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QTs 2NL (6 max)

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QTs 2NL (6 max) - Tue Dec 27, 2011, 02:41 PM
(#1)
Lop The Flop's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 13
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Hi guys, any advice you can offer on the following hand would be most appreciated. I think I played the hand perfectly but got a cooler on the river. All comments more than welcome. Thank you.

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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 02:49 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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PRE FLOP:

UTG at a 5 handed table, QTs is an ok hand to raise.

A lot depends on how well you read your opponents post flop though, as it IS still a "trouble hand" which can cause issues for single pair flops oop.

Nothing major out of line here, although it would be nice to hear more about your table reads as a lot of the playability of this hand pre flop is tied up in that.

FLOP:

You hit gin on the flop, not only flopping the nut straight, but also the open end straight flush draw.

You lead for 18c into a 26c pot.

The pot is multi way, and you are obviously ahead.

I do not think a bet here is out of line, but is your sizing the best it could be?

You do not provide enough info to make an assessment about that fact, but here are some things to think about:

1) The WORST draw for you is someone holding a set. A set has 7 outs on the flop and 10 outs on the turn (provided it misses the turn), for 17 total outs. Assuming a set stays for the turn and the river (as it will in all likelihood), that gives roughly a 36.6% chance to suck out.

The greater the chance of this being here, the more likely your bet is quite good.

2) Normally a KdQd or KdTd would be worse, as this would have a better flush draw, plus gut shot outs to a better straight, but you hold blockers to both these hands. A KdQx or KdTx hand would need to pick up a 3rd diamond on the turn to add outs, and as these hands would only be 4 out gut shot draws on the flop the chance of them calling your bet on the flop is quite small.

3) There are a wide variety of 1 pair hands possible, as well as 1 pair hands with gut shot or flush possiblities. The worst of these (for you) would be a K8d specifically. That hand would tend to believe they have as many as 14 live outs, but since you hold blockers to the flush you know they are really on a max of 7 outs. Your bet is probably getting called a reasonable amount of the time by these sorts of hands.

4) 1 pair hands may call LESS than the amount you bet, but they may also call your full bet amount. This is the place where reads become so critical for max'ing your value. The board texture should make 1 pair hands very reluctant to call here, but it is quite common for loose callers to fail to notice the texture, or at least let their calling instinct over ride their observations. The more your opponents are apt to call, the better your sizing is.

Bottom line:

Because of the strength of your hand (the nuts) AND the fact you hold blockers to the most common hands that might draw out on you (diamonds, with or without a straight draw), I WANT to say a smaller bet is better here. A half pot bet does not carry the worry of multiple callers for you (because of your blocker cards) that it normally would, and it would be in your interests to try keeping more people in the pot against you.

But I also cannot fault your sizing much, because you give no reads on the willingness of single paired hands to call or over call even a half pot bet. If you had provided info which said there was at least 1 or 2 calling station types here, I would say a half pot bet might be better, but you do not say that.

So I can only conclude that given the minimal info here, you can probably expect at least 1 caller here more often than not. By making your bet around 2/3rds, you tend to make that 1 call worth a lot more for you, than a half pot bet that only gets a single caller would be worth. so I gotta say if you lack info to make a more exploitative bet, this sizing is fine.

You get just 1 caller...

TURN:

The T represents one of the worst cards for you, as now any KQ beats you.

I like the fact you still fire ~2/3rds pot though (44c), as you still hold a flush draw in case you get raised, and the fact that there is only 1 hand that beats you now.

I have to ask though, what would you have done if the opponent shoved over that bet?
What were the chances that had you checked he might have bet, allowing you to fire a C/R?

While I do not see anything wrong with your line here at all, there might be more exploitative ways to get more chips into the pot here...but again that takes reads.

RIVER:

LOVE the river play.

You've fired 2 bullets, and the villain hasn't gone away.

The turn and the river tossed up threats to your nut hand on the flop, and you've thereby moved farther and farther form the nut hand.

While a lot of what might stick around will have improved to better than your straight by the river, there is also a good number of hands which may have improved to 2nd best too.

As such you certainly have calling value in your hand, but you'd HATE to see a bet by you being shoved over here. Since you provide minimal read info, an optimal line is to do exactly as you did: check/call.

Well done.

Villain had a set, made a boat, and you lost.
The key thing is, you lost about as little as you could, without costing yourself a lot of value when you were ahead.

So all in all, I have to agree: you played this hand very well, and lost about as little as you could.

Good job, but sometimes coolers happen.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Dec 27, 2011 at 03:31 PM..
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 03:53 PM
(#3)
Lop The Flop's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 13
BronzeStar
Hi JDean, Thank you for your detailed analysis, certainly a lot of food for thought. In response to you're queries...

I didn't have any reads on the table as I was only 9 hands in when this took place, and the villain had only played 6.

I bet 3/4 pot hoping to get the hand played heads up, which I managed to achieve. I expect you would be urging me to bet at least full pot if not an over bet?

On the turn I again bet 75% of the pot, as I am pretty sure I'm still ahead. Of course KQ is beating me, but with the flush outs I would call a shove. I like betting in this spot as there is now a heart draw on the board, and I don't want to give a free card to my opponent.

I agree exactly with you on the river check/call. Here I'm looking more for pot control, and get to showdown as cheap as possible. Knowing a lot of players at this level, I believe my hand still has a good chance of winning.
 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 04:14 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Looks good. A bet/fold on the river might be better, as there are a ton of hands that will call a bet but not make one themselves (overpairs, Jx, etc.) If you get raised you're generally toast and can fold. Unless you are against an aggressive player that is, in which case check/call is definitely best. I think with as passively as he's played this hand, he's unlikely to bluff you with worse, and bet/folding is probably better.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Dec 27, 2011, 07:47 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,836
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
river's a tough decision, because really either could be correct.... check/call or bet/fold. At 2NL, there are so many players that will play ATC and stay in pots, that I'd probably go with the check/call, as you did. You're going to lose some of these, but I think at this level, there are enough fish out there that will call/bet with anything, that you can be ahead in the long run... which is the bottom line (to be +$$ in the long run).


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 06:47 AM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I agree, too. Well played.

I do think that's a bit of a loose preflop open. Postflop, I would have bet a bit bigger on the flop and just potted the turn because this board hits a lot of ranges super-hard and there are a lot of people in this pot, so you're likely to get bigger bets called. Overall though, I like it.
 

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