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AQ Facing Early Stage AI

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AQ Facing Early Stage AI - Wed Jan 11, 2012, 09:09 PM
(#1)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
I try to avoid coin flips during the early stage of a tourney. I’d rather use my skill to win the tourney. I feel if I coin flip, I’m giving the weaker player an edge. But, sometimes it’s unavoidable, or is it?

This is a 6 man SNG top two get paid (65%; 35%). This is a top-level ‘play money’ game, which plays like its micro stake equivalent. (I’m a US player)

It’s the 5th hand of the match. There are no real reads, but Cordobeno, and Electcheif, have played the majority of the hands. They may be ‘bingo’ players, but too soon to tell.

PF:
I lead out with a standard 3X PFR, and our friends in the blinds call.

FLOP:
SB ‘donks’ a 1/3 pot bet (same size as PFR), which was called by the BB. In general, I read plays like this from unknown players, as blocker bets. At this point, I don’t think that they hold AA-JJ-99-AK, all of which I feel (90%) they would have 3bet PF; or at least, bet more on the flop, to protect their hand. That still leaves AJ-A9-J9, I think they would have bet more on the flop to protect their hand, but, maybe I can find out with a raise. I don’t want to lose control of the hand, but I don’t want to get committed either. I decide to make a ‘conditional’ commitment bet. The conditions being… 1st: if Cordobeno makes a play at the pot, I’m giving him the pot; 2nd: if there’s no scare card on the turn, and no action from Cordobeno, I’m going to make an aggressive move at the pot. So, I make a smallish raise, enough for draws to call, and two pair to shove, but not enough to get me committed. I know this might be a bad idea, because such a small raise might give Cordobeno an incentive to shove a draw. He still may have slow played a hand that is beating me, I just don’t know.

After the replayer stops, click the far right controller button to show the updated pot:


WHOA, what just happened? All this time I was worried about Cordobeno; I didn’t even consider Electchief. What am I going to do? I still have a very good stack, and the tourney just started. I feel I can outplay the table; do I lick my wounds, and run away? – Or – do I get it AI right now?

After the hand is evaluated, and discussed (hopefully)... I’ll post my analysis, and decision.

Thanks in advance for your support!
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Last edited by king_spadez1; Wed Jan 11, 2012 at 09:26 PM.. Reason: Left some hands out of analysis
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 10:18 PM
(#2)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
lots of draws possibility i think et is drawing, or maybe he got 2 pair or a set he slowplayed it first then someone reraises he jammed instantly

but even if he is drawing you said your good and you can beat them by playing poker

so i'll let it go and hopefully we can outplay them later
 
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Wed Jan 11, 2012, 11:36 PM
(#3)
joy7108's Avatar
Since: Jul 2010
Posts: 2,287
This is the kind of hand I shove and regret later. You have top pair and second kicker, what exactly are you waiting for?? You are rarely going to flop better, and it's a play money game (roughly equivalent to a freeroll).

In a freeroll, I'm shoving, and I'd do the same here.

 
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 04:55 AM
(#4)
JDean's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 3,145
BronzeStar
Hello King_Spadez1...

I love your lead in info, nice write up!

I think you've thought deeply enough about your spot here, and described it deeply enough, that you really do not need one of my regular mega-posts!

I'll keep it short...

A flat then a jam here, even by a loose player, rarely means a weak hand at the micro levels (and I'd agree that hi play money is quite like micro play, was shocked when I saw that).

That donk lead can surely be some sort of weird blocker bet to get to a draw, and the call by Electcheif can easily be any sort of weird tiny catch on this flop. so I really think you are spot on in your bet sizing for your stack here. You really want to bet something on the strength you have (because you ARE ahead here a lot), but you really do not want to be sticking yourself too hard with a 1 pair hand until you know what is going to happen.

When Electcheif suddenly wakes up and jams, your "conditional committment" has to go out of the window in my opinion...

That action is just too strong, and too rarely is made as a bluff or semi bluff, to make AQ love calling along. COULD you be making a fold of the best hand; sure. But I am guessing that the LEAST you are facing is a mega strong 2 way draw (like QTd), and a set is way more likely in my view.

It could be that Electcheif is over-valuing his hand here, but aobut the only hand he can over-value and puts his chips in would be AK; that has you crushed.

Folding leaves you 36BB...

Muck, move on, get more info and come back swinging at 'em later.

-JDean


Double Bracelet Winner

Last edited by JDean; Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 04:58 AM..
 
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Responses to analyses - Thu Jan 12, 2012, 08:36 AM
(#5)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by marvinsytan View Post
even if he is drawing you said your good and you can beat them by playing poker

so i'll let it go and hopefully we can outplay them later
This was a big part of my ‘balance scale’ for not getting it all-in. But, as the timer was ticking down, I was still weighing the ‘lines’ taken so far, by both of the villains.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joy7108 View Post
This is the kind of hand I shove and regret later. You have top pair and second kicker, what exactly are you waiting for?? You are rarely going to flop better, and it's a play money game (roughly equivalent to a freeroll).

In a freeroll, I'm shoving, and I'd do the same here.

I don’t really want this to be a hand I regret later. I want to be okay with my decision, whichever way I go. There are many things to consider in this situation, not just what I flopped. If I invested money into the pot PF, knowing the SPR would be around 3, than you’re right by saying, ‘What exactly are you waiting for?’ - and - ‘You are rarely going to flop better!’ As it was played, I invested 1/16 of my stack PF. It was during the flop round, that the pot got inflated; now you have to consider the ‘action’ up to this point.

I don’t feel that 6 max SNG’s are equal to the play you see in ‘freerolls’. In freerolls, there are way more ‘shove monkeys’ vying for the top prize. Having said that, yes, I’ve seen them at these tables as well.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JDean View Post
Hello King_Spadez1...

I love your lead in info, nice write up!

When Electcheif suddenly wakes up and jams, your "conditional committment" has to go out of the window in my opinion...

Muck, move on, get more info and come back swinging at 'em later.

-JDean
Hey JD!!

Thanks for the ‘props’ on my lead in. Thanks again, for taking the time to comment on my post. I really look forward to your input.

You are totally correct by saying, ‘When Electcheif suddenly wakes up and jams, your "conditional commitment" has to go out of the window.’

Sometimes when you have the timer running, and you’re getting the ‘bucket’ in position, just incase you get it all-in, you overlook the obvious. In this case, I didn’t consider Electchief, in any way being in the hand (think there’s only a 15 second timer). By this time, I have even less time left on the timer! For sure, this is going to be one of my hastier decisions. And, it will make or break my tourney hopes if I decide to get it all-in.

Just posted this late last night – will submit my final play, and analysis tomorrow.

Thanks for everyone’s support!
.
 
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Follow-Up - Fri Jan 13, 2012, 10:37 PM
(#6)
king_spadez1's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 230
Follow-up and results of hand:
I had a plan, and knew exactly what I was going to do; whichever path Cordobeno took, I was ready for. Didn’t even consider Electchief in the hand, what a mistake! Now I have less then 6 seconds before the timer runs out. Cordobeno’s call, I considered ‘weak sauce’, so now all I have to consider, is why a shove now, and not a raise on Electchief’s prior action?

If Electchief was sitting on a hand that could beat me now, I think initially he would have raised Cordobeno’s donk bet, instead of just calling (to protect his hand). But, then again maybe he wanted to see my reaction to the bet. Maybe he was waiting for the turn to make a move, but he wouldn’t gain many more chips by then if I had just called. If one of the many ‘draw connect’ cards show on the ‘turn’, Electchief would then have a tough decision to make, if he were shoved or checked/raised on. Okay, 1 second on the timer (I already preset my slider to AI)… I decided that, he could make this play with lots of hands I am beating, such as: a plethora of drawing hands, as well as weaker Aces. Electchief’s shove will definitely knockout all non-top pair hands; possibly stronger top pair hands (if he has Ax); *with the presence of two diamonds on the flop (and the betting so far), OESD’s may only have 6 outs (too weak to call); *and some non-nut flush draws fold (even nut draws might fold).

*If I call (or shove), these above hands are getting better odds to get involved, and may enter the pot, as well.

I elected to SHOVE over Electchief’s AI to collect Cordobeno’s chips (he may elect to enter this mess). I’m convinced I have Cordobeno beat (at this point), and at least will have a chance of recouping some of my investment (220 side pot; 11BB’s).

The outcome of the hand is secondary. It’s how we got here, and if it was a correct line and read, that counts.

Here is the full replay, for the curious:
 
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Sat Jan 14, 2012, 12:34 AM
(#7)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
nice hand sir
 

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