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Bad play or just bad luck?

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Bad play or just bad luck? - Sun Jan 01, 2012, 12:10 PM
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Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hand #37 in a $1.50 27 player game. Blinds are at 25/50 (level 3), 6 players left.

Here's what happens:



After the hand I couldn't help but put a 'sheesh' in the chatbox which started up some chatter about the hand. One person question my move with A8. I'm not sure it was the best move in that spot, might even have been a bad move to begin with. In which case I answered my own dilemma: bad play.

Here's my thinking:
UTG opens for 4x, I find A8. Not a calling hand, so it's fold or raise. And if I raise, that'll be at least a 3rd of my stack. meaning I'm never folding postflop barring some absolutely horrible flop, so why not shove. That has the advantage that he has to make a choice now, not on the flop when he may flop something he can call with. So
* he folds - I win, next hand.
* he calls, shows A-rag, domination.
* he calls, small pair, it's a race
* he calls, K high or something

In my thought train, options 1 and 3 are most likely, with option 2 being possible but unlikely. Option 4, I doubt it. So that's a win, a race or a domination possibility, which makes me think that pushing is a whole lot better than calling in this spot. Of course, just my luck he backs into runner-runner straight.

During the chatter, he commented that if I had called preflop and raised the flop he woulda folded. Now of course you can't be 100% sure that's true, but I was trying to understand his calling and we never got there. Also, why would you be willing to call allin if you know you would fold to a flop bet? The flop's only going to have overcards there... He can't be setmining either, we don't have the stack, and calling allin on the hope of hitting your set? From my point of view, I see this if I were in his shoes

I make a UTG raise for 4x, a fold, and a shove allin for another 24 BB. I have pocket 3. So either the guy has a pair (in which case I'm drawing to 2 outs). the guy has a biggish ace (then it's a race), or the guy has something else (in which case it's still a raise). There's only 1 hand I have dominated (2-2), and every other hand he could have has me racing at best. Personally I would have mucked the treys there, not gonna call off 20 BBs with a race being the best case scenario.

So what's the verdict - overplaying a suited ace on my part, or just a bad call on Villain's part combined with bad luck?

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Sun Jan 01, 2012 at 12:17 PM.. Reason: screwy replayer link fixed
 
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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 06:23 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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the first thing you need to consider here is that there are 6 left and the top 5 cash and you have 2 stacks beneath you, so you need to be protecting your position and cash first, then going for the win. You can't win if you don't first cash.

preflop: UTG makes a raise to 4BB (larger than a standard raise). This larger raise from UTG will almost always be a pocket pair and normally a larger pocket pair. With A8s and this type of raise, I'm mucking the hand here and finding a better situation to get my chips into.
With the normal holdings for an opp with a larger raise from UTG, the only outs you may have are the flush, which you have to draw three cards to, or maybe the A (and if the opp has an A, they will have you outkicked).

I think it's too much to raise to 28+BB's on a weak suited A, especially since you don't have any chips invested into the pot. Doing this will get you value owned almost all of the time. Weaker hands will fold and you'll only get called by hands that you're behind and if you lose, you cripple your chip stack and won't cash in the tourney.
You're better off waiting for a better hand in a better situation and protecting your chip position, getting into the $$, then taking a chance to move up the pay scale.


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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 11:11 PM
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Since: Jun 2010
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*** moved to tournament hand analysis section since member wants the hand analyzed JWK24***


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