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tilt-shove or not?

tilt-shove or not? - Sat Jan 07, 2012, 06:01 AM
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340

rigatoni called an open-shove from TRASURTIS the hand before with A7 and lost to KK. The very next hand I'm in the BB with AJoff, certainly playable. But rigatoni open-shoves from early position. Now I tend to be very weary of people who open-shove after losing a big pot. I tend to think they're tilting a bit and just will do whatever to win a pot. Yet I call these shoves very rarely, and in this case, not even with the AJ. Or should I have called it?

keeping track of my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
Sat Jan 07, 2012, 11:26 AM
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
even when he's tilting he can still bust you with any 2 insta muck and wait for a better spot

good fold
Sat Jan 07, 2012, 12:15 PM
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
You have about 65% equity at best if he has two unpaired undercards. Not enough to risk your tournament life this early. I'd still fold even if he had 72o and I knew it.
Sat Jan 07, 2012, 06:40 PM
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,814
Hi Ov3rsight,

Good odds question in this hand.

Preflop, a player that may be on tilt shoves almost 15BB preflop. To call this, it will take 1360 more chips into a pot that will be 2970 (45.8%).
If the opp is literally playing ATC, then AJ off has 63% equity. However, the opp could be shoving a much smaller range here.
Let's take for example a range of any pair, any broadway or any A (since the opp had just played A7). That lowers AJ's equity to 57%.
If the opp's range is a top 12% hand (suited broadway connectors, suited aces, AQ+ or pairs), then AJ's equity is down to 45.2%.... which means that AJ is slightly behind.

If I were playing this hand, I'm folding it preflop. AJ may be ahead, but with a 17 BB stack early, I would wait until I could find a better situation to get my chips into (knowing that I had the best hand, especially in position, or be the first to shove).

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables

John (JWK24)


6 Time Bracelet Winner


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