to chip up risk free even when your all in your not going anywhere. You still have the chance.

winning = surviving

you can't win big money when your not even in the money

how can you win big if you bust out. I know you want to win it all the way but first you need to be in the money that is very important you can gamble all you want the moment your in the money that's where you use your reading ability. That's where you trust your instinct.

example your in the money

and situation like this happened

for all I care I will shove all in with my TPTK because you did your job by paying attention on the table you know this kind of opponent will 5bet you with Q7o. You got him here you shove all in your right but variance made him win. He won the pot. You lose. But at least you got something back.
 
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Thu Dec 22, 2011, 12:45 AM
(#9)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
It was not an awful, looking back it was the perfect play in that situation.

You have him in bad shape.

It was a beat that no one could ever imagined. Runner runner for a one card straight.

Variance took control. You bust out. He chip up.

but looking back he's given you the chance to get away and still be alive. Maybe we should almost thank him if only we believe his crazy story that he have a monster.

but still we would love to play with these kind of opp. It will only make poker profitable if opp like this 5bet with Q7o with air. We don't know what his thinking about this but I'm sure I would like to play with him all day long.

In case you win that pot because you are way way ahead. Your still not sure if your going to be in the final table.Yes you have a massive stack but still not guaranteed to the Final Table. You still have lots of lots of hands to do.

even if your playing great poker, you'll never know your next hand might be and you might be bust out the very next hand and all the great plays you made the last 2 hours is not important anymore because your knockout.

just like in boxing, protect yourself at all times. Look what happened to David Ortiz when he put his hands down. One jab and 1 Hook by Mr. Moneymayweather. Kaboom Lights out.

Just like in Poker. Kaboom Bust out.
 

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