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Home Game Bubble Play - QQ calling a shove

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Home Game Bubble Play - QQ calling a shove - Thu Dec 29, 2011, 09:24 PM
(#1)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Home Game Bubble Play

Now I'm thinking about this, I probably hadn't taken all the circumstances into consideration.

Chris (19honu62) shoves UTG when we are on the bubble. I suggest he will do this with a reasonable range of decent holdings (top 10-15%?) four handed, - he is a bit aggro - and my QQ is good against most of that.

2 players behind I have only ever played in this game - no real reads but I am just not worried about bigger hands behind.

But as it is the bubble and I need to cash in 1st-3rd for not only $ today but points for the leaderboard, I could possibly consider a fold.

I insta-called on instinct, and I think it is correct as a tournament win for $ is more valuable than a top ten league place ($1.10 ticket) and I think I am almost always ahead in the hand, but it is hard to make these calculations in live play when there are extraneous considerations to the immediate tourney.



So I got trashed by the Cowboy, bubbled in the tourney and fell out of the top ten in the Corral monthly standings.

I'm not sure I need the hand analysed, I'm just interested in discussing how people would adjust for the circumstances, on the bubble, but also with 'league points' available when you are in a 'bubble' situation in the league standings as well.

Is there any formula to adjust the value of an in tournament decision with a larger goal?

Ed from Edinburgh - EdinFreeMan
 
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Thu Dec 29, 2011, 10:38 PM
(#2)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
ICM trainer,

CO shove range: 25.5%, 22+, A2s+, A8o+, A5o, K7s+, KJo+, Q8s+, QTo+, J8s+, JTo, T8s+, 98S

BU calling range: 1.8%, JJ+

purely for reference

Last edited by Keldraco; Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 10:51 PM..
 
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Thu Dec 29, 2011, 10:50 PM
(#3)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
One thing our fine feathered friend is forgetting to tell you is that in my home game i am always a bounty and so he is never folding here! LOL GG

 
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Thu Dec 29, 2011, 11:04 PM
(#4)
EdinFreeMan's Avatar
Since: Feb 2010
Posts: 4,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
One thing our fine feathered friend is forgetting to tell you is that in my home game i am always a bounty and so he is never folding here! LOL GG

I did forgot about that bounty - even though I mentioned it several times in chat - I was originally trying to fade Brizer in the game due to the Corral standings (we were 10th&11th going into the game) then I realised I was at risk of dropping out of top ten to either of the other two in the final stages of the game, who could both possibly overtake me, whereas Chris was already above me.

But in no circumstances was I folding to Chris' shove here - wouldn't let him off that light - he keeps winning his home games as it is- (its rigged I tell ya)

Good game Cowboy - enjoyed it despite the outcome - back for more next month.

(I'm still awake because I am running 15th in the 2-7 freeroll I was playing as a side game. - Still love the astronomers - I learn more from then now I have some slight clue what I am doing.)

[busted 39th]

Ed from Edinburgh - EdiinFreeMan

Last edited by EdinFreeMan; Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 11:06 PM.. Reason: busted
 
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Thu Dec 29, 2011, 11:06 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
You have under 20BB.

Even if you think he is on a 10% shove range, you have about 57% equity holding QQ against the top HALF of his range. That means at least 50% of the time you will be better than 50/50 to double up.

so obviously your hand is big enough to call on if you believe the open shover is as wide as 10%. The question then becomes: how can you decide if he MIGHT be as wide as that to open shove?

The adjustments I'd be looking to make in a bubble situation that is short handed on this depth of money (pretty shallow) are pretty simple: Raise light/call tight.

A lot will depend upon the viability of a more standard pre flop raise sizing for the table (2.2 to 2.5BB), and the frequency of 3bet shoves over those sorts of raises by opponents. The more frequently a standard raise is getting attacked, the more likely you are to see middle strength hands moving all in pre flop for 15 to 20BB stacks, and the wider you might think the open shoving Villain here could be...

In the event 3bet shoves are common, the top 3 stacks must rely on all in pre flop moves more frequently in order to avoid being bet off their standard raises. Since they are all relatively equal, and thus feel the same sort of blind pressures, the 3 stacks probably can wait on top tier type hands: AQ+, TT+ if the table has been 3bet shoving a lot. Still, even that sort of "careful" shove range leaves you perfectly fine in assuming around the 10% range you did...

Straight ICM thinking can work if all the remaining participants are equal in skill, and even under those thoughts QQ is a stand.

This means the adjustments I'd make would be to use standard raise sizing if that works, and selecting both medium and strong hands to do those raises if they are appropriate. If standard raises are not working very well, and if they are being attacked, so long as I remained on a stack which is on par with the top 3 stacks, I would make an all in pre flop move my standard, but only do it on a very tight, likely top 10 or so range.

...and of course, I would not CALL a raise, ANY RAISE, on this depth of money without having an extremely good chance of holding the best hand. There is just too much chance that I will be faced with a call for my entire stack on the flop, or a fold of 10%+ of my stack.

These thoughts would hold true for this stack distribution whether I am looking at league points or not.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Dec 29, 2011 at 11:22 PM..
 
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Thu Dec 29, 2011, 11:28 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Ed, in this situation, I like the call. People will be shoving light many times at this stage of a tourney and you have a premium hand. Unfortunately, cowboy hit his outs.


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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 01:36 AM
(#7)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,501
(Head Trainer)
I'm never even dreaming of folding QQ here. And you can take AA out of honus range since he's not shoving it this deep, which makes it even more of an insta-high-five-the-monitor snap call.


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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:43 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
And doubt seriously w/ KK either. Would have took me at least a billionth of a second to call that and what's with the overkill river? Common chris, you didn't need to rig it that bad... Jeez
 

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