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Is it a good gamble???

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Did I make a good decision here? - Sat Dec 31, 2011, 06:47 PM
(#1)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Sorry replayer not working.

It's Big 11 MTT.




with 15BB i know it has a good fold equity but already tired and late so i raise light with no intension of folding after several rounds of giving away my BB due bad cards.

Next money bubbles is still very far so i decide to gamble here.

Any advice how i should play this hand or any Ax suited with 15BB with intension of playing going deeper with little risk.

thanks and happy new year

Last edited by PINOY_HITMAN; Mon Jan 02, 2012 at 02:35 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 07:43 PM
(#2)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,286
I'm folding this to an all in, I don't consider a weak suited ace to be sufficient to call an all in. You're too often an underdog to a made hand or a better Ace.

You have a decent stack, you could find a better spot.

 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 08:05 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
BVB, I'm playing it like you did, raise/calling. A7s is weak, but heads-up on only 15bb it's a borderline monster. If the BB was a nit though, it'd be a good fold.
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:23 PM
(#4)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Considering given info, in my opinion the raise isn't a bad idea, but the all-in call is. You haven't committed your stack and you are basically way behind villain's entire range. The only hands you aren't way behind are small pocket pairs, but I don't think that will generally even be part of villain's range when reraising all-in. Your A acts as a blocker that should boost your fold equity slightly, but your hand doesn't really hold up well post-flop. You took a gamble with the A7 and it didn't work out, just let it go to an all-in reraise that has your stack covered.

Last edited by RockerguyAA; Sat Dec 31, 2011 at 09:25 PM..
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:44 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
you are basically way behind villain's entire range.
This is highly villain dependant and very rarely true imo. I can see Ax rejamming (396 hands, we're ~45% vs. that range), two broadways rejamming (96 hands I think, we significantly beat that), any pocket pair (72 hands ~40% vs. that), and occasional bluffs. With antes and over 10% of his remaining stack in the pot, there's a pretty big overlay which gives the Hero 1.5-to-1 pot odds. He only needs 40% equity here, and I think he'll often be ahead of the villain's range.

BVB, why are we bet/folding A7s?
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:24 PM
(#6)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
I'm folding this to an all in, I don't consider a weak suited ace to be sufficient to call an all in. You're too often an underdog to a made hand or a better Ace.

You have a decent stack, you could find a better spot.


Advice noted.

My standard to call a bigger stack than mine is JJ+ but since it's late and several time i fell asleep in front of my laptop i gamble.
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:26 PM
(#7)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
BVB, I'm playing it like you did, raise/calling. A7s is weak, but heads-up on only 15bb it's a borderline monster. If the BB was a nit though, it'd be a good fold.
thanks Panicky
 
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Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:30 PM
(#8)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
Considering given info, in my opinion the raise isn't a bad idea, but the all-in call is. You haven't committed your stack and you are basically way behind villain's entire range. The only hands you aren't way behind are small pocket pairs, but I don't think that will generally even be part of villain's range when reraising all-in. Your A acts as a blocker that should boost your fold equity slightly, but your hand doesn't really hold up well post-flop. You took a gamble with the A7 and it didn't work out, just let it go to an all-in reraise that has your stack covered.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.430% 64.20% 00.24% 109042673 400956.50 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 35.570% 35.33% 00.24% 60018642 400956.50 { A2s+, A2o+ }

lesson learn here

thanks Rockerguy
 
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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 12:29 AM
(#9)
TrumpinJoe's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 4,557
Quote:
Is this a good gamble???
I don't really like your question here. "Gamble" implies being behind and hoping to get luky and draw out.

A better question would be "Is this move/play + EV? "

The BEST question is "Did I make a good decision here? "

Winning players make good (read +EV) decisions. In my opinion getting it in when ahead isn't gambling in the typical sense of the word.
 
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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 12:44 AM
(#10)
PINOY_HITMAN's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrumpinJoe View Post
I don't really like your question here. "Gamble" implies being behind and hoping to get luky and draw out.

A better question would be "Is this move/play + EV? "

The BEST question is "Did I make a good decision here? "

Winning players make good (read +EV) decisions. In my opinion getting it in when ahead isn't gambling in the typical sense of the word.
Points well taken Sir Joe.

thanks and Happy New Year.
 
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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 01:00 AM
(#11)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by PINOY_HITMAN View Post
it's late and several time i fell asleep in front of my laptop i gamble.
Yeah, I do the same thing. I need to stop playing at night.

I like the name Sir Joe. He's a very proper cat.
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 12:21 AM
(#12)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
This is highly villain dependant and very rarely true imo. I can see Ax rejamming (396 hands, we're ~45% vs. that range), two broadways rejamming (96 hands I think, we significantly beat that), any pocket pair (72 hands ~40% vs. that), and occasional bluffs. With antes and over 10% of his remaining stack in the pot, there's a pretty big overlay which gives the Hero 1.5-to-1 pot odds. He only needs 40% equity here, and I think he'll often be ahead of the villain's range.

BVB, why are we bet/folding A7s?
I think the range your stating is more along the lines of a villain all-in opening bet range(like if villain was SB and hero was BB). In this example villain is reraising all-in against someone who is likely to call(short stack). In my opinion villain's range won't be as wide in this example. I wouldn't expect to run into A2-A6s, KT-KQ, or a small pocket pair very often if I was hero. Yes the small blind vs big blind battle situation would infer a wider reraising range from the villain, but I think the stack sizes are a more important factor. While hero is not pot committed preflop, I think most villains would assume any reraise is unlikely to result in a fold by hero.

Joe makes a good point about considering +/- EV. I still think this was a -EV all-in call and therefore was a gamble by a tired poker player. My opinion anyways
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 12:31 AM
(#13)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 12:39 AM
(#14)
JWK24's Avatar
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Posts: 24,832
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youve got 15BB and a suited ace. I like your initial std opening raise, but when the opp shoves on you, I'm mucking it and here's why.

First, it takes a much better hand to call an all-in, than it does to initially shove. When the opp shoves here, their range is a pocket pair and a big ace (probably suited). Your ace with a mediocre kicker is behind their whole range. If their pocket pair is 77 or over, you've only got the 3 aces as outs. If they have a small pair, you have 6 outs (the three aces and three 7's). If they have Ax with a higher kicker, you only have the three 7's as outs. Due to having 6 outs at best, that's not worth putting your tourney life on the line with.
You're much better off mucking here and finding a better situation to shove the rest of your chips with.


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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 04:44 PM
(#15)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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A7s is a very strong hand! Raise/folding a top 12% hand on 15 BBs blind vs. blind sounds like a terrible leak. In a spot like this I think you want to put all your chips in the middle. Depends on your read on the BB how to go about it though. Against an aggro BB who is likely to try to resteal, raise/calling is a nice play. Against a more passive player who's more likely to just call and only raise better, I like a shove. It's definitely +EV, unexploitable shove. Also, limp/shove is an option against an aggressive player too. But you do run the risk of them checking back and you having to play the hand out of position.


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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 08:46 PM
(#16)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
if you just raise and then get 3bet shove it's a fold

if your going all in post flop as you said you just need to go all in PRE

don't raise with the intent of calling a 3bet because you will be behind most of the time,

raising and calling is not good because you can't win pot 2 ways

best play is go all in right away at least he can't bluff you and he might fold so 2 chance of winning the pot.
 

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