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6,6 in position vs LAG

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6,6 in position vs LAG - Wed Jan 04, 2012, 10:37 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114


I think I completely misplayed this hand on the flop as even against opp top 10% range this hand has 65% equity. When opp checks the flop I felt the flop has completely missed his hand (we have history and he tends to lead out even with gutshot when he is the original raiser) but there is a possibility he could be slow playing. Was I right to lead out on the flop? I felt I had the best hand and even if don't have the best hand I have OESD to improve on turn/river. Was flat call the right option on the flop and whats the best option on the turn?

Cheers
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 02:45 AM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Hello.

Pre-Flop:

Versus a top 10% open raise range, your 66 has only about 42% equity pre flop when you called his raise.
Doing this is really only a good idea if you feel he will pay off enough in implied odds to return at least somewhere around $4.80 for your risk.
In order to have the sort of surety, you have to expect him to barrel twice (if you flat once on a set), or be willing to pay off a turn and river standard bet by you (if he checks the turn).

In short, to get half your stack paid off at least you have to feel this guy will put value in for you across multiple streets to really like seeing the flop with him.

The read info provided may well support that:

1) He is on a top 10% range here, so if you hit a set he will tend to have a decent value hand quite often.
2) You note he will lead at least once on any marginal chance he flops.

Your read info lacks thoughts about his likelihood of staying with a single pair hand when you do show aggressive action though, so this is not a definate.
As such, I think your thoughts about trying a set mine with 66 is somewhat marginal, but possibly fine if there is more likelihood he will continue firing.

Flop:

You do not hit your set on the flop, so you might be in real trouble here with pp 88+ in his 10% range. Yes, you do have 65% equity on this flop if his range could still be considered 10%.

The thing is, you cannot really say that any more.

A start hand range is not the same as the range you should put him on when he makes a post flop action.
You really need to be considering adjusting off your start range for him to take into account the strength a C/R normally expresses.

If he is on JJ+ about 75% of the time, and 2 overs to your 66 the rest of the time, he has aobut 51% equity versus your pair and oesd. while this might sound like a good chance to get 'em in and exercise FE, the truth is you are folding out all the over card hands (most likely) if you 3bet over his C/R.

That puts you in a reverse implied odds situation for a 3bet here, so it is not a very good idea in my opinion.

You provide no info on the likelihood of this guy C/R semi-bluffing, and as your read info states he is likely to lead as wide as on a gut shot, I would be REALLY suspect a C/R on this board texture of strength, not weakness. As a result of no reads, it is hard to put a real distribution of percentages together for a weighted range, but I do not think that against most players my 75%/25% ahead/behind hand range adjustments is really hugely far off.

For this reason, I think I might actually favor a FOLD of 66 over any sort of 3bet. I would, however, prefer a flat to peel the turn here over either of those choices, simply because if he DOES have a big pp he is betting again on the turn in all likelihood; that bet will set me up with a beneficial SPR to get the rest of my chips in on the turn or river if I spike the turn (depending on how you think he will re-act to a 2nd flat on a 4 straight card board).

Turn:

The villain now leads again for a solid near 2/3rds pot bet after you miss.
Lacking info on bluff frequency and 2 barrel bluff tries, this is the time to give up...BEFORE calling the $2.

At this point you lack the implied odds to take a 4 to 1 shot to the river and get paid off enough for your entire investment.

The point I am driving at here is that yes, you MIGHT have had 65% versus his PRE FLOP raise range on this flop, but versus his actions, and the adjustments to your ranging that entails, you probably have no where near that. You still have enough chance to peel 1 to try hitting, but when you don't it is time to give up before you lose more.

...at least that is my opinion.

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 02:55 AM..
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 12:12 PM
(#3)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Hi deadeyz,

Versus a LAG I prefer to check back the flop rather than bet for a few reasons.

First of all his range is pretty wide even UTG since he's loose-aggressive, and a lot of it will flop air on this board, but I would expect him to c-bet most of the time and here he fails do to so. There's 3 reasons he might check... He hit a monster and is slow playing it, he has showdown value but isn't very strong, or he has air and is deciding not to pursue it. In all these cases I think a check back is preferable. Vs. monsters we avoid getting check/raised and take a free card to draw out. Vs. showdown value hands we are behind many of them anyway and take a free card. And vs air we will induce the villain to bluff turns because when we check back the flop, a LAG will often bet the turn with air, they just can't help themselves.

In addition to all that, when we improve on the turn all our help cards put 4 to a straight on the board. If we've checked back the flop the villain will not immediately think these cards have helped us AND lags love to bluff at scary boards as well, so our improvement cards will tend to get a lot more turn and river action when we check the flop.

On the turn it's a pretty thin spot but as played I would call. I think our 10 outs are good most of the time here, and we're calling 2 in to a pot of 5.35 with an additional 6.25 effective behind. If he's got the strong hand he's trying to rep, I think we'll get the rest in a pretty high % of the time when we get there, so our implied odds are close to 5.5-1 which is good enough as is. Sometimes we won't get paid (obv he won't pay us 100% of the time when we improve) but I think those times are mitigated by the times he's making a move and gives up on the river because he was called twice (iow we will win some small % of the time with just 6's when he is bluffing and gives up... many opponents at micros, even laggy ones, are not capable of 3 barrel bluffing so this does happen sometimes).

Dave


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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 04:40 PM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Hi deadeyz,

Versus a LAG I prefer to check back the flop rather than bet for a few reasons.


Dave
OP states Villain has 10% pre flop raise range.

Also, while the money is THERE to possibly give implied odds to pay the $2, with "history" behind you vs the villain, can you really say he will stack off on 1 pair with a 4 straight board?

I would think that with 2 flats by you, one of those a C/R, the villain will have to put you on AT LEAST a set.

Of course with other reads, he may pay off, but on what you've given here I just don't see it. Obviously, the statements Dave made, and the contradicting statements I make about the implied odds likelihood here are OPINIONS. The reason you can easily have conflicting opinions in this spot is how minimal info is perceived.

I perceive "history" to mean this guy probably knows enough about you to realize you would not continue past the turn on a hand that cannot beat 1 pair if a 4 straight comes; you either stayed to HIT that straight, or you had a set all along. In either case he isn't paying you.

I do however, agree totally with the check back on the flop. I like the info Dave put up, and it was in my thoughts that a bet there was really un-necessary versus someone who will suddenly CHECK what is at least a 6 overs draw, when you say he will tend to lead as weakly as a gut shot "hit".


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 05, 2012 at 04:55 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 05, 2012, 08:28 PM
(#5)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
OP states Villain has 10% pre flop raise range.
Check again... title is 66 vs. LAG, in the body of the post OP states his equity vs. "even the villains top 10% of hands", not that villain has a 10% preflop opening range. It's a bit confusing as stated, but I think as a LAG here villains opening range is probably around 2.5-3x as wide as that.


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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 08:08 AM
(#6)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
Check again... title is 66 vs. LAG, in the body of the post OP states his equity vs. "even the villains top 10% of hands", not that villain has a 10% preflop opening range. It's a bit confusing as stated, but I think as a LAG here villains opening range is probably around 2.5-3x as wide as that.
I cannot disagree then...

The approach I took was from reading the post; I saw 10% range, and thought that was the range the Hero had working going into the flop.


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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 10:51 AM
(#7)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I would tend to agree w/ dave as to the interpretation of the o p. Never saw a LAG w/ a 10% open. Thats more LAP than LAG. but it would be nice for the op to verify this, as alot of folks call any loose player a LAG, reguardless of aggression. Dead?? Care to chime in?
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 01:21 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Yeah very true, a big change in opening range is going to change things for sure, sometimes dramatically.


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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 01:29 PM
(#9)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
First of all thank you very much Dave & Dave for your analysis of the hand which is very insightful and I am certain the points raised by yourselves will be immensely beneficial in similar situations in the future.

Sorry about the confusion maybe I didn't explain the situation very clearly. Certainly pre-flop I am not putting the opp on top 10% range, if that was the case I would not bet the flop and would have tried to get the free card cheaply in position. I would have definitely given up my hand to CR on the flop.

The point I was trying to make was that on this particular flop our hand has 65% equity even against top 10% hand range hence I continued with the hand to the next street and also the way the action has been I felt that I had the best hand and the CR by the opp was to push me off the hand.

Now this leads me to another question, if you believe that the CR by the opp is total air, would you play the hand differently and how?

Sorry about the confusion and I hope this clarifies the situation. I know I have a lot to learn about poker so maybe I didn't explain the situation very well.

Cheers
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 02:39 PM
(#10)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Thanks for the clarification.

That makes me fall much more into line with The Langolier's post (although we really only differed as to river play). ANY hand situation involving implied odds pay off absolutely hinges on the read you have on the opponent. The fact I took your info here in a way that you had not intended totally and completely effects every other decision after that...

As for your question in your re-post: if you believe that the CR by the opp is total air, would you play the hand differently and how?

A simple answer to this would be "raise whatever amount you think he might call on with less."

The problem with that is your situation here is one that is a severe reverse implied odds situation except against very specific opponents. Reverse implied odds situations are simply those where a bet or a raise will tend to cause worse hands than yours to fold, and cause better hands to call or raise. There may not BE an amount you can raise that he will call with less. Consider...

Your statement implies that you have 100%, or near 100% surety, that the opp is on air here. How often is that REALLY the case though?

I mean even wildly aggro bluffers are entitled to wake up with a real hand on occasion, and raising into a hand like AA/KK here will result in you re-opening the betting, and THAT may cause him to bet so much you really cannot do anything but but fold without excessive risk.

You cannot prevent him from re-raising by moving all in yourself, because an all in by you will be extremely value owning to you, and if called you are almost certain to need a straight to win the pot.

So in order to make a ANY raise after the villain C/R's you appropriate, you need a very SPECIFIC opponent. The info you must have on this opp is:

1) He will C/R on a bluff or semi bluff a good percent of the time
2) He will not be able to 4bet enough to get you off your hand on a bluff.
3) He will at least CALL a 3bet over his C/R on a 3 straight board a reasonable amount of the time.

If all these factors are not present in your information on the opp, it would be far better for you to simply FLAT the C/R to represent that you are on a naked 6 oesd draw, and allow him to continue to feed value in for you.

I know Mike Caro puts out info on playing against Aggressive players which says in effect, you do not want to bet or raise your marginal value hands very often. This is simply a function of the fact that by doing so you will either face large raises you cannot call, or you will cause an aggro bluffer to fold his hands that do not have good equity against your marginal holding.

So versus aggro players, especially those which tend to bluff a lot, you should really not be all that ready to bet or raise on any hand which you MIGHT feel you have to release if you face a big re-raise. That is probably the situation you are facing here after the opp C/R's you.

- The stacks are really too deep to let you WANT to stack off on a call if he jams over a raise.

- You cannot really move in yourself first, because while you might THINK he is on air, you will fold that out quite often and only get called by things you have only about 35% equity against.

So if a raise is out, and if a fold would be "meh" because you DO believe he is on air a good part of the time (and you have draw outs if he isn't on air), then your only remaining choice is a call.

(As a side note: in this spot if you held JUST 66 without the straight draw (same relative strength, with 66 being 2nd pair to the board), I'd not even consider a call of the C/R worthwhile, even if he bluffs a lot. You'd simply have too little chance to improve to make the risk of a call worthwhile very often, and too much a chance the C/R is done with true strength.)


Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 03:23 PM..
 

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