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Setmining

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Setmining - Sun Jan 08, 2012, 04:56 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
$1.50 27man SnG, hand 78, 5 min before the antes start kicking in, I'm 3rd of 14 left. Overall, the people left are playing very tight or just good - usually we hit the final table by this time and 7 or 8 left when the 3min break begins. This one, we were 11 left at the break.



I have a 25 BB stack, next l;evel where the blinds go up starts in 15 min, and pocket pair in the BB. The button opens for 3x. Now for setmining the odds are against me. To make the 400 call, he should have around 6000 for me to win, but he's a short stack for only 9BB behind. To me, that means he should have just soved preflop. Especially when you see he's playing an AJs. You wonder if this short, you want a call with that. Factoring in that if I do hit, we'll be one closer to the final table, I decide to call anyway.

Good call or bad call? With baby pairs like this, I tend to call, not raise, especially out of position. How about that strategy?

Of course it works out find when he flops his ace and I hit my set, which is good. But was it good poker

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keeping up with my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 05:09 AM
(#2)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Cool that you're watching the stage of the tourney and know when the blinds go up. I don't do that, but it's definitely useful info to have.

Like you said, setmining is bad, so calling can be ruled out as an option here. 44 generally flops badly when it doesn't hit a set, so you end up check/folding it a ton. That leaves raising or folding here, and by default, folding is fine if you're not comfortable in this spot. Raising is only great if you know you have fold equity, because if you don't, you're generally flipping or you're crushed and it's not worth playing. When somebody opens on the BU for a quarter of their stack, I take it as a message that they're intentionally pot-committing themself, so I'm less inclined to reshove hands that need fold equity to be profitable. I think you can fold here and find a better spot.

With a triple stack close to the bubble, you should be inclined to preserve your lead. There's no need to risk half your stack now in a marginal spot when you can use it to pressure people later.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Sun Jan 08, 2012 at 05:11 AM..
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 05:19 AM
(#3)
Austerror's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 85
I don't mind this too much, he's getting ~ 3.25-1 odds to call here (i think still grasping the pot odds stuff) with implied odds if he hits as well. I think as long as he's prepared to let his hand go if he misses and gets bet into its not to bad a play.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 05:35 AM
(#4)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hi Austerror. nice to have you on my side

Problem is, you're going to flop your set about 10% of the time. To make setmining profitable, you have to therefor win enough the one time you flop it to balance out the 9 times you miss. That means you have to be able to win at least 10 times the calling chips to make setmining profitable in the long run. Most people use 15 times since from time to time when you do flop the set, you're still going to lose to a higher set, or a straight, flush, or boat.

In that light, to make calling the 400 profitable, I would need to have the chance to win at least 15 * 400 = 6k in chips, which he doesn't have by a long shot. I knew this making the call.

The deciding factor was the prospect of eliminating another player.

And yes, if I don't hit the set on the flop I'm done with the hand...

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keeping up with my poker semi-career: ov3rsight.blog.com
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 03:47 PM
(#5)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi Ov3rsight!

If I'm in this situation, a read on the button would help and influence my play here, also my table image and where I'm at compared to the stacks overall in the tourney. Since it's a 27-man, do I have a top 5 stack (where the money cutoff is)?

I'm going to either fold to the button's preflop raise or raise it. I would not call here, because there are so many flops that I'd have to fold to and I don't want to give away chips.

The situation where I would raise is if the opp was stealing a lot from the button. If so, they're most likely raising light and could fold to a raise. If the opp was not stealing a large number of hands, or if I had went to showdown with a marginal hand at the table and didn't have a solid table image, then I don't want to raise here.

Any other situation, I'm folding a small pocket pair here. A 4700 chip stack will normally be near the money cutoff (depending on the tourney, may need to win a hand or two to get ITM) and if the opp calls a raise, I'd be in a race or dominated for 1/2 my stack. Losing 1/2 of my stack here would make getting ITM much more difficult, let alone winning the tournament.

Due to this, I could make a case for raising in the right situation, but most likely I'll fold and look for a better spot in position.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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