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Should I fold AQ here?

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Should I fold AQ here? - Sun Jan 01, 2012, 10:44 PM
(#1)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Hi Guys,

Is this just a cooler or should I be looking to fold to the all in here and wait for another spot to get my chips in? AQ tends to get me trouble quite a bit but once the ace hit I figured I needed to go with my hand. The guy was playing 54/9.

Thanks

 
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Sun Jan 01, 2012, 11:16 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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No. You are stuck to this pot on the flop.

Pre flop you elect to make a pretty small raise, making it 900 to go over 1 limper.
A more standard amount would be to raise making it a standard amount, plus 1BB for a limper.
This means your raise is probably about 300 or so too small. Consider...

You started with 23BB in your stack, so if you've moved to a smaller standard open raise of around 2.2 to 2.5BB to go, the amount you raised over the limper is not a major concern for you, nor a real "mistake". As such it is not something you should really be looking to change up in your game, and I only note it because it MIGHT tend to put you to a trickier decision on some stack sizes if/when a villain raises over you on a 1 pair hit (such as here).

Just do not take the simplification of your post flop decisions TOO far...

The simplest decision post flop you could have had was to move all in with your stack. The problem for you doing that here is that 23BB might be too much to really like doing that over a single limper (unless you have a read that his CALL range for an all in by you is quite wide). You'd largely 'value own" yourself by tending to get worse hands to fold and better hands to call if you moved in on this size stack.

So all in all, as long as you are aware of the ramifications of your slightly smaller than standard raise size, it is just fine...

The truth is that you are in a tricky stack spot if you hit your hand:

1) ANY spike that you make a C-Bet on will probably put you past a commitment point.
2) ANY raise over a spike by you is going to mean you will likely be forced to live or die on your hand strength based upon your preceeding actions.

Now...

You hit what you needed to hit on the flop to put more in.
You made your C-Bet and put yourself at a 34% investment point.
I do not want to put anything at all over 30% to 33% into the pot if I have ANY intention of folding.

Your C-Bet of 1500 into the 3300 pot was under the standard 1/2 pot C-Bet sizing, yet it still brought you slightly past a commitment point. This is important to note because that means you had no real "room" to C-Bet any less than you did. Consider...

When you hold a value hand such as here (the hand you'd "expect" to make most often when you hit the flop), the SMALLER a C-Bet sizing is, the greater the chance is that you will be "attacked" by an opponent because you appear weak.

While a 54/9 stat line on a player shows that his ability to bluff is quite low, a smaller c-bet than you than you made might open the villain;s perceived VALUE RANGE wide enough to all but force you to re-shove over a raise by him anyway...see? Example:

Let's say you worry about commitment, and c-bet only 1000.
That is an amount you COULD fold if he jammed you, because you;d only be about 27% invested; you;d HATE to fold but you COULD fold...barely.

BUT...

At right around 1/3rd pot, a bet that small might see him thinking ANY A was a good enough hand to value raise you. His type wold be more prone to min raise on thin value, not jam, but the point would be pretty moot:

You'd either be FORCED to muck a big chunk of your stack after hitting the type of hand you were playing for when you entered on AQ, or you'd re-shove over him anyway.

That is a far touchier situation even than the touchy you you were actually in...

Checking is pretty "meh" here too, as that might allow him to improve his hand to beat you (if you were ahead on the flop), OR it may result in a scare card peeling that prevents him from calling an amount he MIGHT call on the flop.

So Bottom line:

A) There isn't much different you could do pre flop from raise quite close to what you did (within 300 or so chips, quite a minor difference really), except maybe flat to play fit or fold; that is a bit too passive with good position and a hand as strong as AQs. An all in on 15BB would be fine, but on 23BB that is a bit value owning.

B) When you hit the hand you are playing for, there is almost no sense in CHECKING. You got what you were playing for, so you want to try to get paid; a C-Bet of somewhere around half pot (your's was only slightly under that) is probably going to work the best for you in the widest range of circumstances to get you paid.

C) You cannot really bet anything LESS than you did, as doing so would mean you leave a thin value raise range too wide for you to fold top pair 2nd kicker versus this player type anyway.

D) Even though you have a good chance of you being beat by this player's observed tendencies (wide entry range, very few raises) when he jams, it would likely be a BIGGER mistake to commit 33%+ of your stack then fold off ANY chance of winning, than it is to make the call and HOPE he is on AT or less...

So nothing you could do here at all, call and pray to hit a Q when you see top 2 in his hand.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Sun Jan 01, 2012 at 11:59 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 12:17 AM
(#3)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Makes sense. Thanks JDean
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 12:49 AM
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JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Question for you:

If you held 30BB, do you think this might change anything for you?

What about 50BB?

Assume in both those circumstances you bet the SAME AMOUNTS, and the villain had a stack larger than your stack in the same proportions, and he JAMMED over your c-bet...

How do you think you might have looked at the situation then?


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 01:52 AM
(#5)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Honestly, I would still find it a difficult situation. At the micro level guys can turn up with all kinds of hands in this postion, it can be hard to thow away this hand on the flop. With 30BB and this deep in the tournament I think I'm still probably calling. With 50BB I'd like to think I could fold.

I think one mistake I sometimes make is that I assume an overbet shove like the dude made is a sign of weakness, a big stack bullying and using fold equity with a nervous made hand. Personally in his position I might have called my C Bet and tried to get me committed on the next street, unless maybe he was concerned I had KQ and was worried about the staight draw.
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 05:52 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DasherF78 View Post
Honestly, I would still find it a difficult situation. At the micro level guys can turn up with all kinds of hands in this postion, it can be hard to thow away this hand on the flop. With 30BB and this deep in the tournament I think I'm still probably calling. With 50BB I'd like to think I could fold.

I think one mistake I sometimes make is that I assume an overbet shove like the dude made is a sign of weakness, a big stack bullying and using fold equity with a nervous made hand. Personally in his position I might have called my C Bet and tried to get me committed on the next street, unless maybe he was concerned I had KQ and was worried about the staight draw.
I'd say on 50BB, this is an insta-fold.

It is simply too likely that the villain with his play characteristics (loose and pretty passive pre flop, pretty passive overall) would not be able to beat top pair 2nd kicker. If you had 50BB and he had 100BB (roughly), the risk of him shoving LESS would be so high for him that it would be pretty dumb to do. A highly aggro villain might do that, but not this guy...

So on 50BB it is an insta muck, and you move on with 40BB+.

23BB we already covred: you are simply too deeply invested to risk a msitake fold.

30BB...

Coin flip.

8BB invested already (after you c-Bet the flop) has you in pretty deep; maybe TOO deep to like folding.

The real change on 30BB is that I'd think you would definately need to bet more than you did on the flop UNLESS you intended to leave room to fold. Consider...

Your sub half pot bet is only "good" for you if you really are trying to keep yourself from getting stuck to the pot. If you are not worried about having 2nd best, or if you are not worried about someone bluffing you with a WORSE hand, your sizing is great if you had 30BB: it leaves you a tiny amount of room to fold, but does NOT look weak at all. This means if you had not intention of folding, you may as well bet a bit ABOVE half pot, in order to get slightl more value form a lesser hand that calls...see?

Your 1500 bet into a 3300 pot was TOO TRICKY a spot to put yourself in off a 30BB stack if you were not planning to fold to anything the villian behind you did though. Why would you want to cost yourself value by keeping yourself below a committment threshold if you intend to call the villain's jam off a 30BB start stack here anyway Dasher?

If I had 30BB here I'd MUCH prefer to either C-Bet around 1750 to 2000 to extract value from weaker hands that call, but also to make sure I cannot fold if I am worried at all about being bluffed.

BUT...

I think in my mind, if I had 30BB here and was facing a jam by a villain of THIS type, I like your C-Bet sizing BECAUSE it let's me fold.

Face it, someone with a play pattern like this is almost never bluffing when they jam; this guy is just too passive. I mean do you honestly think a passive player would jam on an AT here (please note, that is the biggest 1 pair hand you can beat)?

I asked this Q about 30BB simply because the actual hand here showed 23BB was TOO SHORT to anything other than you did. But the play you made on 23BB would be ideal, including the C-Bet sizing, if you want to leave the tiniest window to fold in case this passive villain wakes up with a jam.

See?


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 09:26 PM
(#7)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Thanks JDean.

I see your point now about the guy being passive, eventhough he's in a lot of pots, that should have been a red flag.

One question I have about the 1/3 commitment point. What do you do in a situation where you are getting odds to draw but this will tip you into the commitment point. Should you not call the draw or be prepared to fold regardless of the 1/3 rule if you miss?
 
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fold or not aq - Tue Jan 03, 2012, 12:38 AM
(#8)
declanmulhal's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 5
BronzeStar
i believe giving the hand full attention the villan could never bluff this flop and his call smacked of aq aj possible middle pair and youronly beating a 10 -,,,,something tells me you reallywanted too fold knowing the history of the table?
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 05:25 AM
(#9)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Yeah Declan I think after the fact I can see the reasons why I shouldn't call. It's great to discuss after the game, I like learning about the game and as someone new to poker it's good to get opinions from better players with more experience.

Thanks again guys.
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 01:54 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DasherF78 View Post
Thanks JDean.

I see your point now about the guy being passive, eventhough he's in a lot of pots, that should have been a red flag.

One question I have about the 1/3 commitment point. What do you do in a situation where you are getting odds to draw but this will tip you into the commitment point. Should you not call the draw or be prepared to fold regardless of the 1/3 rule if you miss?
This is a deceptively LARGE question to answer Dasher.

I was working on a mega long reply, touching on all the points that go into your thinking. I may finish that "opus" and post it on this thread anyway, but for now let me answer you this way...

You do not call on draws for the same reasons in MTT play as you do in Cash games.

Cash games are all about finding +eV situations, and even small edge situations are fine to take; if you lose, you simply re-load and come back firing. When you win, the positive expected value of the situation tends to pay you back for all your losses, and nets you a profit for the risk.

MTT play is about balancing chip accumulation with chip preservation. Your actual concerns in MTT play are for TeV (tournament equity value). This is a measure of your eV just like in cash games, plus your CeV (chip equity value) in the tournament itself.

What this all means for your question Dasher is pretty simple...

As your stack FALLS in size, you should adjust your START STANDARDS to try avoiding hands that you cannot commit to before the river.

So ideally, you;d not want to call along in a 4 way with a hand like 89s on the button just because you have "odds" to do so after your stack falls below a level which can sustain a standard call/call without reaching a commitment point.

You CAN still play those sorts of hands, but only if you can leverage some sort of fold equity against all opponents in a hand if you semi bluff bet or raise. If you cannot do that though, your stack is too short to CALL bets on the flop and turn without depleteing your stack and hurting your chances to make it ITM, or to run deep.

If you look at Harrington on Hold 'em, volume 2, he outlines the theory of "M".

In that book, the implication is that as your stack moves out of the "green zone", and into lower zones of size, your play thoughts must change. A large part of that change consists of entering pots more aggressively. So the act of calling is an inherently passive action, and should be avoided on shorter stack sizes, UNLESS the return on the investment you make in the pot is far GREATER than the chance you have to actually hit your draw.

Simply put:

If you are drawing to a 1 in 3 chance, even if you are going to get paid 4 to 1 if you hit, you will MISS 2 times in 3.

In a cash game, pot odds are enough to call on, although versus some opponents aggression might be better. If you lose by letting yourself become card dependant, but the price to try was good enough, you will re-coup your loss simply be re-loading and continuing play.

In an MTT, if you lose those chips BECAUSE you called and were leaving yourself card dependant, you cannot re-load. This means you may not survive in the event long enough to find another situation to re-coup your losses.

Does that answer your question?


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 02:03 PM
(#11)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DasherF78 View Post
Yeah Declan I think after the fact I can see the reasons why I shouldn't call. It's great to discuss after the game, I like learning about the game and as someone new to poker it's good to get opinions from better players with more experience.

Thanks again guys.
As for this statement, the biggest mistake in poker is not calling and losing. That will happen to you quite often, as the BEST you can do is put an opponent on a RANGE of possible hands.

Most times that range will consist of some hands you beat, and some hands that you lose too.

As long as your ranging has enough hands that you are crushing, the fact that some hands that crush you might be present is moot: a call is fine.

the trick of course is to get good enough at your ranging...

What the BIGGEST MISTAKE is in poker, especially tournament poker, is:

Putting a significant portion of our stack into the pot, then FOLDING away any chance to win.

Consider...

You should either stop putting chips in EARLIER, before you have put in a significant amount, or you should not fold if there is ANY CHANCE you hold the best hand.

In light of this, let's look at your decisions in the posted hand again:

1) You hold AQs per flop, and you have a 23BB stack (roughly).

With your stack size AQs is certainly a big enough hand to raise on in late position.
This is ESPECIALLY true at a short handed table.

Your decision here then is fine.

Had the BTN guy, the one you had a 54/9 stat line on, raised all in pre flop, it is highly debateable whether or not AQs is enough of a hand to call off your stack on. You did not need to pass that test though...

2) You spike top pair/second kicker. When the limper (who called your pre flop raise) checked, you led for a very standard size amount.

Again, what did you EXPECT to flop when you raised with AQs?

If you had missed the flop, a c-bet here would probably have been a mistake. You could check/fold the 3BB you raised pre flop, and move forward with 20BB. But you did not miss...

The time to evaluate whether the likeliest hand you are to flop will be good enough to win or not is BEFORE you raise pre flop. Versus the info you had, all signs pointed to the fact that the typical hand you'd flop would be good enough to win for you, so why shouldn't you bet?

All checking would do is cost you value that you might get into the pot, and possibly result in giving a free card which might BEAT YOU...right?

3) ANY standard C-Bet invests about 1/3rd your stack. 1/3rd of your stack in represents a 'typical" level where you have put a significant amount into the pot.

WHY is it significant?

If you had folded, your playability would have been severely effected.

You'd go to a stack of around 15BB, and you'd become 20% invested on ANY pre flop standard raise size of 3BB. So in large part you'd lose ANY ability to open raise then fold to a 3bet. That severely truncates your ability to play hands at a table with a significant calling dynamic.

So while there certainly is a good chance you are beat when this particular opponent jams over you, the fact there is any chance he might be on less than you have here (and there certainly is), is probably enough to put the rest of your chips in on a crying call.

The time to consider whether or not you have enough to keep going for the rest of your stack was BEFORE you made the C-Bet, not after. as we saw, you had plenty enough reason to fire the C-Bet, therefore once you made it and committed yourself, you all bu HAVE to call the jam...even if you think there is a good chance you are beat.

It would be a bigger mistake to fold off 1/3rd your chips, and make SURE there is no way you can win.


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 02:27 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 01:38 AM
(#12)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Thanks JDean these are both really good replies with lots of information to absorb, it might take a while but should be very useful.

The 1/3 commitment I didn't consider playing this hand so it's something I need to think about. That's why I said on 23BB or 30BB it didn't matter I was going with the hand when I hit the Ace on the flop.

I also never really considered the difference between playing draws in Cash and Tournament play, that's interesting. I would have just played a draw with the Rule of 4 and 2 and maybe semi-bluff shoved if I thought I had fold equity (especially if I had a pair as backup).

Lots to learn
 
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Commitment Video - Thu Jan 05, 2012, 08:16 PM
(#13)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by DasherF78 View Post
The 1/3 commitment I didn't consider playing this hand so it's something I need to think about. That's why I said on 23BB or 30BB it didn't matter I was going with the hand when I hit the Ace on the flop.
I see you haven't posted much, and seem to want to learn the game. Below is a link to a video you may be interested in. It deals with commitment decisions.

http://www.pokerschoolonline.com/art...ment-Decisions

Good luck at the tables!
 

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