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What to do!

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What to do! - Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:24 AM
(#1)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
This is a STEP 2 game and as many know top 2 get a STEP 3 ticket and 3rd and 4th get a replay of STEP 2.

PokerStars Game #72583771343: Tournament #487813404, $25+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2011/12/22 9:15:40 ET
Table '487813404 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Highlandbear (2020 in chips)
Seat 3: pearljam020 (2360 in chips)
Seat 5: 19honu62 (2120 in chips)
Seat 7: dedekNaKoki (7000 in chips)
dedekNaKoki: posts small blind 100
Highlandbear: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 19honu62 [4s 4d]
pearljam020: folds

What is your move?

Gidee Up!
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:30 AM
(#2)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
limp in or jam
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:30 AM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Easy open shove, imo. On 10bb, I'm pretty sure it's unexploitable, and you want to fold out as many flips as you can, so raise/calling is out of the question. If you minraise, hands like KJo might rejam thinking they have fold equity, whereas they might go away if you just ship it now. Folding is an option if you think you can fold your way to a ticket upgrade, but it's definitely on the nitty end of the spectrum. If there's any fear of the bubble at this table, that works to your advantage, too.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 10:38 AM..
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:33 AM
(#4)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
depends on game flow and opp stats esp big stack,
without further info prob 65% shove, rest fold.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:39 AM
(#5)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,034
(Community Coordinator)
A. Fold

Initially all the signs pointed to jamming pre-flop but then I decided against it.

Just a little over ten Bigs with a pocket pair at a four handed table and the signs looked good for getting involved. But we don't want to bleed chips here. If we go into the pot light we are probably getting called by the big stack and we'll end up folding preflop with just 2 outs to a set.

I'd rather wait for a hand like A 10o and shove then as we are in the Fold/Shove range.

Raiser


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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:44 AM
(#6)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
why wait for an inferior hand?
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 10:50 AM
(#7)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
i will alway shove nothing to lose.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:02 AM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by royalraise85 View Post
If we go into the pot light we are probably getting called by the big stack and we'll end up folding preflop with just 2 outs to a set.
You make it sound like if we shove, most of the time one of the guys behind us will have an overpair.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:02 AM
(#9)
electrux_hcb's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 59
Tricky. I finished 2nd in a tourney with 44's not holding up, so they are not my favourite hand. Also depends on how the other players are running. If the deep stack folded before me i'd play, if not, then i'd fold because in my experience the deep stacks usually have the run of the cards.

But really you have nothing to lose by shoving and should just go for it. If you win you are closer to the next step, if you lose then you get another chance.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:08 AM
(#10)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
of course he's got something to lose, he's playing for $55, the diff between step 2 and 3.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:26 AM
(#11)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,607
I kind of agree we need more info for example is the table going to tighten up and hope to let the big stack knock someone out.

It sure seems like a shoving spot, with the back-up of re-playing if we are crushed. but whats our table image if we push here are the other 2 going to say hmmm that chris will push any pair in this spot, or are they thinking hmmm he's been playing mega tight?

I don't like a limp, not mad about a fold (without more info) so i guess a shove is my preferred option.

Grade b


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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:29 AM
(#12)
electrux_hcb's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 59
Yeah but he gets to repeat the current step if he loses. So its not the end of the world if he does lose.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 11:57 AM
(#13)
Sandtrap777's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,310
For me it's an automatic shove (NOT a limp and NOT a call)

This is a step and he's guaranteed not to lose anything, he can start over
I don't think the short stack will call
As for the big stack, he might call and if he does, two things can happen
1) He doubles up and he's in good position for a step 3 ticket
2) He loses and tries again as he has a second life with his step 2 ticket

 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:00 PM
(#14)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,034
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
You make it sound like if we shove, most of the time one of the guys behind us will have an overpair.
More like the expected probability of an opponent hitting an overpair with 5 cards to come.

I put pocket 4's into Pokerstove against 2 other opponents (1 has already folded) on a 10% range here and the results were not re-assuring.

We came out with only a 26.7% equity here so it's not a great spot. In other words we'd lose this nearly 3 out of 4 times played.


Raiser


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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:08 PM
(#15)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
do you really think 2 opps playing 10% will call a shove ? and that those 2 opps will have hit their 10% on that hand enabling them to call?
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:12 PM
(#16)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
imo it's very important not to be content with a 2nd chance here but to go for the win.

also, to me it'snot a clear shove without further info, if i'm shoving i do NOT want a call here, so, if, for example, the sb is a liberal caller i'll fold here.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:13 PM
(#17)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
I think we should use ICM here and not pokerstove
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:17 PM
(#18)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
If the villains are willing to call with the top 10% of hands, than the probability of all of them folding is about .9 * .9 * .9 = .73 times out of 1, or 73% of the time. In all of those cases, we're +t300. If we're called, we have about 41% equity in a t4250 chip pot, so we'd end up with about a t1740 chip stack on average, for an average loss of about t400. If we lose t400 27% of the time and gain t300 the rest, that works out to a gain of about t110 on average every time we shove.

That doesn't take ICM into account, but this is clearly very +cEV at the very least. A half a big blind win is quite a significant gain.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 12:19 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:23 PM
(#19)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,034
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
do you really think 2 opps playing 10% will call a shove ? and that those 2 opps will have hit their 10% on that hand enabling them to call?
Probably not,

Like I said in my first post, shoving was my first thought.

However, I'm not going to risk my entire stack to pick up 300 chips. Maybe I'd try to limp in if I had 20 plus bigs,

So I'm not shoving, I'm not limping, therefore I'm folding.

It's one of those situations where a decision has to be made. Shoving is not terrible, folding is good too.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 12:28 PM
(#20)
Stakehorse75's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 865
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is a STEP 2 game and as many know top 2 get a STEP 3 ticket and 3rd and 4th get a replay of STEP 2.

PokerStars Game #72583771343: Tournament #487813404, $25+$2 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2011/12/22 9:15:40 ET
Table '487813404 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Highlandbear (2020 in chips)
Seat 3: pearljam020 (2360 in chips)
Seat 5: 19honu62 (2120 in chips)
Seat 7: dedekNaKoki (7000 in chips)
dedekNaKoki: posts small blind 100
Highlandbear: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to 19honu62 [4s 4d]
pearljam020: folds

What is your move?

Gidee Up!

Me, Personally, I think there are a few viable options.

I like folding here, I don't think 44 will hold on the flop.
unless
If all 3 players have shown to be tight enough to steal, I'd shove it.
or
Call, and see if you can flop a set, if you do, then you're shoving, or folding if you miss.

I'd rather the 1st 2 plays-> folding or shoving, as making a set isn't very likely, and if you call, and get raised, you just wasted 1/10th of your stack to fold anyhow.
 

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