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Would you have played?

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Would you have played? - Thu Jan 12, 2012, 01:30 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 02:12 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Final 8. No reads?
Usually utg pf jam isn't a bluff.
What made you rejam A10o into 5 opponents?
This will thin the feild alright, UNLESS UR BEAT already, as nobody's calling that w/o having A10 crushed, and it really value owns you here.
Now to answer, your the chip leader (or very close) and though this loss didn't cripple you, I think going with A10o to an utg jam 25%ish of your stack, i'd just cut loose and wait for better spots.
Just mo though.
 
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:14 PM
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JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,809
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Hi Ov3rsight!

With this being a 27-man tourney, the first goal here is to make sure to get into the top 5 (get ITM). Having the 2nd largest chip stack, I want to pick my spots carefully, so that I can preserve my stack.

In this situation, UTG shoves (which they need to be doing the next hand they play, since they're the shortest stack and need a double up to get near a position to cash). They did let their stack get down to just over 5BB, which that by itself means that the opp is probably playing tight. If so, then I'm going to muck the A10 here to preserve my chip position. A tight opp will be shoving a much smaller range, pairs or big aces and A10 off doesn't play very well against a small range (about 35% equity).
I also would not shove in this situation because any hand that calls, will be ahead of A10. With two shoves before, any opp calling should like their hand enough to win a pot against two opponents (should only be a high pair, maybe AK). All of those hands are ahead of A10.

If the hand is played and is lost, now, instead of basically being tied for the largest stack, I would be down to 3rd stack (almost 4th), but now if I'd lose another hand, even to the small stack, I'd be out of the money.

I think there is too much risk in calling UTG's shove here, especially by over-shoving, in which any caller behind will be ahead too. Due to this, I'd muck and look for a better situation.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 07:41 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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I'm not worried about UTG's shove, really. We're ahead of any competent player's 6BB shove range here. It's the other five guys after us we need to worry about. If we play we pretty much have to shove as we're pot-committed if anyone after us shoves. With an ace blocker it is hard for anyone behind us to wake up with AA, but I still lean towards a fold to protect our chip position.

If we were in the BB and it folded to us this is likely a call though. We need to call 1800 into 2400 so we need about 42% equity. 1800/(2400+1800)= .42. Against a range of 10% we have about 42% equity. Due to ICM we actually may want to fold if he's only pushing 10% but if he's a bit wider we definitely want to call. Against 15% it is definitely +$EV to call with ATo, and since he's UTG he really should be shoving a wide range. If UTG is good we have an easy call as he should be shoving well over 15% on 6 BBs UTG. If he's bad then we may fold our BB as he may just be a nit who finally woke up with a hand.


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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 06:52 AM
(#5)
RaBBiiTGiiRL's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 972
I think the AT is a fold here, good chipstack and no need to risk it with AT
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 10:55 AM
(#6)
Grade b's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 3,604
Hi Oversite,

I have to agree that we are nearly always ahead of a good players UTG raise in this situation as they are down to 6BB it should open their rainge up. But is the player a nit. A number of times I have thought this and called with a good starting hand to fid out that yes he really was waiting for AA or KK.

Another factor he is table dynamic, even a good player at 6bb is going to be wary if the table are shove / bluff happy so on a more agressive table you might up the starting hands of the UTG player.

Then their is our hand, This close to the bubble in EP I'm not playing ATo unless
a. its dirt cheap or b. the table are timid little mice (or do i mean tight nits)

I Early I'm looking for AQs maybe AJs if i'm opening and better to call a raise (small stacks will be evaluated on a case by case basis).

So in answer to your question,

I would have made that play if,

I thought the UTG player knew how to play well and every one else to act behind me had stats of around 12 and 2 and more importantly had been playing scared.

Grade b


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