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$1.5 STT: AKs in BB vs. BU Open and SB 3Bet by Nitty Regular

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$1.5 STT: AKs in BB vs. BU Open and SB 3Bet by Nitty Regular - Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:19 PM
(#1)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Title says it all. The SB runs 10/9/6 over 360 hands. I consider him a good player for the $1.50 games.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1590)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1450)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1410)
Multitabling Rock (SB) (t1635)
Panicky (BB) (t1590)
UTG (t1375)

Panicky's M: 53.00

Preflop: Panicky is BB with A, K
6 folds, Button bets t40, Multitabling Rock raises to t100, Panicky ???
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:24 PM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I should note that my image is 23/19/6, with very high steal attempt numbers (and probably above average resteal numbers).
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:29 PM
(#3)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
if he is a rock, you are probably looking at AK minimum here, call and hit the nut flush lol
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:38 PM
(#4)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Super nitty multi-tabler is going to be very strong here, probably QQ+ and AK, he's never folding and AK doesn't play well vs. that range, so I would just fold this preflop tbh.


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:43 PM
(#5)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
For me it is down to how tight his opening range is: I have seen "nits" 3 bet with 6s upwards, Suited Aces, AK, AQ suited or off, and KQ and QJ suited, that is around the range you are looking at with a 10% VPIP. So it is only the top percentile of his range which has you dominated. This guy is aggressive as his PFR is nearly the same as his VPIP so he is raising the top 10% percent of hands no matter what they are.

I am certainly calling and might even consider 4 betting if I saw him opening weaker hands than Aces or Kings. It also depends on his read on you and your read on the Button as well. If you call will the BU 4 bet, if you raise will he 5 bet. Never discount any player in the hand!

I hope you didn't fold

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:52 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
For me it is down to how tight his opening range is: I have seen "nits" 3 bet with 6s upwards, Suited Aces, AK, AQ suited or off, and KQ and QJ suited, that is around the range you are looking at with a 10% VPIP. So it is only the top percentile of his range which has you dominated. This guy is aggressive as his PFR is nearly the same as his VPIP so he is raising the top 10% percent of hands no matter what they are.

I am certainly calling and might even consider 4 betting if I saw him opening weaker hands than Aces or Kings. It also depends on his read on you and your read on the Button as well. If you call will the BU 4 bet, if you raise will he 5 bet. Never discount any player in the hand!

I hope you didn't fold

Cheers,

TC
I agree it's definitely down to how tight is range is. According to the stats provided his range isn't 10%, it's 6% for 3-bets. Plugging 6% into stove AKs is actually almost dead even equity wise vs. this range. The trouble is I'm not sure how profitably we can play this post flop if we call, and 4 betting is suicide.

4-b: His call 4b/get it in range is probably QQ+ and maybe AK, our equity vs. this range is bad.

Flat: We'll have position, but vs. a nit we are not likely to get action when we flop the best hand, we'll have to give up when we miss, and will be close to commitment when we hit and are still behind. If we were super deep that would be totally different, but we're not deep enough to move him off good but not great 1 pair hands post flop. So flatting I'm not sure how profitable we can make this in the long run. We need ways to win with the worst hand before showdown, or ways to get value when we flop the best hand, and vs. a nit with this preflop pot size and stack size there's not much of either I think.


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 04:54 PM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Super nitty multi-tabler is going to be very strong here, probably QQ+ and AK
Edit: After reading TC's reply and looking back at the stats given, this is too tight for his 3b range, I still don't think continuing is very profitable, if at all, though.


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:04 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I kind of thought that cold calling would be an interesting idea because the SB might not know what to make of it. If I hit the flop, he might spaz a little and spew some chips my way. I figured that probably, though, I would have trouble making money by calling because he probably is going to have a clue what's going on, and even when I hit he'd have me crushed anyway a fair amount of the time.
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:09 PM
(#9)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
I thought the 6 was aggression factor, I did not realise that it was his 3 bet percentage, maybe they are the same thing?

I have even found that holding Aces in this sort of spot and four betting that players I would classify as multi-tabling nits will come along with 10s plus, probably even put me all in. Maybe my nit classification is a bit off

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:14 PM
(#10)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
The 6 should be his 3B%, aggression factor is a post flop number. Panicky if the 6 is something else please tell us, it can certainly make a difference.


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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:18 PM
(#11)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
***Moved***

Just put this in the right section.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:24 PM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
VPIP/PFR/3Bet

I got the wrong forum?
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 05:25 PM
(#13)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Looks like I would have had my goose cooked then

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 06:21 PM
(#14)
whu1895's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 110
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Title says it all. The SB runs 10/9/6 over 360 hands. I consider him a good player for the $1.50 games.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1590)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1450)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1410)
Multitabling Rock (SB) (t1635)
Panicky (BB) (t1590)
UTG (t1375)

Panicky's M: 53.00

Preflop: Panicky is BB with A, K
6 folds, Button bets t40, Multitabling Rock raises to t100, Panicky ???
its a call for me but then wat do i no all the best
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 07:33 PM
(#15)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
too early in the tournament

a raise and a re-raise

AKs

I will definitely get out of trouble and look for better spot no need to risk valuable chips that you can use in the future

I will definitely follow Langolier's advice

and I still have Langolier's advice in my poker mind, always win your chips 2 ways and by calling your just putting dead money

in this situation if you call and did not hit the flop which will happen most of the time, you can't continue

if you 4bet then got 5bet you might fold again

you just lose your BB run fast. another thing I learned from our Teachers, Don't ever fall in love with your cards, look at the action in front of you.

Love at First Sight will only get you in trouble. Learned my lessons a lot of time and still trying to learn from this.
 
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Wed Dec 28, 2011, 08:22 PM
(#16)
whu1895's Avatar
Since: Apr 2011
Posts: 110
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
too early in the tournament

a raise and a re-raise

AKs

I will definitely get out of trouble and look for better spot no need to risk valuable chips that you can use in the future

I will definitely follow Langolier's advice

and I still have Langolier's advice in my poker mind, always win your chips 2 ways and by calling your just putting dead money

in this situation if you call and did not hit the flop which will happen most of the time, you can't continue

if you 4bet then got 5bet you might fold again

you just lose your BB run fast. another thing I learned from our Teachers, Don't ever fall in love with your cards, look at the action in front of you.

Love at First Sight will only get you in trouble. Learned my lessons a lot of time and still trying to learn from this.
its still tricky call n lose fold n scream or gamble dont gamble gl all
 
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AKs vs 'Nitty' 3-bet - Tue Jan 03, 2012, 02:20 PM
(#17)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Title says it all. The SB runs 10/9/6 over 360 hands. I consider him a good player for the $1.50 games.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 1.5 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t1590)
MP1 (t1510)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1450)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1410)
Multitabling Rock (SB) (t1635)
Panicky (BB) (t1590)
UTG (t1375)

Panicky's M: 53.00

Preflop: Panicky is BB with A, K
6 folds, Button bets t40, Multitabling Rock raises to t100, Panicky ???
Situation: AKs (needing to put 80 chips to call) IP to 3-bettor, OP to Open/Raiser (still to act), with 160 chips ‘dead money’ in the pot.

My concern is more with the unknown BTN. We have no reads on the BTN, with only an orbit (at most) into the game. In general at this level, I would think that the BTN would open/raise with a wide range of hands. His 2X PFR may be his norm, we don’t know. He probably has no read on the SB, and in fact he may not even have reads in his repertoire. If we ‘call’ and the BTN raises, I would lean towards folding.

What do we know right now? We have a ‘nit’ that 3bet. There is an unknown BTN PFR (probably with a wide opening range), still to act. We are getting 2:1 for our money. We need to invest 5% of our stack. *Without dragging the charts out* - We have roughly a 33% chance of hitting (at least) top pair on the flop; the chances are less if the villains hold any A(s) or K(s). We have a *13% chance of flopping at least a ‘nut flush’ draw. Combinatorically, if we hit the flop, the villain has less chance of holding a better hand.

I don’t like the 4-bet option, because I don’t want to get 5-bet off our hand. I don’t like the fold option, because we are getting a good price for our investment, and it doesn’t relatively hurt our chances in this tourney, or commit us to the hand. I like the ‘call’ option!; It puts us IP to the 3-bettor. Unfortunately we don’t have C-bet info in the post, but I assume by the VPIP/PFR ratio that villain is C-betting the majority of the time. Calling also allows us to try for TOP/TOP with a 5:1 SPR (assuming the BTN comes along for the odds).

Happy New Year!
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 02:44 PM
(#18)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Happy new year!

Just in case it changes anything for you, if I did 4bet this, it would definitely be a 4bet-shove. So being 5bet off wouldn't be an issue.
 

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