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holdemaces variance challenge

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holdemaces variance challenge - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 03:31 AM
(#1)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
ok sounds mad but im currently smashing all in every hand 25c stgs will let you know the results shortly all ready lost 5 out off 5
 
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variance - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 04:14 AM
(#2)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
ok guys 10 touneys ten all ins first hand any two cards.
results 8-2 in there favour lol expected
could of been more than two but on two off them had multple callers
so my conclusion to online poker that the variance runs true
once and for all the question on variance i have answered for my self
i am happy with the results knowing that 8 out of ten better hands held up
i do feel sry for the guy who just had is kk busted by my 97 and the guy with his ak so opologise to them now.
may seem a odd test but when your just playing the game you dont realise whats happening sometimes and only see the worse side of it,
the more games you play the more variance you will see i.e toss a coin heads or tails and one day heads will win more,the next tails win more,thats variance explainred the simple way.
if your not winning on ere that im affraid is down to you and no way any fault of pokerstars.

theres more about losing than just playing poker itself e.g bankrool management etc are all a big part off the game,
if like myself you play 18hrs plus sometimes variance will get you always,where as my advice to anyone struggling to deal with the variance would be to play hit and miss at various times and various days to avoid lady lucks bad side.

to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.

ty for reading and hope this helps some off you with variance issues like have,but now just going to except them and continue to play
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:13 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.
........
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:15 AM
(#4)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:59 AM
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mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
AND GL WITH THAT... DUDE! this IS NOT what I meant by playing a rush! So you know...
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:03 AM
(#6)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
lol i know dude was just a test tyhat worked how it should
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:07 AM
(#7)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by Django66 View Post
far too small a sample, you need to do this 1000 times at least.
doesnt matter wether 1000 hands or 10 in my book of averages it added up 8-2 about the right ratio so am happy with the test i did,
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:14 AM
(#8)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
doesnt matter wether 1000 hands or 10 in my book of averages it added up 8-2 about the right ratio so am happy with the test i did,
no, no, no, no,

you'll never be completely sure,

DO THE THOUSAND !!!!!!!
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:17 AM
(#9)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,024
(Community Coordinator)
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
ok sounds mad but im currently smashing all in every hand 25c stgs will let you know the results shortly all ready lost 5 out off 5
There was a similar 'experiment' carried out by another member in the Skill League, DertymcGerty I believe but I may stand corrected, who went all-in ATC's.

He finished the month very close to the bottom, if not at the bottom, of the standings.

Personally, I wouldn't spend too much money on this one.

Raiser


Moderator

Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:23 AM
(#10)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
but seriously, you have to try this in a cash game, tourneys are unsuitable.

i'm willing to assist in any experiment.




ps: the smileys i forgot before.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 11:10 AM
(#11)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Glad you are starting to understand how variance works both ways and favours no one in particular...

But...

Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
to beat vartiance at the tables as one simple rule wish i could stick to it,watch and observe,e.g if you see kk win twice all ready and you have kk,be worried,not saying you will lose on it but the odds are against you when it has won twice all ready.
Complete nonsense, sorry.

The deck is shuffled between each hand. Hands of poker are statistically independent of each other.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indepen...lity_theory%29

Having aces or kings cracked in a previous hand makes it no more or less likely they will lose on this hand. The odds will always be 1 in 5 (or whatever it is, depending on players in pot.. check in pokerstove).

You should not play your AA or KK more cautiously if you have recently won with that hand, same for any hand in poker

This link explains quite clearly what I'm getting at. Poker hands ARE independent, because the deck is shuffled before each hand.
http://mathcentral.uregina.ca/beyond...dependent.html

(In the paragraph at the bottom it is getting at the fact that being dealt an Ace is less likely if a player before you has been dealt an ace in that hand, i.e. the cards you are dealt IS dependent on the cards your opponents are dealt in that hand. BUT the outcome of each individual hand IS completely 100% independent of any previous hands.)

Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 12:16 PM.. Reason: extra link
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 05:00 PM
(#12)
RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
BronzeStar
Tom... honestly, I think a simple reply like mine would have sufficed regarding that part of holdemaces's post. lol
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 05:16 PM
(#13)
Moxie Pip's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,853
Cards have NO MEMORY.

Period,end of story holdem. If you are playing KK incorrectly because you just saw two KK hands hold up then you are NOT understanding variance at all,I'm afraid. Each KK hand,or AA hand,or 72o hand for that matter,exists only in the bubble of THAT hand. It is not informed by the hands that came before. So KK is 77%,or whatever the exact percentage is,against any 2 random cards each and every time you get it. It doesn't fluctuate within that bubble of the one hand. EVER. The variance is that,over a large sample, the percentages will play out. Odds are like water---give them enough space and they WILL find their level.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:17 PM
(#14)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
Tom... honestly, I think a simple reply like mine would have sufficed regarding that part of holdemaces's post. lol
true... But people misunderstanding statistics annoys me (and it makes my day job harder)
Plus I don't like the idea of people coming to this forum looking for advice on variance and believing that post.

On the other hand... a misunderstanding of statistics by my opponents is probably what drives a lot of my profits on the tables.. so maybe I should just stay silent
 
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complete nonsense - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:43 PM
(#15)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
complete nonsense ok,off cause your opinion is your opiinion but whatever you think im not wrong on this one with variance, watever you say in my opinion so ok check your own hand history stastistics will show probably 2-1 wins with aa for example its the law of averages so how can my statement be wrong? so you win all the time with aa,wow wish i was that lucky,and i never said play it different i said play it cautious,really this is obvious beyond your thinking abilities,if you think the law of averages is wrong,its obvious im affraid you see aa win 3 times at that table for e.g variance will put down one of them in a bad way thats why we lose on aa etc so obvious.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:57 PM
(#16)
Tomcrockpot's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 140
Quote:
Originally Posted by holdemace486 View Post
complete nonsense ok,off cause your opinion is your opiinion but whatever you think im not wrong on this one with variance, watever you say in my opinion so ok check your own hand history stastistics will show probably 2-1 wins with aa for example its the law of averages so how can my statement be wrong? so you win all the time with aa,wow wish i was that lucky,and i never said play it different i said play it cautious,really this is obvious beyond your thinking abilities,if you think the law of averages is wrong,its obvious im affraid you see aa win 3 times at that table for e.g variance will put down one of them in a bad way thats why we lose on aa etc so obvious.
Sometimes things that seem "Obvious" are actually wrong.

This area of statistics was covered at school, it's GCSE level, you have probably just forgotten, no shame in that, I have forgotten a lot of my GCSE history for example.

Was just trying to help. I give up, believe what you like.

(By the way I studied maths at uni for 4 years. This is not my "opinion", it's proven mathematics)

Last edited by Tomcrockpot; Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 08:15 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:58 PM
(#17)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Unfortunately, what you are saying does not tally with mathematical probability and statistics Holdem, which is what everyone else is trying to point out to you.

Odds and probabilities always remain the same. Aces should hold up 80% of the time over a giant sample, but just because Aces lost three times in a row does not mean that they will win the next time.

Try tossing a coin a thousand times in a row, you could have runs of ten heads, but that does not mean the next one will be tails; the statistical odds/probabilities of it being one or the other the next time is exactly the same as the last time, that is variance!

You cannot beat variance, you can only live with and deal with it positively.

I saw a blog from a player who was running 20% on Aces wins over two months, after a year he was winning 80% exactly as the maths says he would.

You really must get these things out of your head if you want to progress as a poker player!

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:00 PM
(#18)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
last year i won 87.9 % of my AA in cash games
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:19 PM
(#19)
holdemace486's Avatar
Since: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,760
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Unfortunately, what you are saying does not tally with mathematical probability and statistics Holdem, which is what everyone else is trying to point out to you.

Odds and probabilities always remain the same. Aces should hold up 80% of the time over a giant sample, but just because Aces lost three times in a row does not mean that they will win the next time.

Try tossing a coin a thousand times in a row, you could have runs of ten heads, but that does not mean the next one will be tails; the statistical odds/probabilities of it being one or the other the next time is exactly the same as the last time, that is variance!

You cannot beat variance, you can only live with and deal with it positively.

I saw a blog from a player who was running 20% on Aces wins over two months, after a year he was winning 80% exactly as the maths says he would.

You really must get these things out of your head if you want to progress as a poker player!

Cheers,

TC
did i not mention cion flipping at the begginning,and congrats on the maths degree but you are wrong variance can be beat with some carefull thought trulely,nothing to do with the maths statistics aa 80 percent i know it holds up,its the 20 percent we need to aviod i.e law of averages its so obvious think about it really,e.g the more times you see aa out and winning the next time the chances of winning are down slightly common sense dont need mathmatical equasions to tell me that probabilities
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:22 PM
(#20)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
Guys why bother he has it all figured out until tomorrow, when he will ask another ridiculous question
 

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