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Chipleader on the bubble of a 6-max express SnG

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Chipleader on the bubble of a 6-max express SnG - Fri Dec 30, 2011, 03:44 AM
(#1)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Okay, so I'm chip leader on the bubble of a 6-max express SnG. This SnG starts with 300 chip (15 BB) stacks, with 5 minute blind levels. 1st pays 70%, 2nd pays 30%.

I'm easily dominating the table when this hand comes up.

Seat 8: oriholic (1275.00 in chips) - Big Blind
Seat 7: fog77 (115.00 in chips) - Small Blind
Seat 4: Sharon11 (410.00 in chips) - The button
fog77: posts small blind 30.00
oriholic: posts big blind 60.00
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to oriholic
Sharon11: folds
fog77: raises 85.00 to 115.00 and is all in
oriholic: ????

Short stack jams and I need to call 55 to win 185. I'm getting better than 3 to 1 and a call clearly won't hurt my stack at all.

So do I call or fold and why?

What if I change my hand to ? Or ?


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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 04:02 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
This is a game with a standard payout structure, and you have a stack that won't be affected terribly by a loss to the short stack. Both are arguements for a call, so this will always be an ATC call, getting the odds that you are.

If, however, 1st and 2nd got the same prize, then the bubble would be more important (not important enough to fold anything here though). If this were the bubble of a satty and calling and losing would cripple you, then there would be a strong arguement not to call with ATC and I'm not sure what the correct play there would be.

The structure of the blinds never affects the way you should call/fold. That's always a function of stacks, cards, and the payout structure, but never the blind structure.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 04:13 AM
(#3)
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The blind structure stuff was more to give background on how the tourney plays and why the stacks are so small. It's like a hyperturbo but with fairly long levels.


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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 04:30 AM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Yeah, I wasn't trying to say that your info was bad, just mentioning the blind structure thing as a general educational point for anyone else who might read this. A lot of people do think that they need to 'loosen up' at the beginning of a 100bb turbo compared to the beginning of a 100bb non-turbo when they're exactly the same, just faster in progression.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 04:34 AM
(#5)
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Posts: 3,145
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- You must risk 55 for a chance to win 175, or a price of about 3.2 to 1 to call.
- Busting this short stack all in gets you ITM.
- The call is under 5% of our stack, so it is not going to significantly change your chance to win this event to lose.
- If you fold you are giving an un-contested chip up of about 50% to the short stack.

Altogether, these things equate to an insta-call on any 2 cards.
Let's look closer though...


23o is a call.
Combinatronically, the most likely situation you will find yourself in is a where you hold 2 live under cards to 2 un-paired overs. In that spot you need only 2 to 1 to be getting a good price to call.

Worst case for you is this guy has a pp 33+, but since there are some many more ways to start on un-paired cards than on pp, AND since it is such a small loss to you, fading the chance to run into a dominating pp in order to avoid giving such a large un-contested chip up is fine.

If doubling the short stack results in him getting back into the game on a somewhat play-able stack, then you;d probably not be as ready to risk a double up, but in this spot I insta-call on even 23o.

AA is an obvious call, you are ahead of everything...

K8s is an obvious call as well, since even if you are dominated by a bigger K or bigger 8, you still have roughly a 28% chance to suck out; you only "need" 24% chance to suck out to break even. You also will have near than same 28% chance (at least) against ANY pp except KK or AA.
So this too is an insta call.

There could be reason for keeping the shortie around if you are simply brutalizing the middle stack.
I still do not necessarily think that with 5 minute blind increases and the stack sizes being what they are, that there is much point to doing that.

If you had 1500 and the 2nd stack was meat for you, and they had 1000, yeah...keep the shortie around and chip up.

But with chips as they are, bust the shortie, get it HU with a 3 to 1 advantage, and win the thing now.


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Last edited by JDean; Fri Dec 30, 2011 at 04:38 AM..
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 04:43 AM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Bubble abuse in a hyper-turbo? Interesting.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 11:13 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
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I'm calling that with ATC. If you lose, you still have far an away the largest stack and if you win, you're now ITM and HU.
I'm calling with 27o here.. any 2 cards will do.


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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:29 PM
(#8)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Eeyup! easy call ATC. And K8s isn't ATC No difference to you if losing (you're still dominating) and winning puts you ITM and in even better shape to ship it .... and what's with the AA question? Lol
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:38 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
.... and what's with the AA question? Lol
It's a bubble situation. This is a fold aces spot, obv.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 05:22 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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The problem with binking around, trying to get "cute" to deplete the medium stack even more simply so you can set up a better HU situation, is that you also have the chance of messing up and DOUBLING the medium stack.

You also run the risk that the medium stack will catch on to what you are doing, and seek to take the short stack out themselves.

I simply do not see the reason in not trying to get it HU NOW, while you are assured of starting HU play with a 3 to 1 chip advantage. I find this especially true since getting HU also puts you ITM, and locks up a cash.

If the mid stack had 1000, and you were looking at only a 250 to 500 chip advantage if it got HU now, I could see trying to keep the shortie around, but this situation is well past that.

Besides...

There is no "lock" that you will take out the shortie with a K8c call anyway...


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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 02:46 PM
(#11)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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I called. With 3 to 1 calling here is profitable with any two cards, no question there.

The question is could folding actually be more profitable? With player 2 at 400 and player 3 at 200, player 2 should be quite risk-averse, as he should expect player 3 to bust any minute. Because of this I can shove any two quite profitably, expecting to only get called by the very top of player 2's range. Probably something like TT+, AQ+. By folding I would allow the bubble to continue, which should be great for me.

The problem with that is that winning this shove uncontested would nearly double up the short stack and it would make both player 2 and 3 have near-equal stacks. I would lose my power over player 2, as he will be more willing to gamble on his tiny stack.

If the stacks were such that even after winning this pot player 3 had a much tinier stack than player 2 and I could still exert my dominance over him I'd be more inclined to just fold 100%. Still, taking a 3 to 1 chip-lead into heads-up is too nice an advantage to risk for a little more bubble abuse. So yes it is a call. In this case I'm actually ahead of the SB shove range and even if I lose it doesn't change my chip position at all. 23o is a call as well.

If I am trying to prolong the bubble though (if say there were 4 remaining and top 3 got paid or the stack sizes were more appropriate), I fold AA. I actually considered that 23o could be a call while AA would be a fold since 23o would have a greater chance of keeping the bubble alive, and not cost me much. Say 1 BB to be able to steal 1.5 BBs 90% of the time. But a zero percent chance of knocking out the shortstack is clearly better than a 30% chance. So it would be a fold too.

For what it's worth I did win this SnG. (And a whole bunch more--these guys really can't play, haha)


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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 03:19 PM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
So the idea behind this thread is leveraging folds out of a medium stack with a big stack due to the presence of a shorter stack on the table? Cool topic.

If these guys can't play though, I'd say chances are they're not really susceptible to this kind of pressure and are probably just cracking under the pressure of being in a hyper-turbo (with somebody who can play). So, you can't really ignore the fish factor here (ZOMG why!!! would he call with that when the other guy's so short?!?!?!?!), but this is a topic that any SNG player should learn at some point. Cool thread.
 

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