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Why is my Average ROI negative?

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Why is my Average ROI negative? - Mon Dec 26, 2011, 09:44 AM
(#1)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
hi..

I have been searching this forum and the internet for an explanation-to no avail.

Using Sharkscope which is bang up to date with my games, it says my average ROI is -58%

I thought an average ROI in Investments, and the financial world, was calculated by your initial investment (in my case $78) and your current profit/loss (in my case $85). I haven't reloaded, or even really dipped in to a loss situation.

So, whats tis all about then?

many thanks, Richard
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 09:47 AM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
they do not include freerolls, home games or other private games, and they miss some stuff too
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 09:52 AM
(#3)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
I have only done 2 freerolls, no private games etc.....

It is MILES out !!

I think I will take it with a pinch of salt then! But they do CHARGE people for this info..
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 10:07 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I imagine their calculations might not account for buy-in level. They don't use your bankroll as a reference, only your payouts. If you have generally lost money in small-stakes games, but have won a decent prize in a bigger buy-in event, that might explain why your ROI is negative, but your results are positive.
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 10:08 AM
(#5)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
ROI in poker tournaments is typically Net Winnings / Total Buyins * 100

Tracking sites have no way of knowing how much you have deposited.
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 10:15 AM
(#6)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
ok, thank you both for your input.

So, if I could play well, and just did Heads-UP games, I could have a really high ROI if I won most of them.

As it is I play mtt and SNG multi table, so can't expect as high an ROI.
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 11:33 AM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
ROI should not be influenced a ton by your game format. In HU poker, your ITM should be very high, but that doesn't mean your ROI should be anything special.

Also, if Joe is right, I'm pretty sure that means I'm wrong.
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 01:46 PM
(#8)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
PP, you are not wrong by what you say....I have lost 99% of my 0.02c games, of which is probably half of my games I play.

When my bankroll starts to look like its getting down, I play a 9 seat sng, ($1.50) and I have won all four (?) of them.

So its definitely connected to what stakes you play, and how many of them you do.

Last edited by WeaselBasher; Mon Dec 26, 2011 at 01:49 PM..
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 04:31 PM
(#9)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by WeaselBasher View Post
ok, thank you both for your input.

So, if I could play well, and just did Heads-UP games, I could have a really high ROI if I won most of them.

As it is I play mtt and SNG multi table, so can't expect as high an ROI.

Hi WeaselBasher,welcome to the monkeyhouse.

Expectations of your ROI based solely upon which games you play is a little "off". ROI is quite simply what it says---the RETURN on your INVESTMENT.

If you can become proficient at the Single Table SNG's and HU SNG's then your ROI will be more consistently in line over a large sample. Less wild up and down swings in other words.

If you gravitate more towards Multi-table SNG's and,especially, the scheduled Multi Table Tournaments,then you'll see more fluctuation in your ROI due to the wider variance inherent in these games.

For example,in HU SNG's it's either going to be a +100% ROI for each game played,or a -100% one as either you double your money,or you lose. No in between.

Whereas if you played say a .25 45 man SNG for instance. You could be anywhere from a -100% ROI for not cashing to a +44% ROI for the .36 prize for 7th place,to +416% for the $1.29 4th place prize,to +1192% for the $3.23 prize for winning the event. And that's just the swings in a .25 45 man. Naturally the differences in MTT's are even wilder.

And that's just for MTT and SNG play which seems to be what you're focusing on here. This doesn't include ring play,money won in the Leagues (if you play them) and money won from freeroll and FPP buy-in games. And then you'll maybe one day earn enough VPP/FPP points that you start getting paid back on them as well. Many things can be added to your ledger,while only actual monies invested for entry fees and at the tables can be debited from it.

My advice is to open up your own files and spreadsheets under Excel,for one option,and keep track of everything yourself. Use a system that tracks ALL monies invested and ALL monies won and then see what your numbers look like at whatever intervals you want to use to measure them are,be it monthly,quarterly,games played,all of the above or whatever.

By the way of you keep track of it yourself it will also resonate more so some leaks that you will inevitable run into in game selection (this IS going to happen,don't kid yoursel) will become more readily apparent.

Good luck moving forward.
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 08:48 PM
(#10)
Bill Curran's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,508
Your numbers are ever so slightly off, Moxie. For instance in the HU scenario, winning does not realise +100% profit.

If a HU Game puts $100 in the prize pool, it usually costs you $110 to enter, as you pay $10 rake.
Therefore if you win, you receive $200 which is approximately +91% profit.

Whereas, if you lose, you lose it all -100% profit.

This means that you must average a lot more than a 50% win rate to be profitable.

At the above buy in of $110 , winning eleven out of twenty games is just break even.

cost of twenty buy in = $2200 eleven wins = 11 X $200 = $2200 which is a win rate of 55%

 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 08:51 PM
(#11)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
depends on the buyin costs
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 08:54 PM
(#12)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
am i to understand correctly about an average roi at 100 games, would be 25% when 10 dollars in profit and it took 40 dollars to obtain it? Would it be a fair assesment?
YES!
 
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Mon Dec 26, 2011, 11:44 PM
(#13)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Your bankroll may be higher than expected due to rakeback(fpp's). Not sure after skimming through this thread, but something to consider.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:04 AM
(#14)
WeaselBasher's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,138
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Curran View Post
Your numbers are ever so slightly off, Moxie. For instance in the HU scenario, winning does not realise +100% profit.

If a HU Game puts $100 in the prize pool, it usually costs you $110 to enter, as you pay $10 rake.
Therefore if you win, you receive $200 which is approximately +91% profit.

Whereas, if you lose, you lose it all -100% profit.

This means that you must average a lot more than a 50% win rate to be profitable.

At the above buy in of $110 , winning eleven out of twenty games is just break even.

cost of twenty buy in = $2200 eleven wins = 11 X $200 = $2200 which is a win rate of 55%

So, from my understanding, it does vary (% profit) , depending on what game/size of field, you are playing. i.e. the 0.02c 990 player game has no rake fee.

Now, I have "opted-in" to another site, TopShark, where they have tracked me over 78 games (Sharkscope, which seems more up to date tracked 84 games since I started),

According to these two sites..

TopShark Pro 78 games, Average Roi +41%, Total Profit $6.36
Sharkscope 84 games, Average Roi -59%, Total Profit $6.00

That's a HUGE difference in ROI. Unfortunately, without subscribing to Sharkscope, I cannot see all the games they have tracked, which is 6 more games than TopShark.

I have been tracking my games on my blog, which although wasn't right from the start, will give me a truely accurate picture once I have played some more. (well, I think more accurate than relying on these sites that track you) . I will just have to forget about my first 40 odd games,..

Last edited by WeaselBasher; Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 12:29 AM.. Reason: spelling
 

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