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2 hands, opinions please!

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2 hands, opinions please! - Fri Dec 23, 2011, 08:56 PM
(#1)
KyeBuff's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 23
Hand One:



Ok so I'm put in a pretty trick spot with AKo here... I wasn't entirely sure what the best play is here? I don't think I love the shove much looking back, but calling his 3bet out of position, then just check/folding any missed flops seems super weak? He is NEVER light here, unless he's a fish... which I don't think he was.

4Bet/folding, Raise/Fold isn't an option... and looking back 4bet shoving, basically puts my cards face up? I had blockers for AA and KK, so it's like 4betting and praying I'm up against QQ as that IMO is the worst hand he will call with. I knew he had a monster but in these turbo MTT's I'm actually kinda happy, stacking off with near 30BB's AK as it gives me a great chance to go for the win?

I tanked for a bit, but just couldn't find a fold.

Hand Two:




Villains a TAG, nitty opening/flatting range, AFq: 83 (42 hands)

I've raised from the SB the last 3 hands in a row, he's called once I cbetted a raggy flop and he folded. This hand looks like he's taking a stand to me.

The flop is a board I cbet heads up every time, I made it a bit smaller than normal (still think 2.8k is fine) to induce a bluff. The turn is an over card but there's not many queens that will call on that flop. Only Q's that got there are random floats, AQ, Any Qdxd, Q2, Q5 and QJ. The check looks like I've shut down, so I just assume that he's going to bluff this card like 9 outta 10 times, any bottom/middle pair I assume he's checking back here.

My check call narrows my range down to of a pair of 5's, pocket pairs up to TT, a draw and also a J.

The river is such a sick card for me, flush draw and straight draws bricked, it's unlikely to be a Q and if he considers my range (and he's bluffing) then he probably needs to bet the river to win this pot.

Long evaluations from me, but this is the stuff that is going through my head during the hand and you can then see the hand from my POV.

Thoughts? Anything else I should be considering here?

Last edited by KyeBuff; Fri Dec 23, 2011 at 08:59 PM..
 
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Fri Dec 23, 2011, 11:42 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
The one thing that stands out for me here is that you don't have any respect for your opponents. Do you think they're raising with nothing?? Both opponents gave you very clear signals that you were beat, did you have some reason to suspect a bluff??

I wasn't at your table, but you don't give any reads that would indicate your villians are capable of these bluffs. You seem to be married to your hands, and that's never a good thing.

 
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Fri Dec 23, 2011, 11:53 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
You should post these in seperate threads. It's harder to review two unrelated hands in the same space.

Hand 1: He can be light here. Reads would help us know how likely that would be. If he's running 85/46/40, then this is an obvious get it in moment. If he's running 9/8 or 17/0, then it's very unlikely that he has 3bet bluffs in his range at all in which case you're likely against QQ+ and AK at best.

Also, raise/folding absolutely is an option, and superior to raise/calling when you're on a 25bb stack imo. Raise/calling might have merit on much deeper stacks, but as middling as your stack is, you need to 4bet or fold.

Hand 2 is really interesting, I think. More on that in a few minutes...
 
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Sat Dec 24, 2011, 12:21 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hand 2:

Quote:
Originally Posted by KyeBuff View Post
Thoughts? Anything else I should be considering here?
His bet on the river was significantly bigger than his bet on the turn, relative to the pot at the time. He bet about t4,000 into t10,000 (40%), then he went up to about t10,000 into t18,000 (55%). Usually that indicates value to me. Here are my thoughts on the villain's range throughout the hand.

When he calls your preflop open, his range can only be narrowed a little, because your open was very small, and he did have position taking his hand to the flop. I'm not thinking specific hands yet, but his range could be fairly wide. On the flop, when you bet and he calls, I'm thinking he was slowplaying preflop or has connected with the board with the following range of hands:

22, 55, JJ+, AJ, KJ, QJ, JT, xx of diamonds (I think a diamond draw constitutes about one-quarter to half of his range)

On the turn, when he bets small, It's hard to say why. He could be making a blocking bet/semibluff with diamonds, but I don't see why he wouldn't bet bigger. He could be inducing action with a hand like QJ or AA, but again, that's a pretty small bet with two diamonds out there. I can't really narrow his range with this bet.

On the river, though, by betting bigger, I'm thinking that he's either bluffing harder with a missed hand, or he's trying to extract value from a hand that just made the nuts. Since the second queen didn't really change much, I don't think a bluff is likely to work from his point of view, so I'm inclined to believe he got there and is holding QQ, 55, 22, or QJ. Also, since I usually find that when people significantly upsize their bets from one street to the next, it's usually because the most recent card made their hand, this looks like an even riskier call. I'd fold to the river barrel.

Another possibility is that the guy floated you on the flop and probably caught the queen with a hand like AQ or KQ. Those make sense, too.
 
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Sat Dec 24, 2011, 12:26 AM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
And, after looking at the results, I see I forgot to mention Qxd. Also a possibility, since the turn Q wasn't the Qd.

That explains the size of the turn bet. He caught, but was probably unsure about the value of his kicker. He should have bet bigger on the turn, imo. It would have disguised his range when he bet the river, and it would have gotten him bigger value overall.
 
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Sat Dec 24, 2011, 09:50 AM
(#6)
KyeBuff's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 23
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
You seem to be married to your hands, and that's never a good thing.
I agree that in the 1st hand this would seem the case, I knew he QQ+ (maybe AK). I actually feel like I don't have a problem with this generally though, I'm very capable of making a lay down if I feel I'm beat, I think I had made a decision on the turn that I was going to Check/Call any river that's not an A or a K.


Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
You should post these in seperate threads. It's harder to review two unrelated hands in the same space.
Ahh ok, I will do next time, thought I'd save some space on the forum by merging them together.. next time I'll be more selfish :P.

I forgot to put his stats up, he is running 44/44 (9 hands) and hasn't had a raised called yet, so no AFq. It's too small a sample too make a solid read, but is on the loose side. No 3bets over the 9 hand's he's played.

I guess I didn't consider raise/folding as like joy7108 says maybe I was married to the AK here, I guess I made the 4bet based on the the small sample of hands he had played so far, which look loose but he could of picked up a good run of cards.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
When he calls your preflop open, his range can only be narrowed a little, because your open was very small, and he did have position taking his hand to the flop.
Yea, I like to keep my opens small to allow more post flop maneuver, however I have been told to increase my opens from the SB to reduce pot odds, I guess that would fold out hands like Qd6d :P.

Looking back a slow play was definitely in his range here, especially as i'm opening every SB folded to me with antes in play. It may be useful to know that he snapped off my flop Cbet, now from past experience a lot of draws seem to do this, or weaker hands trying to look a lot stronger than they are (trying to slow me down etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
On the turn, when he bets small, It's hard to say why.
I didn't consider this during the hand, but we played a hand earlier together where had a top pair with a weak kicker and made 3 very small bets on each street on a pretty draw heavy board. A weak queen now makes sense here, or QdXd.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
On the river, though, by betting bigger, I'm thinking that he's either bluffing harder with a missed hand, or he's trying to extract value from a hand that just made the nuts. Since the second queen didn't really change much, I don't think a bluff is likely to work from his point of view, so I'm inclined to believe he got there and is holding QQ, 55, 22, or QJ.
Yea I agree with this completely, his range is very polarized on the river to monsters or missed draws. I feel like that if the river doesn't come a Q, then I can fold, but I doubt he makes it 10K with just a weak Q.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
His bet on the river was significantly bigger than his bet on the turn, relative to the pot at the time. He bet about t4,000 into t10,000 (40%), then he went up to about t10,000 into t18,000 (55%). Usually that indicates value to me.
I like to think I pay a lot of attention when it comes to peoples bet sizing, and can often make a good read on them. The hands I generally struggle with, is when people hit top pair with a flush draw, as they tend to bet smaller... leads to me thinking why aren't you protecting your hand against draws if you had top pair?! Definitely a leak in my game there.

Thanks for the analysis really needed some other opinions on the hands.
 
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Sat Dec 24, 2011, 12:07 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
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hand 1: Is 900 your std raise here? If so, then it's fine. If it's different, make a std raise.
When the opp 3-bets you preflop, they will normally have a pkt pair or AK. You're either tied or behind every hand in this range. Due to this and the fact that you don't have a made hand (you've only got A high), I'm flatting their 3-bet and re-evaluating after the flop.
I would not 4-bet shove here, because you're going to always be behind. You do have a hand with potential, but you don't have a made hand... and I don't want my tourney life to be on the line if I'm not the favorite in the hand (which you'll never be if you're up against a pocket pair).
30BB is too much to be stacking off without a made hand. In a turbo, I try to make that point about 15-20BB, instead of 10BB for a regular tourney.

hand 2:
first thing is that this is the 4th time you've raised in a row, so the opp will probably be calling you lighter (to try to take a hand from you and stop you from doing it)... they're also going to be expecting you to be raising light.

preflop: std raise, which is the correct move to make, as it helps to conceal your hand
flop: you hit top pair and make a c-bet, which is the correct play here too. The opp had been folding, but they call your bet here. That means they hit the flop in some way (J, set or diamonds are most likely).

turn: you get an overcard that now puts a 2nd flush draw on the board. You check and the opp bets 4k (size of a value bet). The opp now definitely has part of the board (J, Q, set, or Qx/Jx diamonds).
I disagree with the bluff comment here. The opp has been TAG/nitty and due to that, the only way they're betting here is with some sort of made hand. They're not raising your bets, just calling and playing passive.. this isn't the type of player that will bluff much, if at all.

river: board pairs a Q. The flushes miss and it takes one chance they had a Q out. You check and the opp bets again. Their bet size, 10k into an almost 19k pot, another value bet. With calling on the flop and making 2 value bets, the opp definitely has a hand here. Their range is a broadway J, Q or set. Out of this range, what can we beat, QJ or J10. The rest of the range crush us.
I'm mucking to this river bet basically every time, as out of the opponent's range, we're behind almost all of it and it's not worth taking a chance for almost 1/2 our stack when we can only win a small % of the time.


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