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A,K out of position vs unknown opp.

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A,K out of position vs unknown opp. - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 08:44 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Happy New Year guys



I have no information on the opp as its been few hands since I opp joined the table. Normally I would lead out on the flop for 1/2 pot bet but I decided to check the flop to keep the pot small since I'm out of position. I think leading out on turn was probably a mistake and I should took same line as on the flop to keep the pot small. Given the way hand has played so far whats the best option on the river when the opp bets slightly more than half the pot?

Cheers
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:02 PM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Happy New Year deadeyz,

This is a really tough spot against an unknown.

Standard pre, and checking the flop disguises your strength. He checks behind, interesting. Half pot or so on the turn and he reraises. In my opinion, it is a a bet that indicates possibly a set but at 10NL more likely a weaker Ace, your check on the flop suggested a missed flop! call is good!

I am betting the river even though the spade and three is scary because I am still convinced A lower kicker, but a check is also fine. The bet sizing by the villain is interesting on the river, tempting to check reraise but calling/folding is probably the best option with Top pair, Top kicker. he could have A,2 or A,8, or maybe even sucked the flush.

Interesting spot, i will be interested to see other opinions.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:32 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Curious how he checks back the flop but raises the turn. That suggests the 2 helped him. I think an ace would have bet the flop, so A2 seems unlikely unless he was checking for pot control as well. 45 and 22 are definite possibilities, and so is a flush draw, which completes on the river. So if this guy is making sense with his line, it's a fold on the river because you beat nothing. I'd be highly inclined to call here just because I think the line looks fishy (you really expect us to believe you have 45?), so I can't fault a call. I wouldn't fault a fold, either.

I'd have bet the flop. You get tons of value there from worse aces.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 09:41 PM
(#4)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
On reflection, I tend to agree with Panicky about betting the flop as well, and I probably call the river bet although it is probably - EV.

Cheers,

TC
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:10 PM
(#5)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
[QUOTE=I'd have bet the flop. You get tons of value there from worse aces.[/QUOTE]

Thanks for your comments guys. More often than not I would definitely cbet this flop but against an unknown opp out of position my instinct was to check call the flop for pot control. But I think made the mistake of leading out on the turn, I should have stuck with the same line as on the flop and then evaluate the situation on the river. I think then the river decision would have been a lot easier.
 
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Wed Jan 04, 2012, 11:23 PM
(#6)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,487
(Head Trainer)
Hi deadeyz,

As played I personally would call this river every time. There are certainly hands in his range that are beating us, but he will have plenty of combos of worse aces too. Given that we checked the flop our hand strength is under repped. He may take this line with a hand like AJ, or even just with air simply because he thinks we have a hand like KK and won't call again on the river (and especially if he's an aggressive player but I understand we don't know that yet). Also if he happened to have A2 we've sucked out on that and it's also consistent with his line.

We have to call 1.50 into a pot of 4.25 so we have to be good a bit more than 25% of the time to make this call profitable. Given that our hand is under repped, we should be good way more often than this here, so I would call.

I also think that check/calling the river is the optimal line to maximize value as played. Once he raises the turn, he's got 1 of 4 things.... a weaker ace, a draw, a monster, or air.

If we bet out on the river, a weaker ace will call but will also sometimes bet for us anyway if we check. Draws mostly got there, so those will raise our bet, thus check-calling saves us in those spots. A monster is the same scenario as the draws that got there. And air will simply fold, but if we check to him will often fire a river barrel to try and get us to fold pocket pairs below the ace. So in other words, I think check/calling maximizes by getting value from his bluff range, and saving value vs his big hands (while mostly performing the same vs. Ax hands).

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 05:05 AM
(#7)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
hi deadeyz,

I agree that as played you should be calling this river spot most of the time.

I might also consider 4betting him on the turn since you checked oop on the flop, because he may be behind on this turn but he may have way more ways to improve then you do. He is betting about a tenth of his remaining stack here, a good price to lay himself to draw to flushes, given that this raise will get a lot of folds given your flop check and turn lead on that 2s.

Last edited by rule110; Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 05:10 AM..
 

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