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do i need to call the big river bet-big$11

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do i need to call the big river bet-big$11 - Tue Jan 03, 2012, 03:07 PM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
opp-fuatt

my read to my opp loves to see flop and if he hit something he will call

i have 2 sample hands with him maybe this will help with your decision

2 hands of my opp





above is the 2 hands I've seen him play and I'm very much willing to play with him seeing 2 hands he played



now my hand

pre-flop - std raise and my opp who loves to pay for the flop called

post flop - std cbet if he hit nothing i saw him fold a couple of times but if he hit a pair or a draw he will definitely come along

turn - K, I think this hand made my the hand the best hand, i was happy to double barrel because i'm so confident with my hand because if he got a straight on the flop he should be 3betting me right there and then but he just called me so i figured he was on a pair or draw. but why is he min 3betting me here. This I don't know the time I'm playing with him

river - 4, completed the 1 card straight which he could have but also could have not because he's betting pattern, I don't know

***result after the analysis so we can analyze again
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 03:26 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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The pre flop play is ok as long as your info says you can win the pot on continuation a decent amount of the time. If you were in earlier position, I'd say it was a little loose, but in the highjack it is ok.

The flop is quite standard as you say, so really does not need much comment either.

the turn is where it gets interesting...

Per your read info, this is not a villain likely to bet or raise on a straight draw. That means he probably caught the K in some fashion.

AK and KQ beat you, as do any of the Kx hands that make 2 pair, so when a passive player raises you, no matter WHAT the raise sizing, you must re-assess the strength of any 1 pair hand.

In this spot, the fact he raises at all means I do not really think a lot of the time he is on K9 or KT here, although KT might be a possibility if the guy has shown he is prone to call on gut shots and overs only.

The fact is, an arguement can be made for not calling the TURN min raise.

1) this guy is pretty passive.
2) there is not a whole lot you can beat, although there is some.
3) the info you give leads me to believe that you will likely get called even if the villain does hold a hand you beat.

Because your stack size cannot sustain a call of a min raise, AND a lead on the river of any reasonable amount, you are probably better off folding while you still have 4k+ chips. Consider...

If you call, you go to 3900. That puts about 25% of your chips in the pot.

If you lead even a small portion of the pot (well under half), you will cross a committment point.

If you check the river, you are un-likely to see a bet sizing that you can call either (under 1000 chips).

Together this all adds up to the turn being your "decision street"; if you continue past the turn, you are probably better off doing so by raising.

As played though, by calling the turn and passing a committment point, that makes the river a call as well.

A raise all in is rash, as that means you might lose your entire stack, and any chance of continuing in the event; there is just too much risk in that.

NOT calling, even though doing so may well hurt your stack severely, negates ANY value there was in calling the turn raise by this passive player. If he is on KT or K9 and was over valuing his hand, you just cost yourself any chance of winning.

So to me this is a crying call on the river, but I think you may well be beat. I'd really rather have folded to the min raise on the turn, or made my stand right there...


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 03:46 PM.. Reason: lost track of hero's stack, so had to re-write.
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 03:26 PM
(#3)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
The betting pattern is completely different in the hand against you, he reraises you on the turn, maybe he has a K as well, or the straight or straight draw. He leads out on the river which appears ominous. I am making a crying call here because even donks can get a hand sometimes too!

Cheers,

TC
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 03:51 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Do you really think he's turning 98/97/96 into a bluff here? The only weaker K he really has is KT. This is a gross spot but I just don't think he's bluffing with worse often enough for you to call. He can have so many hands besides a 5 too. T9, 67, etc. You started this hand with 100 BBs, and I'd hate to dump all that on one pair. You still have 80 BBs if you fold.


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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 03:55 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
The pre flop play is ok as long as your info says you can win the pot on continuation a decent amount of the time. If you were in earlier position, I'd say it was a little loose, but in the highjack it is ok.

The flop is quite standard as you say, so really does not need much comment either.

the turn is where it gets interesting...

Per your read info, this is not a villain likely to bet or raise on a straight draw. That means he probably caught the K in some fashion.

AK and KQ beat you, as do any of the Kx hands that make 2 pair, so when a passive player raises you, no matter WHAT the raise sizing, you must re-assess the strength of any 1 pair hand.

In this spot, the fact he raises at all means I do not really think a lot of the time he is on K9 or KT here, although KT might be a possibility if the guy has shown he is prone to call on gut shots and overs only.

The a call of the min raise is a bit of a risk, but you can probably afford it...barely.

I think on the river I would prefer a BET/FOLD line to a check/call line though.

Doing that, betting an amount you'd be willing to CALL, then folding to a raise is probably better for you since I do not think this guy is raising ou very often on any hand KJ is ahead of.

Since you did not lead the river, I have to assume that you set yourself a "call budget". It would seem to me that 1500 is probably in excess of what you;d like to call, since it puts a big hurting on your stack if you are wrong. that means if you are checking the river, then this is probably a FOLD.

but I'd have probably been willing to lead about 1000 (or check/call about 1000), just in case he is betting a K9 or KT, and he got to the turn on the straight draw alone.
Thank you Sir,

perfect analysis this will be great the next time i got a situation like this

i think i should have folded to my opp C/R

after looking back at this play over and over again i realized something

he never 3bet and never raises at the river so that means it is strong---this one point I missed i think i fell in love with the K again always doing the same mistake over and over when this leak will stop

but i love the river bet/fold strategy will definitely do that next time if i want to go to showdown a chip saved is a chip earned 500chips will definitely go a long way



opp definitely outplayed me here by just calling me on my bet then C/R on the turn the K turn really put me in bad situation

but i applaud my opp for making a great play he made the bet just enough for me to call max value for my opp

also learned something from my opp

this is the best part---learning from the mistakes you did--more valuable than anything

learning 2 ways- learning from the bad play i did and learning from the nice play my opp made
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:01 PM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Do you really think he's turning 98/97/96 into a bluff here? The only weaker K he really has is KT. This is a gross spot but I just don't think he's bluffing with worse often enough for you to call. He can have so many hands besides a 5 too. T9, 67, etc. You started this hand with 100 BBs, and I'd hate to dump all that on one pair. You still have 80 BBs if you fold.
I agree with this 100%.

That is why I never pay the min raise on the turn from a passive player with just KJ.

AK...that is dicier to fold, as I am now ahead of ANY K he might be over valuing, and over-valuation of 1 pair hands can happen from bad players. But agaisnt that you have the fact PASSIVE players are passive because they rarely raise on hands which do not beat 1 pair hands...

But for KJ here, the turn is the place to fold.


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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:05 PM
(#7)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
Thank you Sir,

perfect analysis this will be great the next time i got a situation like this



but i love the river bet/fold strategy will definitely do that next time if i want to go to showdown a chip saved is a chip earned 500chips will definitely go a long way
Please re-read my analysis.

I lost track of your stack size, and changed my view AFTER I noticed. I wrote that thinking you had enough left to stay above 33% investment by betting 1000...

I included a note about my change in the edit comments.

You do not have enough chips to sustain a bet/fold river.

Please, please, PLEASE do NOT do that with this amount in your stack, and when it takes you to a 45% investment!


Double Bracelet Winner
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:36 PM
(#8)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Please re-read my analysis.

I lost track of your stack size, and changed my view AFTER I noticed. I wrote that thinking you had enough left to stay above 33% investment by betting 1000...

I included a note about my change in the edit comments.

You do not have enough chips to sustain a bet/fold river.

Please, please, PLEASE do NOT do that with this amount in your stack, and when it takes you to a 45% investment!

well noted sir,

in just one hand i can't believe that i can learned a lot which I'm going to use the next time

HEP HEP

ONE TIME BIG TIME

i can see it coming very very soon
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:41 PM
(#9)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Do you really think he's turning 98/97/96 into a bluff here? The only weaker K he really has is KT. This is a gross spot but I just don't think he's bluffing with worse often enough for you to call. He can have so many hands besides a 5 too. T9, 67, etc. You started this hand with 100 BBs, and I'd hate to dump all that on one pair. You still have 80 BBs if you fold.
True, very true

i was blinded by K and forgot that he can min raise with 2 pair, set, and straight,

i was so focus on the 2 hands he played and get lucky that i forgot the min raise part.

the min raise is the part of the story i missed, if he just called my bet that's maybe the time when im ahead but the min raised part there that saying Dude your crushed here get out of the hand.

my read is opp will call (but never raise and the raise is in good size saying there's some strength)--another part i should know but forgot

important part-lessons learned

stored safely in my poker mind

Last edited by marvinsytan; Tue Jan 03, 2012 at 04:44 PM..
 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:50 PM
(#10)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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By the way Marvin, your opponent never check-raised nor 3-bet you. You bet the turn and he raised. That's a 2-bet. It's called a 3-bet preflop because it's actually a reraise. The blind is the 1-bet, the raise is a 2-bet and the reraise is a 3-bet. Just a little clarification on terminology.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Tue Jan 03, 2012, 04:55 PM
(#11)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
i was so focus on the 2 hands he played and get lucky that i forgot the min raise part.
It's pretty standard to get it in with QJ there. Top pair + open ender on a rainbow board has a ton of equity. Even if he is against AA he has three Js, two Qs, four 8s, and four Ks, for 13 outs, which is basically a coinflip. And after seeing what the other guy has shown up with before, he can easily have worse.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 01:38 AM
(#12)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
By the way Marvin, your opponent never check-raised nor 3-bet you. You bet the turn and he raised. That's a 2-bet. It's called a 3-bet preflop because it's actually a reraise. The blind is the 1-bet, the raise is a 2-bet and the reraise is a 3-bet. Just a little clarification on terminology.
thank you so much I'm so stupid

i thought if someone raise and another one reraised that's a 3bet already I'm so stupid

so that's the 2bet only I'm so embarrassed but now i know

thank you so much for correcting me

lessons learned

so a reraised is a reraised not a 3bet a 3bet is if someone raise another reraise then another one 3bet there you go 1bet 2bet 3bet damn so stupid i want to hide

it's clearer now
 

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