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A,K - Missed value on turn & River?

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A,K - Missed value on turn & River? - Wed Dec 28, 2011, 12:34 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
25NL cash game and the following hand is about 25hands into the session so I don't have any solid reads on the opponents. Up to this point the play has been very cagey and not many showdowns apart from a couple of big hands clashing. Mostly opening raiser taking down the blinds.



Did I missed value by not betting on the turn while at the same time protecting my hand? On the river a weak lead from sb ($1.25 into $7.50) and flat call by bb, I feel that I have the best hand but the same time one of them could easily have 2 pairs. In this kind of situation whats the best/profitable course of action?

Cheers
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 03:36 PM
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PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
If you called, then I think you played it great. If you range the villains on the turn, you should probably see a lot of sets and two pairs. You should also see a bunch of moderate pairs and moderate pair + gutshot-type hands. Do you think you can get the two pair+ hands to fold by betting the turn? I think no. Do you think you can get value from the moderate hands? I think yes and no. Maybe KT-type hands will give you action, but for the most part I see the J9, QT-type hands folding, because their straight draws and pairs all suck with the board looking as it does now. I think checking back the turn is definitely the best choice.

On the river, you only have one pair, so you can't raise (unless you feel like a bluff-raise is profitable), and the bet and call are small and seem to indicate weakness, so you should never really fold. Calling becomes the best course of action here.

Curious what other people think, though.
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:21 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
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preflop: std raise, which is good, as it helps to conceal your hand

flop: it's checked to you and you c-bet with top pair/top kicker. I like the c-bet and also the size of it. Having both opps call makes this one more interesting. I wouldn't be putting either on a set, because if one of them had a set, they should be raising here due to the broadway straight draw.

turn: you can really make a case for either checking for pot control OR value betting here.
If you check, you do keep the pot smaller, as an opp could have 2 pair or a straight... the problem with it, is that anyone with an A 10 or 9 now gets a free card at a straight.
You can also make another value bet here, you will possibly lose the hand to 2 pair, but anyone with one pair and a straight draw could easily call it and there are many of these combos in their range (AK, AQ, AJ, K10, Q10, J10)
If it was my choice, I'm making a thin value bet here.

river: when the SB leads out here after check/calling the flop and turn, I'd just call their bet here. They could have 2 pair or a straight, which you don't want to raise into (because they're going to call) and your hand does have showdown value.


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 10:59 PM
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deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post

river: when the SB leads out here after check/calling the flop and turn, I'd just call their bet here. They could have 2 pair or a straight, which you don't want to raise into (because they're going to call) and your hand does have showdown value.
Thanks for your comments guys. I did called on the river and it turned out that the both opp's were holding Q,10 n they called with open-ended str8 draw on the flop. In hindsight maybe I could have got paid from a smallish raise on the river but I think more often than not only the hands which have you beat will call any raise on the river plus that also opens the door for getting check-raised in the spot.

What does such a small bet on the river usually means in this kind of situation when an opp has been passive pre-flop and previous streets? Is opp trying to induce a raise with an intention of check raising? I suppose it must depend on each individual opp.

Cheers.
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 11:07 PM
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That will be opp dependant. It'll mean different things with different opps.

Actually at 25NL, it wouldn't surprise me a bit to see an opp make a small value bet like that, then come over the top of you if you raised.


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