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is it ok to take this line-big11

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is it ok to take this line-big11 - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 03:05 PM
(#1)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
my read on opp CO- is raising light he loves to raise in position

so jamming here I think I'm ahead

is this fine considering it's too early in the tournament to be risking my tournament life

or worst move?

 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 03:43 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
With a raise AND two callers behind on this level, i'd probably never jam AQo
its just too likely that at least one of the three is calling. and probably not with a worse hand than AQ.
my guess is that you're racing a mid pair (at least) for your touney life. and this early that's just too big a risk. Even if he IS light, you think all three are?
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 03:57 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
I have the opposite impression. This is a typical squeeze spot. The reason jamming is good is because callers will typically be doing so on wide ranges; if they had a hand that could legitimately call a jam, they'd have jammed themselves. With the callers, the pot is now about a third of your stack, and you do have fold equity with your AQ, which adds to the value of shoving. Your read, combined with the general read we have on players who call behind, indicates that everyone might be weak here. Even if you're called by a better hand like JJ, the overlay more than makes up for that.

I like the shove.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 04:03 PM
(#4)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
good = 1

bad = 1

wow this is exciting

let's see what our Great Teachers will have to say
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 04:10 PM
(#5)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I have the opposite impression. This is a typical squeeze spot. The reason jamming is good is because callers will typically be doing so on wide ranges; if they had a hand that could legitimately call a jam, they'd have jammed themselves. With the callers, the pot is now about a third of your stack, and you do have fold equity with your AQ, which adds to the value of shoving. Your read, combined with the general read we have on players who call behind, indicates that everyone might be weak here. Even if you're called by a better hand like JJ, the overlay more than makes up for that.

I like the shove.
If this was an ITM situation, I would agree 100% but at this level....not so much. Gotta get there first. If you dont mind flippin this early, more power to ya. Guess i'm just not that brave...
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 04:10 PM
(#6)
roomik17's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 4,556
BronzeStar
you were robbed today Marvin...

Last edited by roomik17; Wed Jan 04, 2012 at 04:11 PM.. Reason: this has nothing to do with that hand
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 04:38 PM
(#7)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by roomik17 View Post
you were robbed today Marvin...
i know what your saying

i don't think about that maybe they saw something that they can't see it to me

im still on and will still keep trying
 
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AQ fold - shove - call? - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 07:42 PM
(#8)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
my read on opp CO- is raising light he loves to raise in position

so jamming here I think I'm ahead

is this fine considering it's too early in the tournament to be risking my tournament life

or worst move?
This looks like level 6 with slow structured blinds (and antes), 10 minutes levels with 3000 starting chips, and assuming we’re not even close to the bubble.

Currently you have 28BB, facing an opportunistic CO, followed by two callers, with no real reads on the two callers. The dead money in the pot is 40% of your stack! You are down but not out of the tourney because of its slow structure. At a high stake table, I would be concerned that the BTN may have set you (or the SB) up into making a squeeze-play, by slow playing a premium pair; with your holdings (AQ) it would most likely be KK. I wouldn’t be concerned about a slow played set-up at a low stake table (unless I had a read). Other considerations may come into play, such as table dynamics; are you better than the players at this table; is there easy bait at this table; can you chip-up against tight players on your left.

I’m going to assume this is a lower stake game, and that the BTN wouldn’t slow play JJ+/AK, if he held them.

Fold option: You can leave this hand and still have lots of tourney to play. Pro: If the table dynamics are right, you still have time to play poker and chip-up. Con: You have an awkward stack to try to chip-up with.

Call option: You could call, and be stack committed if you hit the flop. This would mean investing just over 7% of your stack, getting 5.5:1, and setting up a SPR of 2. Pro: You close the betting; you have good relative position.

Raise option: If you intend on raising, you have to consider the pot size and the comparative stack sizes. In this case, the ONLY type of raise would be a SHOVE. With the dead money in the pot you only need to have 40% equity (vs. one villain), to make this a +EV play. Pro: With your read, I feel the majority of the time it is going to be a coin flip at worse; you have the added BONUS of fold equity; if called, and you win, you more than double up; if folded around you increase your stack 40%. Con: You may get called because they will be getting good odds as well, and variance may end your tourney early.

There are many times that a +EV play isn’t a good move in tournament style games. The chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you gain. There are so many variables that come into play making a decision like this.

All in all, without dynamic reads at my table; being a little short; far away from the money; the chance to more than a double up; fold equity; and the overall risk/reward factor – I’m SHOVING!

P.S. How did you get the replayer to stop? I’ve been trying to get the replayer to stop at certain streets (where decisions must be analyzed), so as not to bias any hand analysis.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:08 PM
(#9)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Just remove the action from the text file King!

Marvin, do yourself a huge favour and look at the criteria for winning MOTW and now MOTM. What did you do wrong? Despite the amount of postings you have on the forum, what was the simple thing you did not do until the result went against you???!!!!

Sometimes, poker like life, is seeing the wood for the trees!

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:23 PM
(#10)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by topthecat View Post
Just remove the action from the text file King!

Marvin, do yourself a huge favour and look at the criteria for winning MOTW and now MOTM. What did you do wrong? Despite the amount of postings you have on the forum, what was the simple thing you did not do until the result went against you???!!!!

Sometimes, poker like life, is seeing the wood for the trees!

Cheers,

TC
thank you for the tip

i will definitely look into it again
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:26 PM
(#11)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
King

about hiding the results

you just have to delete the part that you don't want to see in the details

thank you for your analysis

lots of information learned
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 10:13 AM
(#12)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
This looks like level 6 with slow structured blinds (and antes), 10 minutes levels with 3000 starting chips, and assuming we’re not even close to the bubble.

Currently you have 28BB, facing an opportunistic CO, followed by two callers, with no real reads on the two callers. The dead money in the pot is 40% of your stack! You are down but not out of the tourney because of its slow structure. At a high stake table, I would be concerned that the BTN may have set you (or the SB) up into making a squeeze-play, by slow playing a premium pair; with your holdings (AQ) it would most likely be KK. I wouldn’t be concerned about a slow played set-up at a low stake table (unless I had a read). Other considerations may come into play, such as table dynamics; are you better than the players at this table; is there easy bait at this table; can you chip-up against tight players on your left.

I’m going to assume this is a lower stake game, and that the BTN wouldn’t slow play JJ+/AK, if he held them.

Fold option: You can leave this hand and still have lots of tourney to play. Pro: If the table dynamics are right, you still have time to play poker and chip-up. Con: You have an awkward stack to try to chip-up with.

Call option: You could call, and be stack committed if you hit the flop. This would mean investing just over 7% of your stack, getting 5.5:1, and setting up a SPR of 2. Pro: You close the betting; you have good relative position.

Raise option: If you intend on raising, you have to consider the pot size and the comparative stack sizes. In this case, the ONLY type of raise would be a SHOVE. With the dead money in the pot you only need to have 40% equity (vs. one villain), to make this a +EV play. Pro: With your read, I feel the majority of the time it is going to be a coin flip at worse; you have the added BONUS of fold equity; if called, and you win, you more than double up; if folded around you increase your stack 40%. Con: You may get called because they will be getting good odds as well, and variance may end your tourney early.

There are many times that a +EV play isn’t a good move in tournament style games. The chips you lose are more valuable than the chips you gain. There are so many variables that come into play making a decision like this.

All in all, without dynamic reads at my table; being a little short; far away from the money; the chance to more than a double up; fold equity; and the overall risk/reward factor – I’m SHOVING!

P.S. How did you get the replayer to stop? I’ve been trying to get the replayer to stop at certain streets (where decisions must be analyzed), so as not to bias any hand analysis.
This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 10:41 AM
(#13)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

I agree with chris, and I agree with kings analysus to the point of those two lil words... "I'M SHOVING" still think you have a plenty good playable stack to get your chips in, in a better situation later.
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 10:42 AM
(#14)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

Would you elaborate on these two points? I'm not following the first one, and spadez actually advocated for a shove.
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 11:14 AM
(#15)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
This is a super analysis and nothing for me to add. Marvin your postings are showing a pattern here that is very exploitable. I don't need to see the result here to know this is an auto fold at most points in the tourney. There are too few spots where you are ahead! You are better served to fold and find spots in position.

what is my pattern?

what do i need to do?
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 12:08 PM
(#16)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Would you elaborate on these two points? I'm not following the first one, and spadez actually advocated for a shove.
We have watched enough of your posts marvin that I will simply min raise JJ+ and wait for you to jam! I'm not agreeing on the shove but his analysis is spot on. His choice is simply different than mine! You are never ahead of 3 other players here so we fold and find better spots. We don't even have a pair!
Keep in mind that my style is TAG and other styles are profitable but doing the math hear I think suggests fold.


Last edited by 19honu62; Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 12:18 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 12:43 PM
(#17)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
We have watched enough of your posts marvin that I will simply min raise JJ+ and wait for you to jam! I'm not agreeing on the shove but his analysis is spot on. His choice is simply different than mine! You are never ahead of 3 other players here so we fold and find better spots. We don't even have a pair!
Keep in mind that my style is TAG and other styles are profitable but doing the math hear I think suggests fold.

if i saw 19honu62 BTN min raising my BB i will insta fold
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 12:52 PM
(#18)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Do you really think those guys are flatting with QQ+, AK to induce a squeeze? Probably not. Most likely all those callers are pretty weak. You're going to see a lot of suited connector-type stuff, broadways, and small pairs. You should have a good amount of fold equity. The only hand you're really worried about is AK, and I'd mostly discount that from all but the first player's range. If you do get called it is usually by a smaller pair and against them you're flipping. And there's some overlay there making it +EV. Not to mention this was against a LP raise and call. They can both be super wide.

I think that between your fold equity and hand equity this is a +EV shove, but it isn't a huge edge. The question is are you good enough to pass up a small edge?

Let's estimate:

With about 900 in the pot you only need about 40% equity if you get called! so F% of the time you win the 900 uncontested and (100-F)% of the time you get called and have about 40% equity against [22+, AJ+] (some random range of hands that think they're flipping, should probably have KQs in there too). Anyhow if you're 40% to win then you're already in the +EV. Against [77+, AQ+] you have 32% equity or about 33% chance of adding 3000 to your stack (67% chance of losing 2000).

F*900+(1-F)(.33*3000-.67*2000)>0
900F+(1-F)(1000-1333)>0
900F+(1-F)(-333)>0
900F-333+333F>0
F>.27

So if you get folds 27% of the time this is +EV even against [77+ AQ+]. And there is a ton of trash in their ranges that they're probably not calling with. Lots of broadways, suited connectors, small pairs.

Even if we make the calling range [TT+ AQ+] we still have about 27% equity and only need them to fold a bit over 40% of the time. This sounds like a lot, but how tight must their range be for them to have [TT+ AQ+] 60% of the time?!

And in these calculations I have not discounted QQ+ at all. It's really hard for anyone to have those hands here.

While it's a small edge it's still an edge and you really should take it. I love the shove. Well-played Marvin.


4 Time Bracelet Winner



Last edited by oriholic; Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 09:41 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 12:59 PM
(#19)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by 19honu62 View Post
We have watched enough of your posts marvin that I will simply min raise JJ+ and wait for you to jam!
Well obviously we're calling Marvin's jam with JJ+. But surely you have more stuff in your cutoff opening range than just JJ+?


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#20)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
Do you really think those guys are flatting with QQ+, AK to induce a squeeze? Probably not. Most likely all those callers are pretty weak. You're going to see a lot of suited connector-type stuff, broadways, and small pairs. You should have a good amount of fold equity. The only hand you're really worried about is AK, and I'd mostly discount that from all but the first player's range. If you do get called it is usually by a smaller pair and against them you're flipping. And there's some overlay there making it +EV. Not to mention this was against a LP raise and call. They can both be super wide.

I think that between your fold equity and hand equity this is a +EV shove, but it isn't a huge edge. The question is are you good enough to pass up a small edge?

Let's estimate:

With about 900 in the pot you only need about 40% equity if you get called! so F% of the time you win the 900 uncontested and (100-F)% of the time you get called and have about 40% equity against [22+, AJ+] (some random range of hands that think they're flipping, should probably have KQs in there too). Anyhow if you're 40% to win then you're already in the +EV. Against [77+, AQ+] you have 32% equity or about 33% chance of adding 3000 to your stack (67% chance of losing 2000).

F*900+(1-F)(.33*3000-.67*2000)>0
900F+(1-F)(1000-1333)>0
900F+(1-F)(-333)>0
900F-333+333F>0
F>.27

So if you get folds 27% of the time this is +EV even against [77+ AQ+]. And there is a ton of trash in their ranges that they're probably not calling with. Lots of broadways, suited connectors, small pairs.

Even if we make the calling range [TT+ AQ+] we still have about 27% equity and only need them to fold a bit over 40% of the time. This sounds like a lot, but how tight must their range be for them to have [TT+ AQ+] 40% of the time?!

And in these calculations I have not discounted QQ+ at all. It's really hard for anyone to have those hands here.

While it's a small edge it's still an edge and you really should take it. I love the shove. Well-played Marvin.
lots of math in here

i love it thank you sir

my play in turbo rebuy is always like this be aggressive get all the dead money and win pot without showdown if they called and won the flip start registering the next game

this is my spot i can't wait for a better spot because of the turbo level. any small edge to my advantage i will take it

Last edited by marvinsytan; Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 01:08 PM..
 

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