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Push or fold?

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Push or fold? - Mon Jan 09, 2012, 04:38 AM
(#1)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

final 2 table, .25c 45 man
just switched to a new table table. only read is the limper on UTG (29)86/7. push or fold?

Last edited by Keldraco; Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:40 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 06:08 AM
(#2)
royalraise85's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 26,019
(Community Coordinator)
With your stack size here we are definitely in the Shove/Fold mode, and as the title of your thread indicates you are already aware of this. This is good, because it's important for any beginners reading this to realise that limping or raising and then folding in this spot is just not an option. When we have 10 big blinds or less in our stack we should always be in shove/fold mode.

In middle position here, personally I'd be shoving with the range that Spacegravy suggests in his training video. He reccommends in this position to shove with A9s +, KQo, QJs, 44+.

Our KJo is just outside this range and even though it is marginnaly so I think a fold here is the best option. We will be of course having the blinds pass through us shortly which is not ideal but I think we can get another full orbit of information here and hope that a stronger hand comes our way to get the chips in with.

Raiser


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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 07:45 AM
(#3)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
deleted

Last edited by Keldraco; Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:41 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 09:24 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I believe its a "from my experience" range, not like a pokerstove %age range.

I think i'm cuttin this loose w/ 6 unknowns left to act. Maybe if there were a couple more seats between you.
KJ just aint quite there against 7 unknowns calling ranges.
Of course thats just mo.
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 11:50 AM
(#5)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
what royalraise said.

i don't think a shove is terrible, though, but most likely pass here, i also probably fold 44 + 55.

jmho

just noticed there's a limper as well, i'm definitely folding here.
(note to self: read all before posting)

Last edited by Django66; Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 11:59 AM..
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 12:56 PM
(#6)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
If the limper is running that loose, I prefer a shove, since you can expect to be called by a lot worse actually (you don't have a ton of fold equity, and KJ is definitely ahead of 80% of hands), making a shove here actually for value. I definitely think this is a hard spot for me though in my games.

It should also be noted that Grayson's videos don't actually recommend a range here, since he has a 5bb range and a 10bb range, but doesn't have a ~6bb range, so if you guys are using one of the ranges he has written down, it would be a mistake not to adjust it. Also, his ranges don't account for limpers in front, so they really don't apply here much.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 02:02 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 01:03 PM
(#7)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Didnt check, was just going on what was posted here.
But I still dont think its qiute go time w/ this one. Close though
And not worried about the 80+% limper, just the 6 behind me, as they're completely unknown

Last edited by mtnestegg; Mon Jan 09, 2012 at 01:05 PM..
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 01:06 PM
(#8)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,479
(Head Trainer)
Hi all,

Good discussion! I personally think this is a much closer spot than most do. Some points:

-I do believe we have fold equity with 7.5 bb's, but if we let the blinds pass through us again that will be seriously reduced
-The presence of the limper is an encouragement to me for shoving, not a discouragement. This guy is playing 86% of his hands, so he will certainly have a decent % in his range he's folding to a shove, and another reasonable % that he's calling off which KJ plays well against. Plus he does raise 7% of the time so the only real dominating hands we might run into here (mostly) are KQ and AJ, he's likely to have raised with JJ+ or AK.

If we were in late position this would be a shove for me without question over an 86/7 limper. The fact that we're in EP and thus more likely to run into something real behind us definitely makes it more marginal.

Also I would caution about using spacegravy's recommended shove range... remember he is providing this for single table sng's which have a different pay structure and are a different scenario from this one.

Factors for a shove imo:
-We're short, far from the money... we need to find good spots to gamble, the time to "wait for a real hand" is mostly gone.
-Terrible limper in front with mostly worse hands
-EP shove over a limper looks a bit stronger so this adds a bit to our fold equity vs. the players behind us.

Factors against a shove imo:
-Lots of players still to get through, making it more likely to run into a real hand.
-Possible presence of players who can't find folds with Ax (.25c game) increasing the chances we get called and are behind as a 60-40 dog.

Ultimately I think this is really close, but I'll flip flop on Django's decision: I don't hate a fold here, but I'm probably shoving more often than not and taking my chances.

Maybe this is too aggressive... would be interested to see what ICM says about this spot.

Dave


Head Live Trainer
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 01:18 PM
(#9)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
the factor flipping it to a fold here (for me) is the lack of reads on this table, i don't want to get called by both blinds and who knows else, if i knew i was just facing the limper i'd shove here too but here i still fold.
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 02:05 PM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLangolier View Post
would be interested to see what ICM says about this spot.
Is it possible to ICM this without knowing the limper's exact calling range and the responses of everyone behind to a limp and a shove in front? I'd SNG Wiz this, but I don't think it'd work.
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 07:22 PM
(#11)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
i input the table into ICM the other day but i'm not sure how accurate it is. MP1 pushing range is about 17%-18% with no edge and around 12% with worst edge. can't remember clearly
 
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Mon Jan 09, 2012, 09:24 PM
(#12)
ahar010's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 614
I think we're way too far out of the money for ICM to make any real difference here really.

Chip EV should pretty much equal Prize EV almost exactly. ie having double the chips means double the expected prize, 0 chip = 0 prize.

So ICM should give the same answer as just ranging and working out our EV.

Shove or Fold?

I would be conflicted I would want to shove, but so many left to act I would be pretty nervous. I think the limper does make shoving more profitable. Not only cause we make him fold a percentage of the time and pick up 375 instead of 225. But also he has the big stack of the table. Us pushing, would force any of the other mid stacks to be a little hesitant to just call 1/3 of their stack with a marginal hand since they may well be forced allin by the big stack also.

I probably fall off the fence on the side of shoving.




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Weigh the options - Shove or Fold? - Tue Jan 10, 2012, 02:32 AM
(#13)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keldraco View Post
final 2 table, .25c 45 man
just switched to a new table table. only read is the limper on UTG (29)86/7. push or fold?
Situation: (.25 MTT; 15-17 players left of 45)
You are holding a KJo (8BB stack) in EP, with 6 players yet to act (plus UTG), most with around 3 times your stack. Only read is that the big stack UTG plays 86/7 (29 hands).

Shove option: You only have 8BB’s, and the blinds are coming up soon. If the blinds go through you, without making a move, you’ll be down to 6BB’s. There’s extra dead money in the pot because of the UTG limp.
Pro: Some fold equity; small buy-ins have weaker players that might look you up with hands you are ahead of, or dominating.
Con: 6 players yet to act, plus the UTG limper; small buy-ins have lots of weaker players that play weak Ax hands.

Fold option: Even if you get only one caller (which is likely), you’re not going to have the 43% equity the extra dead money offers you. The extra money from the limper is a double-edged sword! Not only would you get a better payout if you win, so will the other players should they get involved in the hand. If you shove, the next player in the pot will need 43% equity to make it a 0EV play; they will only need to put 1/3 of their stack in. Even though your shove is from an EP, it’s also coming from an 8BB stack (wider range). The BB only needs 40% equity to make this call. Almost all the hands that get involved in this pot will either dominate you, or will be flipping on the plus side, against you.
Pro: If you wait, you may get a better hand and/or better position. You’re looking to get your money in first, with fewer players behind, which is ideal for a short stack.
Con: If the blinds go through you, you’ll have less fold equity (6BB stack).

Taking everything into consideration… I feel that there are too many players behind for a shove. That alone carries more weight than possibly losing some chips due to blinds. FOLD
 
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Tue Jan 10, 2012, 03:53 AM
(#14)
Keldraco's Avatar
Since: Jul 2011
Posts: 102
This is the range from ICM.
open shoving range: 22+, A7s+, A5s-A4s, ATo+, K9s, KJo+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s.

Actually at that moment when i see KJo pop up and UTG limp, i push all-in. Maybe i over trust ICM, i dont know. All my push/fold are according to ICM because i believe every time i shove, fold or call when i am support to, it should be a +EV. ( if i don't it -EV. sometime i question myself,this could be the reason why i posted this hand)

When the loose UTG limp, it actually encourage me to shove because my KJo should be ahead most of the time(i'm not sure if i want to push small pair, probably not. Folding small pair here shouldn't be a -EV since it not an open shove?and i will like face 2 high card). I didn't think deep into the extra chip, fold equity, or the present of UTG might affect other players decision(area i should work on). If UTG open folded, I might hesitate, trying to recall the pushing range here is KQo+ or KJo+...

If i am wrong using ICM as my push/fold/call range then there is a major leak in my play. So please correct me ASAP. This was how the hand turn up:

Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner

MP3 calling range is 99+, AJs+, AKo

Last edited by Keldraco; Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 05:32 AM..
 

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