Home / Community / Forum / Poker Education / Texas Hold'Em Tournament Section (MTTs & STTs) /

Shoving with aces vs flush draw

Old
Default
Shoving with aces vs flush draw - Wed Jan 11, 2012, 06:17 PM
(#1)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450


45-man SNG, final table with 7 players left.

I know that there's a possibility that he had two pairs or a set, but I've seen him take the exact same line after the bubble burst in three previous tournaments with a flush draw (and once with top pair), so I decided to shove on him for value. I was actually willing to risk my tournament life on this hand. The reasons being that if I win, I become the dominant chip leader and I'll be able to bully the table and somewhat "ensure" myself of a top three cash. And, of course, the move is +EV (more than 1:1, him hitting his flush is 2:1) given that my read is right. I'm wondering if this is correct or if I should have done something different.
 
Old
Default
Wed Jan 11, 2012, 06:52 PM
(#2)
Django66's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 215
as you said, there's a possibility of a set there, tp or 2p but he could also have QQ+ or a strong draw, imo.

i don't think i'm good enough not to go broke there very often.
 
Old
Default
Thu Jan 12, 2012, 01:20 AM
(#3)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
for me,

it's a good shove

max value and he need to pay for his draws

he hit his outers next time he won't and your Aces will hold

you say " nice hand, sir "

then register the next game
 
Old
Default
Thu Jan 12, 2012, 02:16 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello Feskprins!

Looking through this hand, it appears that you can definately justify making your stand here in my opinion...

PRE FLOP:

You start with 23BB give or take.

Right from jump street this should tell you that if you face any of the other 10k+ stacks you are not going to have enough chips in your stack to play a standard line which includes 2 barrels; you have 1 shot to take down the pot before you are at a committment point, and that's it. It is even debatable whether you have a single half pot flop bet barrel in your gun without banging into a commitment point too.

Obviously you are not folding AA pre (I hope!).

Your open raise and a single caller created a stack to pot ratio of just over 4; that is right in line with what you want to make commitment easy on an over pair. (You even bet a small ball amount just over a 2BB to go raise amount...so if that sticks you 15% deep, that should show how little play your stack had!).

FLOP:

You flop AA as an over pair in a big pot.

You lead for a pretty standard amount with your over pair (2150 into a 3930 pot). That puts your investment up to just above 25%.

This is where it gets sticky...

The bigger stack raises, making it 3250 more to go. You cannot CALL this amount and ever fold thereafter without taking a huge stack hit, so that is your decision point to shove or fold...

I have no clue what ICM says here, but it breaks down like this for me:

If I win this pot with my over pair I am the new chip boss, and have a good shot at running deep.
If I lose this pot to a set, I am at least itm for a small cash.
If I FOLD, I am still 3rd chip stack, but would have revealed to the big stack that I might be a ladder climber who is bluff-able, at least until the shorties are gone.

If this big stack were a nit who'd never raise up a semi bluff after I c-bet, and who'd NEVER over value his hand, I MIGHT be able to find a fold for chip preservation reasons. But with a good number of hands BEHIND my over pair, and with a few of the hands that are "math favorites" over my AA being combo draws that haven't hit yet (like KQc), I'm not living in mortal fear of a better made hands.

I think there are enough hands that raise your C-Bet that are BEHIND your AA (and all but must call a jam by you with odds) to easily justify a stand on a pot which has grown this large.

COULD you have maybe folded to the flop raise, save 10k as the 3rd stack and run deep? Yup, you could have. but I do not think this is the best thing for you to do at all...

As it played out, the villain really only had 9 clubs and 2 Js to run you down, you were well ahead, but his 43% shot hit. It happens.

You had enough reason, in my opinion, to play "go big or go home" here...

Hope it helps.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 03:14 AM..
 
Old
Default
Thu Jan 12, 2012, 05:16 AM
(#5)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
This helped a lot clearing some things up. Thanks a lot, JDean, Marvin and Django!
 
Old
Default
Only 39% equity against a tight PF range - Thu Jan 12, 2012, 01:00 PM
(#6)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Feskprins View Post
45-man SNG, final table with 7 players left.

I know that there's a possibility that he had two pairs or a set, but I've seen him take the exact same line after the bubble burst in three previous tournaments with a flush draw (and once with top pair), so I decided to shove on him for value. I was actually willing to risk my tournament life on this hand. The reasons being that if I win, I become the dominant chip leader and I'll be able to bully the table and somewhat "ensure" myself of a top three cash. And, of course, the move is +EV (more than 1:1, him hitting his flush is 2:1) given that my read is right. I'm wondering if this is correct or if I should have done something different.
This is definitely a spot you need a very good read on your villains PF range, as well as his post-flop actions. You’ve supplied his post-flop tendencies, but that really doesn’t limit what he could have gone in with PF.

If he is a tight PF player, then the ratio of hands for semi-bluffs (draws), to two pair, and set hands is lower. PF to post-flop action: he’s raising post-flop with these ‘club’ suited hands; AQ-AJ-KQ-KJ- these off suited hands; AJ and JT, pocket pairs; TT and 55, at the moment lets eliminate small % of ‘air’. I’m assuming he’s 3-betting PF with, JJ+ and AK. I had to ‘poker stove’ this, you are behind his overall raising range (39/61). If he would also semi-bluff with KQo, your equity jumps up to 51/49. You still have to think about all that dead money in the pot, and the odds you are getting. If you shove and he calls, you’re getting 2:1 odds. He will have to fold his ‘air’ balls (maybe he thought he could push you off the pot – some chip leaders have that play in their arsenal). Even getting the right odds, the down side is, your tourney may be over, especially if he has a set.

Conversely, if he has a wider PF range, he has more semi-bluff hands in the mix, giving you more equity then him, and a better reason to get it all-in.

Bottom line is his PF range, and what you want from this tourney. If you want to go for the win, this will give you an overwhelming stack at this final table. If you fold and wait for a better spot, because of variance… you have an average stack (17BB), but variance will still be a factor in this match.

As for me, if this villain is a loose PF player, an aggressive post-flop player (semi-bluffs), a SPR of 3, and a great chance to take down this tourney, I’m shoving back at him!
.
 
Old
Default
Fri Jan 13, 2012, 07:16 AM
(#7)
Feskprins's Avatar
Since: May 2011
Posts: 450
Quote:
Originally Posted by king_spadez1 View Post
This is definitely a spot you need a very good read on your villains PF range, as well as his post-flop actions. You’ve supplied his post-flop tendencies, but that really doesn’t limit what he could have gone in with PF.

If he is a tight PF player, then the ratio of hands for semi-bluffs (draws), to two pair, and set hands is lower. PF to post-flop action: he’s raising post-flop with these ‘club’ suited hands; AQ-AJ-KQ-KJ- these off suited hands; AJ and JT, pocket pairs; TT and 55, at the moment lets eliminate small % of ‘air’. I’m assuming he’s 3-betting PF with, JJ+ and AK. I had to ‘poker stove’ this, you are behind his overall raising range (39/61). If he would also semi-bluff with KQo, your equity jumps up to 51/49. You still have to think about all that dead money in the pot, and the odds you are getting. If you shove and he calls, you’re getting 2:1 odds. He will have to fold his ‘air’ balls (maybe he thought he could push you off the pot – some chip leaders have that play in their arsenal). Even getting the right odds, the down side is, your tourney may be over, especially if he has a set.

Conversely, if he has a wider PF range, he has more semi-bluff hands in the mix, giving you more equity then him, and a better reason to get it all-in.

Bottom line is his PF range, and what you want from this tourney. If you want to go for the win, this will give you an overwhelming stack at this final table. If you fold and wait for a better spot, because of variance… you have an average stack (17BB), but variance will still be a factor in this match.

As for me, if this villain is a loose PF player, an aggressive post-flop player (semi-bluffs), a SPR of 3, and a great chance to take down this tourney, I’m shoving back at him!
.
Honestly, I didn't even consider those factors consciously. It took me quite a while before I decided to shove, and I ran through every possibility (except his PF range) and I've never seen him call in those spots with hands like JT, J5, T5 etc so two pairs were out of the question. He'd reraise me with TT, JJ and KK. The only hands that made sense were QJs (although somewhat unlikely), KJs, AJs, ATs, KTs and so on. KQs was of course a possibility, but combinatorically, it's more likely that he has a pair with a flush draw, or just a flush draw alone, especially since I've seen that exact same line in previous tournaments in the same stage of the tourney.

As for "going for the win", my thinking is that I'm already in the money, and I don't mind if I mincash because I felt that the risk/reward ratio is so big. If I was put in this spot 1000s of times, I'm sure I would profit more from just shoving there than taking any other line.

You gave me a whole lot more to think about. Thanks for that!
 

Getting PokerStars is easy: download and install the PokerStars game software, create your free player account, and validate your email address. Clicking on the download poker button will lead to the installation of compatible poker software on your PC of 51.7 MB, which will enable you to register and play poker on the PokerStars platform. To uninstall PokerStars use the Windows uninstaller: click Start > Control Panel and then select Add or Remove programs > Select PokerStars and click Uninstall or Remove.

Copyright (c) PokerSchoolOnline.com. All rights reserved, Rational Group, Douglas Bay Complex, King Edward Road, Onchan, Isle of Man, IM3 1DZ. You can email us on support@pokerschoolonline.com