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Pot Odds

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Pot Odds - Sat Jan 07, 2012, 02:48 PM
(#1)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Ok, sorry if this is the wrong section, haven't posted much since the make over.

Anywhoo,

Right off the bat I'll say this. I'm not great at math (and it will probably show VERY WELL here.) Because of, and in addition to this, my self education on pot odds is going slowly.

I faced a situation today where it was criticle, and I'm happy with the end resault, BUT, in retrospect I think I may have called where I should have folded. Have a look and let me know the calculations I SHOULD have been making.

Thanks

L8r,
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#2)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
***Moved****

Hey Bandshooter,

Putting this into the Hand Analysis section. Much better change of responses there Bandshooter.

Cheers,

Tony
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:10 PM
(#3)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Preflop, no math needed I suppose

on the flop: you have a draw to the nuts, but you need to hit 1 of your 9 remaining clubs. So you have a chance of 9/47 of hitting it on the turn, and if you miss, another 9/46 on the river. You'd need to multiply these chances, but that takes a lot of math. You can also factor in that maybe hitting the ace will win you the pot, giving you 12 outs twice. that means two chances on 12 outs, or 24 outs total. 24/47 is about 50%, or 1 in 2. So about half the time you're gonna hit your card on the turn or river.

As a bit of making the math easier: rule of thumb is to count your outs, and multiply by 2 for every street, so on the flop you have about 36% (9 outs *2 * 2) chance to hit your flush on the flop or the river. If you think an ace will win it for you as well, that's 3 more outs, making 48% (12 outs * 2 * 2).

The opponent bets 262 into 401, meaning you have to call 262 to win 663, giving you pot odds of 262/663 = about 40% (about 2.5 to 1) In that case, the odds say you should be making the call since your chance to hit (1 in 2) is better than what you need to put into the pot (2.5 to 1)

The turn blanks. So now you're down to 12 outs once, or about 12/47 = 25% (or 12 outs * 2 = 24%) to hit a river that will make your hand (still assuming the ace will work for you as well). After his raise, you need to call 1400 to win 3540, or 2.5 to 1, or 40%. Since your chances of hitting are now considerably lower, you should fold the turn - in the long run it's not profitable to chase the flush or ace, especially since one of your outs (A of spades) could be dirty now.

As you can see the percentages aren't spot on, but hey - we're playing poker, not studying for a math test. The rough calculations I've shown here will do the trick just fine.

Hope that clears it up a bit?


BTW:he played badly - he should have shoved on the turn instead of leaving himself with 1 big blind. Same logic says you should have put him all in when he bet 61 on the river leaving him with 1 chip.

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keeping up with my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com

Last edited by Ov3rsight; Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 03:18 PM..
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:25 PM
(#4)
topthecat's Avatar
Since: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,962
Ok Band,

It is a real spot here but at this point I would be of the opinion that you are very close to commitment point once you raise the turn. For me it is a call, but whether that is the right or wrong play from a pot odds perspective, maybe someone else can say

I think it is a hand where various lines can be taken.

Edit: And an excellent response from Ov3rsight, this could be a very interesting discussion.

Cheers,

TC

Last edited by topthecat; Sat Jan 07, 2012 at 03:29 PM..
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 03:45 PM
(#5)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Ah, hadn't considered possible pot committing yourself with the turn bet. As it stands, about 1/3 of his stack is in there when he bets the turn, leaving 60 BB behind. I wouldn't call myself pot committed then. But that's me. I rarely call myself pot committed...

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keeping up with my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 04:09 PM
(#6)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Thanks guys.

Going into this I should point out, that for calculating odds, I'm aware of the quicky method of multiplaying your outs by 4 for the turn and 2 for the River.

So I knew I was good to call the turn.

Where I got stuck was calculating the amount I could call once he reraised me. I'd be embarrassing myself if I told you what I had calculated....let's just call it WRONG.

So here's what I got.

On the river now, I have 12 outs (9 remaining clubs, plus the 3 A's.)

12 x 2 =24, or, because I'm an idiot, approx 25%.

So odds wise, I should have called no more than $885 or so (3540/4) is that right? as far as odds go.

Now the commitment issue is another matter entirely. From what I understand you should pretty much consider yourself pot commited if you're in for more that 1/3 of your stack, which is almost EXACTLY where I was after my bet on the River.

So, well, not a completely stupid play I guess, but I will have to work on my math. Just glad it worked out.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 04:18 PM
(#7)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
So I knew I was good to call the turn.

You mean the flop

On the river now, I have 12 outs (9 remaining clubs, plus the 3 A's.)

On the river one doesn't have outs anymore This is the turn...

And yes - you have about 25% to win the hand (although personally I'd opt to go with 22% because of the firty ace of spades), So your call has to be less than 22% of the poit, so less than 780 (or 885 if you do count the ace of spades as an out).

As far as pot committed goes, I don't consider myself pot committed with 1/3 of my stack in and 60BB behind. Now if I had 10 BB behind, then yes, but not when I'll be this deep if I fold. But this is where I may have a very different opinion than others. I don't feel pot committed at all if I have a playable stack left if I fold (so anything over 20BB)

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keeping up with my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 04:31 PM
(#8)
BandShooter's Avatar
Since: Jun 2011
Posts: 111
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ov3rsight View Post
So I knew I was good to call the turn.

You mean the flop

On the river now, I have 12 outs (9 remaining clubs, plus the 3 A's.)

On the river one doesn't have outs anymore This is the turn...
Sorry, should have said "FOR" the turn and "For" the river, meaning the card itself. But yea, I get it. And thanks again.
 
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Sat Jan 07, 2012, 08:18 PM
(#9)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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BandShooter,

Good question that I'm sure many members have. Thanks for posting it

Preflop: UTG+1 makes what is probably their opening raise here. Calling with A 10 suited, a hand that has potential is the play that I'd make here too. The SB calls too, so position is shifted to us.

Flop: K 6 7 with two clubs. The original raiser bets 262 chips. With A 10 clubs here, I have 9 outs to a club flush and possibly another 3 outs if an A gives the best hand. Either 9 or 12 outs. I like to count only 9 here, as an A could be compromised, as AK is well within the opps' ranges.
To see if the odds are correct to call here, I would need to put 262 chips into a pot that will be 925 if I call (28.3%). On the flop, an easy estimate for equity is 4% equity for each out. With 9 outs, 9*4%=36%. 36% equity is higher than 28.3% of the pot... so it is a +EV call in this situation.

Turn: 3 of spades, a total miss. The opp now decides for the first time in the hand to check. I would be checking behind here and peeling off the river card for free. Most likely the opp is ahead of us and in this situation, I don't want to make a value bet when I most likely don't have the best hand. But, I still have 9 outs and the easy equity calculation for the turn is 2% per out. 9 outs gives 18% equity.
The way the hand played out, a value bet of 610 gets raised to 2005. To call this bet, I would need to put in an extra 1395 chips into a pot that will be 4935 (28.3%).
With having 18% equity vs 28.3% more into the pot to call, I fold here, because the hand is -10.3%EV. Even if I add in the three aces here as good outs, that only adds another 6% equity to my hand. This still makes it a -EV call on the turn and I'm going to fold here.

As the hand plays out, for another 62 chips into basically 5k pot, I'm calling that bet even if I miss the river. With an A on the river, it's even easier. There are too many chips in the pot to risk even a small % of the time that I would fold the best hand here.

Another option in this hand would be to raise the flop, espeically if I thought that an A would give me the best hand. That would make 12 outs or 48% equity. By raising here, it also could get me the lead in the hand on the turn, so if the opp checks and I didn't hit the turn, I could peel the river card for free by checking.

Good luck at the tables

John (JWK24)


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