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Q6 call, high blinds, call is to play for first. Is this ever good call?

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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 05:22 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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The blind should call here, but since you don't know for certain that they will make the call, let's look at it both ways... if they call or if they fold.

To make this call, you would have to put 1135 into a pot of 3160 (3690 if the other opp calls). That is 36% of the pot at that moment, 30.8% of the total pot if the other opp calls.

To make this a correct play, you need to have a higher equity value than this percentage.
If you put into pokerstove your cards and a range of any pair, any broadway, any ace for the opps, you have an equity of 23.8% of both opps are in the pot. If the blind drops, you have 34.2% equity.

Due to this, if the blind drops, you have 34.2% equity - 36% of chips into the pot = -1.8% EV.
If the blind stays, then you have 23.8% equity - 30.8% of the chips into the pot = -7% EV.

Both of the EV's are negative, so you should fold in this situation and it's a worse EV play if the blind stays in the hand. You do want to make a deep a deep run in the tourney, but you want to try to get more chips in a +EV situation.


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Mon Jan 02, 2012, 05:35 PM
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oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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What do you think Larius is jamming over the shortstack's committing raise?

It does make sense to make slightly -EV gambles if you are at a strong skill disadvantage to the rest of the players. But, it's probably better to do it in a multiway pot with a hand with decent multiway potential...something more along the lines of 98s than Q6o. Plus, this a pretty decent spot to climb the ladder, rather than putting your stack at risk with no fold equity.


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