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66 button w/ lag ug chip lead bet. (CAll? fold? why?)

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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 05:03 AM
(#1)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
The answer to this question is, "it depends".

So instead, I'll put up comments about each of your possible actions:

CALL-

A bit "meh" overall, but possible.

The problem with a call is that you are too un-likely to flop a set with 66, and too likely to see at least 1 over card which would make your hand an insta-fold with a 1500 stack in the event and 1 to bust to make it ITM.

The plus of a call is that if you DO flop a set, it is quite likely with someone as aggro as this you can pick up a fat stack by checking to allowing him to bet on continuation. The chance he will do so is pretty goof is he has been actively and frequently raising oop to steal blinds.

RAISE-

Also a bit "meh", but I'd think it is slightly better than a call.

The problem with a raise is that the only viable raise amount for you with this hand is an all in pre flop. This is risky with a hand like 66 on a stack your size here, because a) this is an EP raiser, and ANY ep raiser might have a big hand...even a maniac, and b) if you lose the hand you are crippled on the bubble; with someone so close to busting that would be bad, bad, bad!

NOTE: If you make any standard size raise, or even a min raise, you will be committing yourself to push on the flop anyway (if the villain calls), so you may as well move all in to extract maximum value from any race you might be in if you plan to raise at all.

The plus of a raise is that you may seen the opponent fold; the chips you pick up will certainly help you to run deeper than a min cash. Another plus is that you might get called by a race hand, and win the race for a big chip up.

The questions you really need to ask yourself are:

- With 1 to go to the money though, is courting what might be at best a race worth the chip up?
- How solid is your info on the fact this villain might be simply using aggro moves to pick u blinds?

FOLD-

Possibly your best move.

It is only your SB, and you will be itm soon. After the bubble bursts there is a lot more value in testing what you think is a loose raiser with a middle pp than short of the money; you lose now and you are out, but you lose after the bubble busts at least you made a small profit.

If you had a stronger hand here, say like TT, I think a raise all in would be better, but with this hand a fold is probably the best option for you in teh widest range of circumstances.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner
 
Old
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 07:42 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deleted user View Post
Thank you, I like to see that *****d out.
What now?

I agree that folding is perfectly fine, and I think calling is actually more than a bit meh. You don't have the stack depth to setmine and you'll basically whiff the board every time you don't hit a set, so calling is straight-up bad.

If you know that this guy is light UTG (and not a maniac who will open/call with QTo), then I actually really like shoving here, but absolutely not on the bubble. If this weren't the bubble, I would say shove this all day.
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 12:48 PM
(#3)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
This is an english idiom that means something bad in the US culture.

Kind of like how "sitting on your fanny" in the US means something totally different than it does in the U.K. In the U.S. "fanny" is a gentle term for your rear end, that is suitable for use when speaking to children...sort of a funny thing, like saying "potty". In the U.S. EVERYONE has a "fanny".

In the U.K. it means something totally different, and only girls have "fannies"...


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 12:52 PM..
 
Old
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 02:24 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
lol, I think I've had the same word censored before. Sometimes the censor makes me laugh. I just couldn't for the life of me figure out which word you used. Makes sense now.

 

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