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Final 3 in 45-man, TPBK

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Final 3 in 45-man, TPBK - Tue Jan 10, 2012, 10:56 AM
(#1)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450


Final 3 players in a 45-man SnG.

BTN folds. Villain limps from the SB. He rarely limps but when he does it's with drawing hands, such as suited or offsuit connectors, decent suited cards or small pocket pairs. I don't think he'd be limping with a small pair here as he seems very aware of fold equity. My thoughts before the flop are that he's limping with a marginal drawing hand, hoping to take my stack if he hits. I considered raising him here, but he'd definitely call and he's not folding the flop unless he misses completely.

I hit top pair on the flop and he bets into me. I opt to raise here because I most likely have the best hand, and at the same time I'm giving him a chance to fold or at worst I'm charging him for any straight or flush draws. He calls which surprised me a little.

The ace on the turn gives me a flush draw and improves my equity. Even if he had two spades himself, I definitely had a higher spade. He'd raise any ace or any Tx+ preflop so I'm still confident that I'm ahead here. He bets into me and I raise again. He hesitates and eventually calls. I'm pretty certain he has a pair of sixes, a flush draw or a straight draw at this point.

River is a 5, completing the flush draw that I put him on. This time he checks to me. I could fire another bet here but he'd never call with worse hands given the strong line I've taken, and the flush just got there. There was still a possibility that he had a small PP such as 77-99, but again, he'd probably raise preflop if he did. He'd also be more aggressive with two pairs and a set from what I've seen.

Any thoughts?
 
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Tue Jan 10, 2012, 05:01 PM
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TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
HI fesk,

Actually if you can narrow his range this precisely preflop as small and middling suited connector type hands then there is merit to raising preflop (you say you know he calls, but that's ok because he will check/fold post flop when he misses, and this will easily be enough to show a profit). And, you only have 25 bb's, there's also some merit to just shoving pre. It's a lot of risk for the blinds and antes, but if your read is accurate then he basically has no calling range so we would expect folds close to 100% of the time. The read has to be pretty strong for this imo.

On the flop, I'm not raising his lead bet. Our hand strength doesn't really warrant playing for stacks as we'll often be behind when we get it in, so my preference is to call and keep the pot small, keeping the worse parts of his range in the mix.

On the turn, I definitely am not raising, if he's got ace like he's repping he'll never fold and may even put us all in, and that's a bet we really don't want to face when we pick up a back door flush draw as we won't really be getting a good price to draw to it.

As played, I really like checking the river down. I think you made an accurate observation that he's never calling with worse hands, and he's also not likely to fold better, so there's no point in betting on the end.

Dave


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Consider the payout structure - Tue Jan 10, 2012, 08:18 PM
(#3)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
Final 3 players in a 45-man SnG. Any thoughts?
This hand comes with a very comprehensive PF read on the villain. Unfortunately, we don’t have any reads on the villain’s post-flop betting trends. We don’t know what he’s seen us do, and how he’s been playing against us. Both players have around a 25BB stack, an awkward stack, at best; the chip leader sits on 35BB’s. The payouts at the top are: 1st 35%, 2nd 25%, and 3rd 16%. With the pay jumps just about even between the positions, getting to 2nd place is just as important as getting to the top from 2nd place. Unlike other payout structures that are top heavy, this structure makes 2nd place payout very attractive; does the villain feel the same way? With this payout structure, with these chip stacks, I’m interested in getting to at least 2nd place.

FLOP
When the villain limps PF, our reads eliminate over pairs, sets, and Ax hands, on this post-flop board. We know that the villain has an understanding of the game, and should be a thinking player. When the villain bets just under a pot bet, he may hold a non-nut flush draw, straight draw (ended or gut), two pair, Tx, 9x, 5x, and possibly air (no reads). Some villains routinely bet OP HU, but that would be opponent dependent. The villain made a large bet, possibly to protect his hand (Tx), or has draws and wants to build a pot, or possibly just to push us off the hand. Hero has top pair, and isn’t going anywhere. Hero opts to raise - (I think) hero feels that at this point all he is losing to is a better Tx (which should be any Ten villain holds), and two pair (T9). But, there are lots of other hands that he is beating (but are they making a pot size bet?).
Hero Raised:
Advantage: bet protects his hand; may take the pot down now; gives him turn control; gets paid off by draws and non-believers, which include 9x, and 5x (by the reads there are no pocket pairs, or two over cards (which would probably raise PF).
Disadvantage: you may get value bet or semi-bluffed off the hand; you have equity with top pair, and want to get to showdown without getting committed to the pot.
I like the CALL option. I want to pot control; as I said before, I want to finish in at least 2nd place due to the payout structure – this line gives me the best chance to get to SD for cheap.

TURN
Villain calls our flop raise, and continues with what seems to be a donked blocker bet on the ‘turned’ Ace. Would he do that with two pair? I doubt it, he’d bet more, and our reads tell us not to be afraid of the Ace! We should be ahead of all his non-Tx hands. We now pick up more equity in the hand (flush draw). This may be a good time to SHOVE, and get rid of the draws. The villain may be a bit of a 'station', and would be willing to call another normal size raise, but not a shove. Our betting has been consistent with a draw, two pair, and KT. If hero just calls, it might set the villain up for a river steal. The hero raises – (I think) hero still feels that he is ahead of villain, and that he wants him to pay for his draws.
Hero Raised:
Advantage: hero keeps control of the hand, making it possible to get checked to on the river for a SD; sets up a possible creative move by hero (if he’s afraid of a better Tx), but SHOVE is better now; potential to make more money on the river if hero connects with his flush (slight chance villain has hero out-flushed in spades (J8s), but doubtful (combinatorically)).
Disadvantage: villain will pay for his draws, (getting very good pot odds to draw); villain seems to have shown he’s a little bit stationy (unless he’s been tricky, with a set or flush (but would he make a near pot size flop bet?). Hero's small raise may be called by Tx, 9x, and 5x, all of which are getting 6:1 (plus, possible implied odds), to draw to an 8:1 shot, although some of his outs, will actually give villain reverse implied odds (has villain counted on hero having a flush draw?); hero's raise sets villain up for a reraise SHOVE, is hero ready for that?
As the hand was played – I have to rely on the reads (hope villain hasn’t played tricky); I would go with the SHOVE option. This may get villain to fold his draws, as well as any other one pair hand he has (including the Tx hand that may be beating hero). If villain calls, hero has lots of outs. I normally don’t get into situations like this, but it seems like hero has to do something, otherwise he may get bet off the hand on the river. The call option leaves hero too vulnerable in this hand. Hero can easily get bet off the hand on the river if he just calls. On the plus side, a call would leave hero with a 15BB stack, if he wants to bail out of the hand.

RIVER
Villain checks the rivered heart. Hero is happy to get to SD. Is villain being tricky? Is he trying to get hero to bluff the river? Is the villain as afraid of the heart as hero is? Too many unanswered questions. Will villain fold better if hero bets? Will villain call with worse if hero bets? As it stands, I don’t think worse hands will call, but those better Tx hands, may fold. I don’t think that Tx makes up enough of his range to risk the tourney on a river shove.
I’m happy I didn’t have any other river decisions. I’m CHECKING it down, while I still have a 15BB stack to work with if I lose.
.
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 04:47 AM
(#4)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Cheers for the elaborated replies!

I had been ranging (especially) this guy since the start of the final table to have an edge on him if we were to make it to the top 4, because I felt that he was the biggest threat, so I was pretty confident that my reads were accurate. The bet/call on the flop surprised me a little though because he wasn't really a station so given his tendencies that could only be a draw, 77-99, or middle pair. The 5 was actually a little surprising, but still a possibility. I guess shoving PF or the turn would have been the best play.
 

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