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I don't like AQ

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I don't like AQ - Sat Jan 07, 2012, 05:50 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hand 25, 20/27 left



Mad4Mouse has 790 left, a good 26BBs. Which I think makes it a nice restealing stack. So I get the AQ off. in the CutOff. Folded to me so I open for a standard 3x. When doing this I know there's a chance he's gonna shove on me, and I had fully intended to call that shove. He could be shoving with a small pair, or a weaker ace. So I'm way ahead or racing. Unless of course he shows the AK.

I have no doubt my open-bet was good, but what about the plan to call a potential shove?


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keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 06:42 AM
(#2)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Do you have a specific read on him that he likes to shove-resteal light? If not, I don't really see the point of calling a shove even if he has a small pair. We have 34BBs and can wait for a lot better spots to accumulate chips than a coin flip, or even a 60/40.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 11:12 AM
(#3)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
even if i don't have a read on him. i will never call his shove.

i have AQ in the CO. i got 3 opp left to act. one opp have almost the same stack as mine one opp is almost 40% of my stack and the last opp can bust me out.

plan ahead. what's your plan if your plan is your going to call any reraise then you should be the one who is shoving in the first place.

in this case you made the standard raise and this is the line i would take but if someone reraise me i fold instantly.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 11:39 AM
(#4)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
I like the raise. But my plan if he shoves is to fold like the wind. You only have A high here and plenty of chips to find another spot.

Grade b


I am always ready to learn although I do not always like being taught. ~Winston Churchill

13 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 01:20 PM
(#5)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
Mad4Mouse has 790 left, a good 26BBs. Which I think makes it a nice restealing stack.
I think that 26bb is not quite a resteal stack. ~0-12bb is a shove stack, and ~12-18bb is a resteal stack imo. So opening AQ with the intent to call a 26bb reshove is along the right line of thought, but I think it's a little on the -EV side, unless as someone said before me, the guy is 3betting a lot.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 02:06 PM
(#6)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight, thanks for posting to the Hand Analysis forum.

This is an interesting spot. I like the call. You do say you raise fully expecting MadMouse to shove right? After all this really is his only move here out of position. Anyhow, do you have any idea of the range he's shoving here? Why do you expect him to shove? Did he just lose a really big pot?

Let's look at some numbers. You need to call 640 to win 990. That's 1.55 to 1 odds, or you need about 40% equity. How tight does his range need to be for you to not be good here?

Well, if he's pushing 10% [88+,A8s+,AQo+,K9s+,KQo,QTs+,JTs,T9s] you're at 45% wins (+5% chops), so it's gotta be significantly tighter than that.

Against [TT+,AQ+] you're obviously in terrible shape. Like 26% equity.

Against the donkey "I have a pair range" of [22+ AT+] you have 42% wins (+5% chops). Throw in the good broadways like KQs,KQo,QTs+,JTs and you jump to 46% wins (+ 4% chops)

Against a range like [77+,ATs+,AJ+] you're at about 38% wins with 6.6% chops which should be about good enough. His range wins 49%.

EV=%win*win-%lose*lose+%chop*chop, where you're chopping 350. (This is the same as winning half the chop 13.2% of the time)
EV=.38(990)-.49(640)+.066(350)
EV=86

So clearly against that range you're plenty +EV to go with it.

If we take out ATs and AJo you win 32% and chop 7.25% which is right about at the number you need. He wins 53.5% but your EV is:

EV=.32(990)-.535(640)+.0725(350)
EV=-.225

So if he's that tight calling is 1/4 of a chip -EV. This is pretty close to EV neutral.

Since I think he's shoving wider here than [77+,AJs+,AQo+] most of the time, I think this is a good call. Nice hand.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 02:15 PM
(#7)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by oriholic View Post
You do say you raise fully expecting MadMouse to shove right?
He did not say this. He said there was a chance he would shove, and he fully intended to call.

Any info on possible reshoving ranges would certainly help.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:15 PM
(#8)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
I don't fully understand your reasoning, Oriholic. Mathematically, yes, this is a +EV call, but aren't the chips you lose worth more than the chips you win in tournaments? If he wins the hand, he'd have a stack of about 2400 chips, which is nice, but I don't think that edge is worth the risk. If he loses, he'd be crippled and have to double up twice. I'd definitely make the call if it was later in the tournament, but a slightly larger stack this early isn't worth very much, at least not enough. The risk/reward ratio does not justify a call in my opinion.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:26 PM
(#9)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
He wouldn't quite be crippled; he'd still have 20bb, which is definitely workable.

The chips you lose are worth more, but that's more true in late stages of tournaments because the pay jumps are close, not earlier. ICM would change a breakeven cEV call into a fold here, but it's hard to say without any info what range we're getting shoved on us.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:28 PM
(#10)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
If I lose, I have 900 left, which is about 20BB. I wouldn't call that crippled, but a playable stack, albeit on the short side. I've worked my way up from less than 20BB plenty of times, so I have faith that it's not a crippling blow. That did factor into my decision.

As for him shoving, He was getting short, and my experience is that people with stacksizes like his in these SnGs tend to shove pretty light. Hance my intent to call if he did shove, and I thought th chance he would ship it to be over the 50%. I'd anticipate him doing that with small pairs, Ax, but also Kx or a suited conmnector.

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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:38 PM
(#11)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
He wouldn't quite be crippled; he'd still have 20bb, which is definitely workable.

The chips you lose are worth more, but that's more true in late stages of tournaments because the pay jumps are close, not earlier. ICM would change a breakeven cEV call into a fold here, but it's hard to say without any info what range we're getting shoved on us.
Yeah, crippled was probably the wrong word.

I'm just asking because I want to make sure I understand the theory behind a call correctly. It seems a little spewy to me although I see why a call can be tempting. I'd still fold and wait for a better spot though even if a call here would be slightly +EV, but then again, you guys probably know this better than me.
 
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It may be later than you think - Sun Jan 08, 2012, 03:06 AM
(#12)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
Hand 25, 20/27 left
Mad4Mouse has 790 left, a good 26BBs. Which I think makes it a nice restealing stack. So I get the AQ off. in the CutOff. Folded to me so I open for a standard 3x. When doing this I know there's a chance he's gonna shove on me, and I had fully intended to call that shove. He could be shoving with a small pair, or a weaker ace. So I'm way ahead or racing. Unless of course he shows the AK.

I have no doubt my open-bet was good, but what about the plan to call a potential shove?
I assume the following: This is a 27 man low buy-in game. The average stack size is just over 2000 chips. The blinds will double soon (25 hands played - on level 3). The SB is a semi-loose player with some poker skills. No read on the BB; you didn’t have a plan as to your reaction to any potential play by him. My assumption of the SB’s skill level, and type, is because you think he knows you might be open/raising light, and that he knows he has a good resteal stack. His stack (16BB, not 26BB as stated) ‘is’ a good resteal stack. His range, that you feel he will shove is, any Ax; any Kx; any pair; ?any? suited connector; and might as well throw in any broadway; would be about top 40% (not 50%), against which you have 60% equity.

At the moment, you’re just under average stack. The blinds are doubling within the next orbit. If you don’t chip-up, you’ll be nearing the push/fold range. You made a ?‘standard’? raise of 3X; the standard raise now a days can be lower than 3X at this level LP, but then again, that would also depend on table dynamics. Actually, you don’t always have to be ‘standard’. It’s a good idea to polarize your hands and use the same raise size at a given level and position (which I assume you are doing – good), but there are times you want to set-up a particular SPR by manipulating your bet size. In this case, you are willing to go to the felt with a shove from the SB; therefore, you should increase your bet to 250 (5X)! 250 sets-up a SPR of around 3 (if he called), now you are willing to get it in if you hit the flop. As an added bonus, 250 increases your fold equity, and confuses your opponents. If both blinds had 16BB stacks, that would be an option. As it is, you have a workable stack (and so does the BB), so make sure you can still maneuver against the BB. If the BB is the only caller, you’ll be the PFR and IP - good time for a C-bet on most flops!

As the hand was played, the SB shoved. Your plan was to call, if the SB shoved (and BB folded – I assume that was an unwritten part of your plan). Your plan is missing one very important factor! What is your image? Do the villains even care about your image, or are they just playing their cards? If they read you as only betting 3X with a premium hand, then your plan is faulty. If I’m in the SB, and a very NITty player, or a player that only raises 4% of the time, opens 3X, I’m gone unless I have a premium hand.

If you had any doubts about calling a shove, make it an easier decision, and just PFR 2X. It may be enough to get the BTN to fold, so that you can gain positional advantage on the flop, and now you can also get away from the hand if anyone shoves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
I don't fully understand your reasoning, Oriholic. Mathematically, yes, this is a +EV call, but aren't the chips you lose worth more than the chips you win in tournaments? If he wins the hand, he'd have a stack of about 2400 chips, which is nice, but I don't think that edge is worth the risk. If he loses, he'd be crippled and have to double up twice. I'd definitely make the call if it was later in the tournament, but a slightly larger stack this early isn't worth very much, at least not enough. The risk/reward ratio does not justify a call in my opinion.
TeV (Tournament EV) 'is' different from EV - I'm a proponent of not risking early coin flips - BUT -
As the hand was played and assuming there is no image read on you: You have to put in 640 to win 990; you need 40% equity to make this a +EV play; you have 60% equity against the villains perceived hand range. If you lose you will have an 18BB stack (soon to be a 9BB stack – when blinds go up). Some may feel it’s to early to risk your chips, but it’s really later than you think, and the risk/reward is too great to pass up. If you win, you'll have 51BB's, and be in a much better position to take down the tourney. If you lose, you can still more than recover the loss with a double-up. There are times in a tourney when you need to gamble. I feel this is a pivotal point in the tourney for us, given our not so overwhelming stack size, impending blind rate going up, the dead money in the pot, and the shoving range of the villain - As the hand played out, I like the call!
.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 04:51 AM
(#13)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
TeV (Tournament EV) 'is' different from EV - I'm a proponent of not risking early coin flips - BUT -
As the hand was played and assuming there is no image read on you: You have to put in 640 to win 990; you need 40% equity to make this a +EV play; you have 60% equity against the villains perceived hand range. If you lose you will have an 18BB stack (soon to be a 9BB stack – when blinds go up). Some may feel it’s to early to risk your chips, but it’s really later than you think, and the risk/reward is too great to pass up. If you win, you'll have 51BB's, and be in a much better position to take down the tourney. If you lose, you can still more than recover the loss with a double-up. There are times in a tourney when you need to gamble. I feel this is a pivotal point in the tourney for us, given our not so overwhelming stack size, impending blind rate going up, the dead money in the pot, and the shoving range of the villain - As the hand played out, I like the call!
.
That makes a lot of sense. Thanks for the explanation!
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 04:55 AM
(#14)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
We most certainly do not have 60% equity. I believe that would be the villain's perceived equity.
 
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AQ Equity vs Posted Range - Sun Jan 08, 2012, 05:46 AM
(#15)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
We most certainly do not have 60% equity. I believe that would be the villain's perceived equity.
I just 'poker stoved' (again), AQ against 'range in post' (Ax;Kx; any pair; *any suited connector - *I limited this to *JTs+, otherwise hero has a higher equity). Hero has a 61% equity against that range.
.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 08:33 AM
(#16)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
like the call too, with your hand and his chip stack and your chip stack and the blind levels I instacall.

Last edited by rule110; Sun Jan 08, 2012 at 08:39 AM..
 

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