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Should I have folded 99 here?

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Should I have folded 99 here? - Fri Dec 30, 2011, 09:11 AM
(#1)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Hi Guys,

I was wondering if you think I should have folded here? It was early in a 25c ($100 added tournament). I've been trying to play tight early in tournaments and had just won a few hundred chips. The opp was pretty loose 50/20 (only on a small number of hands).

How would you range this push? My attempt would be that:
A premium pair was possible but unlikely as he would look for more action given the stack sizes, leaving JJ, TT as the hands I'm behind. Ax is a coin flip and weaker hands and bluffs are a possiblity as the all in seems to suggest he wants me to go away. So I would be leaning towards calling. Pot odds also seem to be reasonable for a call.

My decision to fold was based on the tournament as a whole and not wanting to risk half my stack early, should I be doing this or should I play the hand on it's merits?

Thanks


 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 11:03 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I'd fold it, too. Without reads, you can't really presume to know if he's shoving narrow or if he's a maniac. If he recently lost a big pot, calling would be a closer decision, but I like the fold. Even if he's getting it in with a trash hand like QTo, a lot of the time you'll be calling off for a flip.

As a side note, I prefer overlimping here, because there's really no way you can go to a flop with a small pot. A lot of the time, c-betting will be for another quarter of your stack, and there's little room to improve if you miss. I think you'll be folding this hand postflop the majority of the time, and with a lot of your stack in the pot. If someone raises behind you (like this guy; he might have made it smaller had you limped), you might still be able to setmine if you just limp to begin with.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 11:42 AM
(#3)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Ya probably close. Depends on what i'd seen him do recently and his 3bet numbers which are missing. I dont know what " a small number of hands" is but 50% is loosy as heck. But I agree with panicky, its probably too early to put 1/2 your stack on the line on a (what I feel) is a flip (and thats more than likely best case scenerio) so I like the fold.. Not worth it at this point, unless you like courting the idea of switching places with this guy (chipwise) on a pair of 9s
I also probably would have limped behind given your position.
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:08 PM
(#4)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
***Moved***

Better chance of getting it analysed here Dasher.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:25 PM
(#5)
XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
BronzeStar
before you acted there was
15+30+30+30 or hmmmmm 30 .. 60 .. 90 plus 15 for 105 chips
you have 99 you take 105 +105 = 210 plus 30+30 for each extra player = 210+30 = 240 +30 = 270
so your bet should have been 270 or even 300
once you bet 300 you should be aware of any short stacks to act after you
you can tell at a glance one player has about 900 chips
so should you bet 300 or go ahead and bet 1200 or even 1800 or 900
1800 would generate side pot above the 900
300 would pot commit you to the bet
300+900 might make it great pot odds for others to enter
.
.
my main concern would have been will 900 player come over top
do I want him to ?
regardless im betting 300 or more

15+30+30+30 = 105 chips out there
you must bet 105+105 +30+30 or a total of 270
if you dont have courage to do that then your hand is too weak
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 12:32 PM
(#6)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,787
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Without much info on the opp, I think it's a good fold overall.
Here's what I'd have done if it were me in the hand (I've played this tourney probably more than any other MTT on PS over the years, so know how it plays out and have a +33% ROI in it... without any final table big cashes in it, which is what will really raise your ROI. +ROI with no big cashes is not easy to have).

preflop: you've got 2 limpers before you, so you can really either limp or raise here, since it's early and you've got a middle pair. If I were to raise, I'd make a std raise of 3BB+1BB for each limper, or here, making it 150. When the opp shoves, I'm folding and here's why. Yes, they could have Ax or really any two overcards, but they also could have you dominated with a higher pair. This early in a tourney, it's not worth the risk with a mid pair. If you had a larger pair, then I'm calling it... or... if I had notes on the player saying that they will shove ATC, then I'd call it.
Without the info on the opp, this early in the tourney you definitely have a very playable stack if you fold and don't really think you need to take this big of a risk at this point in the tourney. You'll normally have better places to get your chips into, when you know you have the best hand.


Super-Moderator



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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 02:36 PM
(#7)
XXChris123's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,512
BronzeStar
hmm maybe I calculated wrong
after seeing what JW wrote
 
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Fri Dec 30, 2011, 07:48 PM
(#8)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Thanks guys.

Limping behind preflop is an interesting point, set mining vs punishing limpers, even looking at different PSO videos you get very different views. I would have limped small pocket pairs but with a big stack I tend to lean towards raising limpers with middle pairs +.
 

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