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What are the odds?

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What are the odds? - Fri Jan 06, 2012, 01:50 AM
(#1)
II CoTe ll's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 417
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Something I haven't seen in 10 years of playing. What are the odds of this happening?

 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 02:27 AM
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SkinyButPhat's Avatar
Since: Aug 2011
Posts: 258
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probably happens a lot, just 1 of those 3 typically would fold, right? I mean 92 guy has to know he's beat, doesn't he?? With two cards to come, you have to expect that the chances another heart hits is fairly high. if anyone holds another heart higher than 9, he's toast on turn or river IF that had happened. I say he was strictly shoving , but not all in, to see if he could catch the straight flush with the TEN if it hit. He went for style. If he thought he had it, why not shove all in against the bigger stack first.

I am happy to say, even as one of the worst players on PSO, I would have at least saw the turn, with a low bet, and if the 2nd guy raised all in, might have folded ........which I am sure someone will point out is absolutely the wrong thing to do, in which case, I just validated my own point about myself !!!!! huzzah !! Freerollin for life !!!!

Peace

Deaner
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 03:12 AM
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JDean's Avatar
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Posts: 3,145
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Hello,

The maximum number of flush v. flush scenarioes in a hold em hand is 5. As such the 3 you see here, while rare, is not really near the maximum in rarity.

The implication that knowing the odds of this scenario happening, thus being able to USE that info to help your decisions, is not really valid in my opinion. Consider...

When you make your decision, you have incomplete information.
When anyone must make a decision here on the flop with a flush, any of the shown down hands could be beaten by a straight flush...

By the turn, any of them could be beaten by quads or a boat.

But the river, it is QUITE LIKELY that any flush is no good here a good % of the time.

As such, at any of those points, provided all the money had not gone in (or a large part of it hadn't) it is quite likely a flush could find a FOLD, and you'd never see that there were 3 flushes on this board at all.

So while thinking about things like this is a "fun" aspect of poker, I really do not think it has much to do with your overall decision process.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Fri Jan 06, 2012 at 03:19 AM..
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 11:00 AM
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RockerguyAA's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,089
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I don't know what the odds are, but it happened to me once. I was playing $1/2 live at Delaware park for the first time and lost a medium sized pot in similar situation. I held 64 suited diamonds on button. I see a flop with BB and early position player. Two diamonds on flop. Turn is a third diamond. By the river we all showed flushes, my 64, BB's 97, and early positions J8. Hand played out super wierd.

That said I think I played a couple hundred thousand hands online over the years and I don't recall 3 flushes hitting(where each players 2 cards are suited) ever before.
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 12:04 PM
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II CoTe ll's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 417
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RockerguyAA View Post
I don't know what the odds are, but it happened to me once. I was playing $1/2 live at Delaware park for the first time and lost a medium sized pot in similar situation. I held 64 suited diamonds on button. I see a flop with BB and early position player. Two diamonds on flop. Turn is a third diamond. By the river we all showed flushes, my 64, BB's 97, and early positions J8. Hand played out super wierd.

That said I think I played a couple hundred thousand hands online over the years and I don't recall 3 flushes hitting(where each players 2 cards are suited) ever before.
I have seen flush v flush v flush many times but I have never seen 3 players flopping flushes.
 
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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 06:44 PM
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*** moved to more appropriate forum since odds question JWK24***


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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 06:49 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
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there are 3 hearts on the flop

there odds of getting a heart for the first opp's card is 10 in 49 (10 hearts left and 49 cards left) and the second card is 9/48

for the next opp it's 8/47 and 7/46

for the next opp it's 6/45 and 5/44

multiply all of these together gives these three opps a 1 in 66589.6 chance of this scenario happening.


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Fri Jan 06, 2012, 09:27 PM
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TrustySam's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 8,291
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There was a hand in HA during the summertime where three people flopped a flush ... but I've never actually been at a table myself and seen 3 people flop a flush I don't think.

There was a time where 3 people all had flushes at one of my tables, and at the time it must have made some sort of impact on me, because I saved it to my folder. Although, now that I know the ending, it doesn't seem nearly as shocking. Maybe people might find it interesting though ... enjoy!

 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 05:35 AM
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Parrian423's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 1
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Ok , don't understand this hand... Why the heck does a flush with A high getting main stack over a straight flush?? Isn't straight flush always better than just a flush no mater that the high card is A ?

Regards
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 07:42 AM
(#10)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Look again str8flush started the hand w/ 150 chips, what he won WAS the main pot. The ace high got the side pot...
 

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