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Call or fold?

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Call or fold? - Sun Jan 08, 2012, 06:19 AM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
Hand 46. I'd made 2 notes already on the villain: twice he pushed allin, those were the only hands he played... The first hand he shows A9s where he open-shoves 70BBs, the second time he shows ATo where he open-shoves 35BB. Given that, I'm pretty certain he's holding an Ax here.



Good fold?


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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 08:12 AM
(#2)
rule110's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 147
if you were certain he held Ax here then you should call as:

9d9s has 55.093% equity

vs a tight Ax range of

(A9s+, ATo+) with 44.907% equity.


If you allow the possibility of him holding any pair here also, then:

9d9s has 55.158% equity

vs the range of

(22+,A9s+,ATo+) with 44.842% equity


If you decide he is only shoving 88+ here for his tournament from early position, along with the Ax combos you feel he has, then:

9d9s has 46.009% equity

vs the range of

(88+,A9s+,ATo+) with 53.991% equity-so you are a dog in this case.


If you feel his pair requirements shoving for his tourney are looser than this, say 55+, then:

9d9s has 51.243% equity

vs the range of

(55+,A9s+,ATo+) with 48.757% equity


If you put him on 66+, with the Ax combos as well, it is almost a coinflip,where:

9d9s has 49.699% equity

vs

(66+,A9s+,ATo+) having 50.301% equity


If you put him on a looser range that includes any broadway combo, you become a favourite again, as:

9d9s has 51.730% equity

vs the range of

(66+,A9s+,ATo+,KTs+,KTo+,QTs+,QTo+,JTs,JTo) with 48.270% equity.


Here are some other ranges I pokerstove'd

the top 9.8% of hands have 52.986% equity vs your 9s9d w/ 47.014% equity

the top 11.2% of hands have 50.791% equity vs your 99

the top 12.4% of hands have 50.273% equity vs your 99

the top 13% of hands have 49.643% equity vs your 99


If he is only shoving pairs here and never Ax, then:

9d9s has 55.217% equity

vs the range of

22+ with 44.783% equity


If he is only shoving 88+ here, then:

9s9d has 29.804% equity

vs the range of

88+ with 70.196% equity.


If he has a range including the top 11.5% of hands, then:

9d9s has 49.264% equity

vs the range of

(77+,A9s+,ATo+,KTs+,KQo,QTs+,JTs,) with 50.736% equity.


So as you can see this becomes a ranging problem, and ranging is very read dependent, so if you think your read is true I would say call here as you'd be ahead. Also, in many of the ranging scenarios above you are the favourite, in others you are flipping, and in just one are you really behind. Most of the time, versus the range of hands your opponent could have, you are never a huge dog given his chipstack and your history with him at the table. and even if you are a huge dog you can flop top set and suckout

It's fun to knock people out of tourneys, with this hand I'd say take a chance-- knocking people out of tournaments is a good, and profitable, thing to do.

I'm willing to flip a coin here

Last edited by rule110; Sun Jan 08, 2012 at 08:23 AM..
 
Old
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 12:48 PM
(#3)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
100% bad fold

opp is just 12BB he will definitely push with any pair lower than 9

calling everytime even without read on opp
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 01:07 PM
(#4)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Just SNG Wiz'd this. If the guy is shoving correctly, then this is a very borderline fold. If he's spewy at all (open shoving any ace definitely counts), then you can call with something like 66+ and AT+.

Tricky spot w/o reads, def call with reads given.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 01:32 PM
(#5)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Just SNG Wiz'd this. If the guy is shoving correctly, then this is a very borderline fold. If he's spewy at all (open shoving any ace definitely counts), then you can call with something like 66+ and AT+.

Tricky spot w/o reads, def call with reads given.
panicky, i think your using too much tools

there is no very borderline fold here

if he have TT above so be it. im not folding here
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 01:47 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
panicky, i think your using too much tools
I think you're going by instinct too much. Given reads, this is not borderline, like I said. Under normal circumstances, calling here would be EV neutral (i.e. borderline). If you think we'd normally have a huge edge in this spot against a random unknown opponent, than that's probably a fallacy in your thinking.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 01:56 PM
(#7)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
I think you're going by instinct too much. Given reads, this is not borderline, like I said. Under normal circumstances, calling here would be EV neutral (i.e. borderline). If you think we'd normally have a huge edge in this spot against a random unknown opponent, than that's probably a fallacy in your thinking.
this is not even instinct this is standard

are you in any way going to fold here? definitely not, except that of course you can see your opp's card face up

but i accept your inputs

sorry if i offended you in any way
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 02:07 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
No offense taken. It's just my opinion that if you want to know the standard play in a sit 'n go, SNG Wizard is the best way to find out.

And yes, I would tend to fold this if I hadn't seen the guy open jamming Ax. I tend to fold in spots I see as being breakeven, because I think I can find better spots later.
 
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Sun Jan 08, 2012, 05:13 PM
(#9)
19honu62's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 1,770
Hello Ov3rsight I see you have yourself in another interesting spot.

Good discussion guys and nice to see we are keeping it civil and appreciate we have differing opinions.
Okay so you have only seen this guy play 2 hands and he played A9s and ATo both of which are top 12% hands! Can you help us with where he shoved from the first two times? He now is short and is jamming quite a bit wider or is he? He has been very patient and is now finally getting it in. It's very likley that he has that same top 12% of hands here.
Since he played so badly early there is no reason for me to suspect that he is any better now! However you have to suspect he isn't as wide as most 10 bb players because of his past.
You have to ask yourself would he do this from EP with a wide hand and if he isn't I can see a fold here as we do not want to risk nor do we need to risk our stack on a flip which is what this is in that range.
If however you can see him wider than this is an auto call. I simply don't have enough info here and honestly i bet you have seen more about him that you are not sharing because we are so many hands in.

In summary I think you have to be careful that you do not put this guy in a Ax range because there is a huge difference between A6 and the A9s and ATo he played.

Giddy Up!
 

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