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STT bubble out, should I fold without read?

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STT bubble out, should I fold without read? - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 01:42 AM
(#1)
Jamster81's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 63
Long game, 75 mins or so, and a long time spent at the bubble, frustrating. I have not read much on bubble play that will be next thing to read more on...

Despite many hands in this game no idea of any of their pushing ranges or stealing hands anything shown down was not out of the ordinary. I feel like this was a mistake, and was hoping this was a steal attempt.

I didn't notice much about this player earlier in the game, not loose.

 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 02:03 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
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a read on the opp here would be a big help. Was the player playing much out of the blinds? Did the player showdown any marginal hands? Were they playing a large number of hands? Reads on you will also matter (same questions they should be asking about you).

Those would play into my thought process here and make my decision for me.

If the opp was not playing much in the blinds, not trying to steal much and not playing many hands, then their raise will be with a better hand.
In this case, calling to see if you hit a part of the flop is the play I'd make, instead of shoving, as you could easily be behind.
KJ is a good hand heads up, but you're behind any pair or ace and the opp could be making this raise with any of those hands. They may raise with less too, which is where the reads on the opp would come into play, but all of the hands you're behind are definitely a large part of their range.

If the opp was playing loose (in a bunch of pots, very active and always raising), then I'd be much more inclined to shove here, as you did. Your hand plays much better against a wider range and if the opp was playing this way, then shoving is the correct play.

You are in 4th and I'm assuming 3 places get paid, so somewhere along the line, you're going to need to pick a spot and play a hand, to get chips to move ahead of one of the other player's stack, to get ITM. Depending on reads on the opp, this could be the time to do it, then again, it might not.

75 min for one of these is a bit longer than normal, but is nowhere near a long time. I've been in some of these that have lasted well over 2 hrs, almost to 3 hrs.


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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 02:09 AM
(#3)
DasherF78's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 75
Hi Jamster,

Personally, I'm shoving too

1. The villian is in a steal spot.
2. You have ~10 BB.
3. You have pretty good fold equity
4. Running an equity calculation you are a slight underdog (45%/55%) against a range of top 20% hands.

The only issue I have is why he used a standard raise on such a small stack, it's a pretty big leak for him to fold after that raise.

Interesting to see what the experts say
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 03:36 AM
(#4)
Jamster81's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 63
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWK24 View Post
a read on the opp here would be a big help. Was the player playing much out of the blinds? Did the player showdown any marginal hands? Were they playing a large number of hands? Reads on you will also matter (same questions they should be asking about you).

Those would play into my thought process here and make my decision for me.

If the opp was not playing much in the blinds, not trying to steal much and not playing many hands, then their raise will be with a better hand.
In this case, calling to see if you hit a part of the flop is the play I'd make, instead of shoving, as you could easily be behind.
KJ is a good hand heads up, but you're behind any pair or ace and the opp could be making this raise with any of those hands. They may raise with less too, which is where the reads on the opp would come into play, but all of the hands you're behind are definitely a large part of their range.

If the opp was playing loose (in a bunch of pots, very active and always raising), then I'd be much more inclined to shove here, as you did. Your hand plays much better against a wider range and if the opp was playing this way, then shoving is the correct play.

You are in 4th and I'm assuming 3 places get paid, so somewhere along the line, you're going to need to pick a spot and play a hand, to get chips to move ahead of one of the other player's stack, to get ITM. Depending on reads on the opp, this could be the time to do it, then again, it might not.

75 min for one of these is a bit longer than normal, but is nowhere near a long time. I've been in some of these that have lasted well over 2 hrs, almost to 3 hrs.
Thanks, only one table and I was paying attention, but didn't get much of a read. He was not playing very loose but was not afraid of shoving and stealing. I installed HEM for this game and it shows 50% raise from the SB from 23 hands.

Earlier in the bubble I shoved 85s from the small blind and was called so that would obviously be important for an observant opponent.

About the length of the game, it was more the fact that it was a long game to go out to what I felt was a poor decision. I didn't think of calling at the time I'll try to remember that option for next time thanks.

My first impression of HEM is it is better for STT as you can fiter stats by number of players which when I looked at PT3 doesn't seem to be available , I've got the HUD displaying for 7-10 players, then 4-6, and 2-3.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 11:13 AM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamster81 View Post
Thanks, only one table and I was paying attention, but didn't get much of a read. He was not playing very loose but was not afraid of shoving and stealing. I installed HEM for this game and it shows 50% raise from the SB from 23 hands.

Earlier in the bubble I shoved 85s from the small blind and was called so that would obviously be important for an observant opponent.
Jamster81, 50% from the SB is really high.
To me, that would make the opp look looser than normal (or they're just getting lucky and getting cards in the SB). That, along with them seeing you get caught with 58s (although 58s at least has some playability, as it's got 44% equity against ATC), would tend to make me think that the opp could be playing looser here.

With that being the case, you can still certainly call and see if you hit a part of the flop, if you want to play it safer, but it does give a much better reason for shoving here too.
The looser the opp is playing and the looser that you're perceived to be, the better a shove here is.


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