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Hand need help analyzing what I should have done.

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Hand need help analyzing what I should have done. - Tue Jan 10, 2012, 11:34 PM
(#1)
cohen513's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3
BronzeStar
So I was playing in another live tournament tonight I was fairly deep, defenetly way past the 50% mark. Anyway I had about 15k chips left and the blinds were 1/2k..so UTG+1 goas all in and he has about 6 or 7k worth of chips, UTG+2 calls him really fast he has about 10k chips everyone folds to me and I am on dealer button with 66. I ended up folding because I figured it probably wasnt a good situation to be in with 66 against an all in and a call. Now that I think about it the UTG+1 probably could have shipped it with anything, and UTG+2 was most likely strong. Anyway UTG+1 turns up A10 offsuit and UTG+2 turns up AJ offsuit. The board didnt hit either of them and I would have won the pot had I also gone all in with my 66.

Was this the right play? or at this point in the tournament with less than 10BB left should I have called it and took the gamble to try and get ,big? I'm pretty sure it is a very marginal situation but now that I think about it I think it probably was a mistake and I should have just taken the gamble.

Your thoughts are much appreciated.
 
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Tue Jan 10, 2012, 11:45 PM
(#2)
Swaxwell's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 315
Good fold IMO. Better that you are the shover rather than the caller with 66, especially against 2 players.
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 11:37 AM
(#3)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,817
(Super-Moderator)
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Hi cohen513!

Tough spot, that the more tournies you play in, the more times you'll see.

With less than 10BB, I'm looking to find a spot to shove, but unless I have a premium hand, I try to find spots where I'm the first one to shove (to maximize fold equity and put the pressure on my opponents).

You're absolutely correct that when UTG shoves their last 3BB, they could be doing this with a very wide range of cards and if just up against that player, 66 plays very well against their range.
When UTG+2 has only 5BB left and just calls here, that would make me think for a second, as if they're going to play the hand, they really should be shoving too. This player thinks they have a better hand than UTG+1, but didn't shove, which in my opinion is probably a big ace (a player could also do this with a premium hand).

66 plays much better against one opp than two, because there's a better chance of someone having a higher pocket pair or if they don't have a pair, there will be more overcards that a player can hit. 66 against one player with two overcards is a 51% favorite.
If there are two opps and say for example that UTG+1's range is (any pair, any broadway, any A) and UTG+2 (any pair, any broadway) then 66 will not be the favorite and will only win 33% of the time.

Due to these equity numbers, especially if the money bubble is coming soon, I like your fold in this situation and would make the exact same play. I would want to try and find a spot with a playable hand where I could be the first to shove.

In live tourneys, depending on how quickly the blinds go up and how large my stack is compared to the other players' stacks, instead of looking at 10BB as the point where I'll shove, I may drop that level to 5BB or even 3BB if it gets me ITM. Of course, any real hand that I get, I'm playing.
I've played in a number of small live tourneys that when it got down to 6-8 of us left, almost everyone was below 10BB and the ones that were not, would be with the next blind increase or two.

The other thing with hands like this, don't be results oriented. Once you fold a hand, nothing after that matters. You want to be focused on making the best decision that you can, for that hand, at that point in time. If you are doing this, then everything else will work itself out in the long run.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


Super-Moderator



6 Time Bracelet Winner


 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 01:20 PM
(#4)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
I will fold also
 

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