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Q,Q in bb vs unknown opp in sb

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Q,Q in bb vs unknown opp in sb - Tue Jan 10, 2012, 06:29 PM
(#1)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
HI! guys

This is opp's 2nd hand since joining the table. The first hand opp calls in bb vs sb's 3x OR and then calls 2/3 pot bets on flop n turn on 6d,3s,Qh,9h board, finally folds to 2/3 pot bet on As river.



Given that the opp played the first hand very passively, his 3bet pre-flop obviously comes across very strong. Can there be a case made for folding pre-flop in this spot given the action so far and lack of info on opp?

I did think about folding but Q,Q is such a strong hand heads up that I felt it would be too weak to fold pre-flop and given the action so far if I catch a favourable flop, I was sure to double up. I thought about 4 betting pre-flop n folding to 5bet but figured I will only get called by a better hand and get a fold from worst hand so I decided against it.

Was it the right line to take in the long run given that we don't have any information on opp or is it too weak?

Cheers.
 
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Tue Jan 10, 2012, 11:10 PM
(#2)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
NICE QUESTION Dedeyez! Thanks.

(Note: the villain raised, with what was the 2bet, you re-raised which was the 3bet, and he re-re-raised, making a 4bet. Your choice was to 5bet or flat the 4bet, not 4bet and fold to a 5bet.)

I'd like to open things by weighing in with my opinion on your specific question(s)/comment(s)...

Can there be a case made for folding QQ pre on the info you have, sure there can be...

1) you know he is strong by his bet patterns. He would not have taken it PAST a 3bet without real strength. this can be abundantly clear even on the minimal info you have, and only HOW STRONG is the real question brought about by your lack of read info.

2) you are pretty sure this is strong by your observations of passive play before, so setting AK as the bottom end may not be totally without reason; other cards by a passive palyer would probably be played more passively. Even if you go with a value range only of JJ+ AKs (gr 1 hands) plus AKo, there are AA and KK that crush you, and only JJ you crush (24 combo's vs 12), and 16 combo's your are racing with a slight edge.

3) due to the lack of info you will likely have by betting here post flop, it will be quite hard for you to bet large enough on any street to take a station off AK, in fear he has KK/AA. This means you will probably lose near the max number of times when he has AK (just under 50%), even if he does not hit until the turn or river.

4) if he is really as passive and station-y as your read is starting to tell you, there will probably be BETTER spots to get it in with him later on...

Bottom line: If you feel saving money in a spot by not playing when you are quite possibly going to be un-sure of your actions throughout the hand, AND if you are equally sure you will be able to see a BETTER spot later on (or the same spot, but with more clarity to your info), then folding QQ can be justifiable in my opinion.

Do you HAVE to fold it? No.

This is a personal choice, and is largely up to your personal preference whether or not to fold instead of calling a 3bet or making a 4bet.

What do YOU feel about it Dedeyez, and everyone else?

As for your line, I think it is fine really...

Pre flop it folds to the Villain's SB; he makes it 30c to go, a very standard raise.
Even passive nits can see blind on blind situations as places where an open raise may well get a random hand BB to fold without contest, so the first raise does not immediately mean strength.

You, however, DO have real strength in your holding: QQ.
You 3bet it a standard amount, making it 90c to go (2 times more than the initial raise).
Perfectly reasonable in my opinion...

When the villain then makes a standard 4bet, That is where the above info has to enter into your thoughts and decisions...

As my opinion above states: sure you can justify a fold on minimal info.
If you do not WANT to fold though, you can justify a flat certainly, even if it is just to set mine on QQ.

Consider...

1) if an A or K flops, you can be pretty certain ANY bet by the villain has you beat. You can fold pretty easily then, saving upwards of $8.00+

2) if a Q flops, as well as an A or K, and the villain bets, the SPR going to the flop is such that you are almost assured of getting the balance of the effective stack (roughly $7.30).

3) even if an A or K comes on the flop, the passive play you have seen may still allow you at least 1 "free shot" at spiking a Q and getting his whole stack.

4) if an A or K does NOT come, and you hold a board over pair, you will not really be able to safely extract value from this player, but it is quite likely he will NOT bring sufficient pressure on you at any point to make you fold either. the pot on the flop would be pretty lucrative in and of itself to win on a check down even if you elect to be "careful"...

So altogether, in my opinion calling the 4bet is far better than making an immediate 5bet here.
All a 5th bet would tend to do is make a loss BIGGER if an A or K comes on ANY street (he probably will not fold ever to a 5th bet), and win you slightly more if your QQ as a board over pair is best. You'd still not really be free and clear to extract max value against him unless you try a risky all in 5bet move.

You COULD justify an all in 5bet combinatronically by saying you are a race+ vs. 28 of 52 combo's of hands in even a very tight range here, but if you take JJ out of his range even, then it would be a clearly -eV spot for you to set up a stack off (24 combo's that crush you, 16 you race, 0 you crush). 2 hands is really not enough to tell if JJ belongs in his range or not, or whether his call range vs a 5bet all in is even wider than we'd be led to think, so we lack info to really LIKE going for it pre on an all in 5bet...see?

So I have no issue with flatting the 4bet at all personally, but i'd think a 5bet is just TOO risky for you here...

What do you think about it Dedeyes, and everyone else?

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Tue Jan 10, 2012 at 11:47 PM..
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 12:30 AM
(#3)
deadeyz's Avatar
Since: Oct 2011
Posts: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
This is a personal choice, and is largely up to your personal preference whether or not to fold instead of calling a 3bet or making a 4bet.

What do YOU feel about it Dedeyez, and everyone else?

So I have no issue with flatting the 4bet at all personally, but i'd think a 5bet is just TOO risky for you here...

What do you think about it Dedeyes, and everyone else?

Hope it helps.

-JDean
Hi! Dave, Thanks for the 4bet/5bet clarification. I felt that folding Q,Q heads up pre-flop in blind battle would be too weak even though the action by the opp is screaming of strength. I opted to flat the 4bet cos even if the opp is making play with A,K our hand is not that far ahead plus as I said in the original post only the hands which have Q,Q beat would call the 5bet.

On the flop there is no point betting once the action is checked around to us, right?? Generally in my experience when an opp has taken an initiative pre-flop n checks the flop quickly more often than not they tend to have a big hand. I think the big bet on the turn makes our decision very easy plus the board is really ugly for our hand now.

Cheers.
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 10:03 AM
(#4)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I like the 3bet, and 4bet flat. (for reason already stated)
W/ that flop, checking behind a quick check is also ok, although now you'll probably be folding to any future bets by the sb, but trying to check down here seems very reasonable given the board texture. I dont mind the fold here at all. Off to the next hand...
You're right that that timing tell often means strength in my experience. (i'll sometimes use this as a reverse tell, as many players believe that to be true though) a quick check then a quick delayed cbet very often takes down pots.
Try it. You'll like it..
Also using the clock to make ppl think you have a tough descision, can also work in your favor.
I just try to mix it up randomly, So i'm harder to read.
I also think if you're not mixing up TAG & LAG play depending on table dynamics, you'll be missing alot of value long term.
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 07:55 PM
(#5)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
Hi! Dave, Thanks for the 4bet/5bet clarification. I felt that folding Q,Q heads up pre-flop in blind battle would be too weak even though the action by the opp is screaming of strength. I opted to flat the 4bet cos even if the opp is making play with A,K our hand is not that far ahead plus as I said in the original post only the hands which have Q,Q beat would call the 5bet.
yup, this is the jist of my post in answer to your Q...

A case can be made for FOLDING, but that is a passive line indeed.
You have no idea on line whether this guy will stick around long enough for you to find a better spot; live though, this is more an option with limited table changes chances.

A case can be made for flatting the 4bet too, and that is exactly what you did here, state that case. I agree with it 100%.

A case can also be made that on the minimal info you have, a 5bet jam is just value owning, and if the villain wakes up with AK you'd have gotten "lucky" to have a race situation.. MORE info that points to him possibly being wider here could bring a 5bet jam into play but we don;t have more info

Quote:
Originally Posted by deadeyz View Post
On the flop there is no point betting once the action is checked around to us, right?? Generally in my experience when an opp has taken an initiative pre-flop n checks the flop quickly more often than not they tend to have a big hand. I think the big bet on the turn makes our decision very easy plus the board is really ugly for our hand now.

Cheers.
Zero point in betting that I can see at least...

Everything you've seen to this point (it is minimal info, but you should not totally discount it) says this guy is PASSIVE. That means he is un-likely to bet a hand that has you beat here.

He is also a station, so even if he has KK he is unlikely to fold thinking you checked thru on an A to raise the turn, and he will also peel one quite frequently on KK jsut in CASE you barrelled the flop on something like QQ; that is what stations do .

I'm thinking he is dead red on AA/AK, and was playing "tricky" to get you to bet.

So I think you took the line that was best overall in the widest range of circumstances...

And just think, if the turn comes a Q, you probably stack this guy for his passivity in not betitng the flop


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 08:07 PM..
 

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