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Getting lucky

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Getting lucky - Sat Jan 07, 2012, 11:01 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
7 handed in a 27man SnG, I'm 5th in chips and get dealt pocket jacks. A raise from UTG (could mean anything at this point, I felt a lot of stealing going on), so I 3-bet and get called. Flop has one overcard. What are the odds he has that one overcard. Well, in my case 100%. I push, he calls, I hit the runner-runner flush to survive and double up.



So the question: Was that shove on the flop correct?

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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 11:22 AM
(#2)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Pre - it's a good 3bet to the weak min raise

flop - 2475 in the pot if your going to cbet you need to put 1400 chips that will be committing you to the pot so i love the shove here. i will definitely gamble here if he have it then he have it.

nice hand sir
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 02:55 PM
(#3)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

Probably should have just 3-bet shoved preflop with JJ on 20 BBs out of position. There's almost 900 in the pot which would be a nice addition to your stack if you can win it risk free. It may also be more likely to get called by hands like 66 which you're wayyyy ahead of.

As played, you have to go with it on pretty much any flop, once you put that much of your stack in pre. And the backdoor flush draw is added equity. If you think he may try to bluff if you look weak you can check/get it in against ace high and even smaller pairs and air. That actually might be better than shoving, but you definitely can't be folding here.


4 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 02:58 PM
(#4)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hello Ov3rsight thanks for the post.

Okay we have JJ a premium hand and we have an UTG raise. You tell us you felt he likely could be stealing and in the end your gut feeling was right.
What I would like to point out is that we are now into ante's and many players fail to understand that this needs to be calculated in when determining our stack and what pot we are playing for.
You have 13 effective big blinds when factoring in ante's with a thief utg! I beleive your 3 bet is warranted but you can never fold once you make this play! You have committed too much of your stack to fold now and so if you are ever folding then you should opt to fold pre.
Now since we know we are never folding then I would simply shove all in. Many times I see players chicken out when an over card hits and can't pull the trigger on the shove post flop or they feel they still have enough chips if they fold. This is burning chips and should be avoided.
Your shove with an overcard shows you understand you have to go so good on ya! We are never looking to be results oriented so lets win a flip and play for the win. If not fire up another one!

In summary, you have a good read on your opponent and you have complete understanding that we are never folding so get them all in and let him make the decision.

Giddy Up!

Last edited by 19honu62; Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 03:02 PM..
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:03 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,802
(Super-Moderator)
BronzeStar
Hi Ov3rsight!

Interesting spot. 5th stack with 7 left on the bubble of a 27-man where 5 get ITM. When I'm in that situaiton, the two things that I am thinking in this situation are to get ITM and to gain chips for a run at the top three and winning the tournament.

Preflop: JJ in the big blind UTG makes a min raise and it's folded around to the BB. A read on the opp would definitely help here. Was the opp min-raising much? Were they playing many hands? Did they raise much from UTG?
Without a read on the opp, I would just call here and re-evaluate after the flop. Min raises are not often a std opening play for most opponents, so it could signal that they have a monster hand (where a read would help greatly). Calling here lets me see the flop and is good for pot control since I'm out of position and preserving my stack to get ITM is in the back of my mind.

Flop: 2 7 Q with two spades By calling preflop, I now have enough chips left that I can make a lead bet here, but I'm not committed to the pot if the opp shoves over me. The opp could have AQ, KQ, QJ and be ahead. My lead bet here would be about 2/3's pot, so that if the opp had spades, it's a -EV call for them. If they call, then I re-evaluate on the turn. If they shove, they most likely have a Q, KK or AA and I'll fold and preserve my stack to try and get ITM.

As played, a continuation bet would put you past the commitment point for the hand, so if a bet is made, I like the shove, to maximize the fold equity in the hand. However, any hand that calls is most likely going to be ahead, because it will most likely be Qx, KK or AA.
If it were me, I'm checking the flop here and folding to a bet from the opp. I'd still have 3155 chips if I folded, which is only about 1k chips away from 5th place and at only 200 for the BB, is a very playable stack.
I normally try to be cautious in these spots when I'm out of position, as I want to do everything that I can to get ITM, but also to try to gain chips when I know when I'm ahead (here, the opp could have a better hand).

It's always nice to get lucky on the river though, and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:17 PM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
any reasonable 3bet size by you (if called) is going yo give you an SPR of 1. whatever ( negligible ) and your committed on 21 bigs
so much better to make your opponent decide if he is too, than letting him put you to that decision (which should already be made before you 3bet on 20 bigs)
so pretty straightforward ship it in and cross your fingers kinda situation post flop being your oop

so that being said, if your committing your committing. 3bet ship it in pre and be done with it. that way your putting max pressure on, from the get go.
nice suckout
 

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