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Value bet the river?

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Value bet the river? - Thu Jan 12, 2012, 02:20 PM
(#1)
Ov3rsight's Avatar
Since: Dec 2011
Posts: 340
hand 26 of a $1.50 27man SnG. I'm second in chips overall.



I decided to check behind on the river. Or would it have been better to make a value bet? I raised preflop, and bet both flop and turn, and he kept calling. The river's a blank, but because he called both streets I'm having some doubts whether or not my top pair is good. I have some good showdown value, and I don't wanna shove here. I'm only going to get called if I'm beat. If he was holding an ace, he might have called, but if he had paired another card I doubt he would.

Seeing his cards at showdown, I think he should have folded preflop, I can understand him calling the flop, but what was he hoping to win by calling the turn? Seeing them I'm also thinking whether or not I should have bet. Did I overestimate the odds he had me beat?

Thoughts?

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Last edited by Ov3rsight; Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 02:23 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 03:17 PM
(#2)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I dont see any added value in betting 5th street here. You got 2 streets of value w/ top/ top. good.
Take away the fact.that you saw his cards at showdown...
Is worse calling a river barrel? Maybe a weaker ace. and maybe this guy will call off second pair. I dont know (no reads)
But, if your river bet gets jammed, then what? Break out the bucket. Right?
I think you played that real well...you avoided that puke moment by getting your hand to showdown w/o putting yourself in a spot where you have to make any tough descisions. nice job..

Last edited by mtnestegg; Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 03:21 PM..
 
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 09:05 PM
(#3)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Quote:
Originally Posted by mtnestegg View Post
But, if your river bet gets jammed, then what? Break out the bucket. Right?
Not really. If we're betting the river, we're most likely jamming, and if we bet smaller it'd be with the intent to call a jam without question. I'd triple-barrel here against most opponents; almost anything that has you beat would have raised the flop or the turn. I understand the reason for the check, but I actually think you're almost never behind here, so you're missing a lot of pure value.
 
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Thu Jan 12, 2012, 09:31 PM
(#4)
oriholic's Avatar
Since: Oct 2010
Posts: 751
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Hi Ov3rsight, this is an interesting spot that you're going to find yourself in a lot and thus it is important to learn to play the best you can. I think you might be missing out on a lot of value here by checking.

I would definitely prefer to value-shove river. He can check/call all streets with a weaker ace like AQ/AT. As passive as he is he probably raises you if you're beat (ie. with AJ or a set) The only draw that gets there is T8, and that's a small part of his range. If he's caught up with A7 oh well, load up another tournament.

Now, if instead you were against an aggressive player who had been betting all streets at you and he then checks the river (or bets in a way that you are considering raising) I'd favor the more passive choice, as his range is full of bluffs and strong hands.


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Last edited by oriholic; Thu Jan 12, 2012 at 09:41 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 07:16 AM
(#5)
RaBBiiTGiiRL's Avatar
Since: Jan 2012
Posts: 972
He limped and called ur raise preflop, you showing a strong hand. It looked to me like he was chasing a draw or had small pps, set on flop or even an A with low kicker. But the check he made on river, made me think that he missed the draw, and I think if he had set on flop he wld of bet/shoved on river.

So i wld made a value bet on river for sure.
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 08:39 AM
(#6)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Ok, I agree with the op that h shove is almost never being called by worse (except maybe AQ IMO)
So that being the case, to get value from weaker holdings than that, what size do you make that river bet to get a weak call? 40%? and sinse it would be a call any reshove, do you want to try to make it look like you might back down to that shove? Like 25-30%?
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 01:54 PM
(#7)
JWK24's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 24,831
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Hi MT,

I try to make these value bets in the 33%-50% range, depending on what I think the opp will call. In this hand, even for a 1/3 pot bet, this puts over 1/3 of the remaning chips into the pot, so there isn't a good way to make it look like I wouldn't call a shove, unless I bet less. To get underneath it, I'd have to drop my bet down to 25% of the pot.... which I could do, but then it would look fishy, as it's not a normal play for me.
The thing with this though... is the opp even considering where you're pot committed at?

If the opp was bluffing or semi-bluffing a number of times, instead of value-shoving (which they may fold to without a better hand), I'd make a 1/3 pot bet here and hope that the opp bluffs at it and does shove, as it may be easier to get their chips in this way, compared to having them call a shove.

I would definitely be making a bet on the river though.

Hope this helps and good luck at the tables.

John (JWK24)


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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 02:09 PM
(#8)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Because of the strength of our line, this guy will only be interested in raising hands that beat us. Since we'll likely be unable to induce a shove by a worse hand, we should take advantage of this guy's apparent enthusiasm for calling and just shove the river. It's less than a pot-sized bet, so it's a fairly standard value bet amount anyway.
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 02:33 PM
(#9)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Quote:
Originally Posted by PanickyPoker View Post
Because of the strength of our line, this guy will only be interested in raising hands that beat us. Since we'll likely be unable to induce a shove by a worse hand, we should take advantage of this guy's apparent enthusiasm for calling and just shove the river. It's less than a pot-sized bet, so it's a fairly standard value bet amount anyway.
Hmmm interesting, so you think a stations calling a (close to) pot sized river bet? You say any bet by us, we.re calling off any shove, but here you say hes only shoving if we.re beat. So why shove again? Only the worst of stations are calling that off imo. Most stations aren't total dumbasses (weak, yes. Timid, yes, but not complete yahoos) in my limited exp. anyway.
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 03:02 PM
(#10)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
If he's called two streets, we should just assume he'll call a third. Maybe because he has a weaker pair and doesn't believe us. Maybe because he has a similar hand and is outkicked. Maybe because he's tilted and will make a '**** it, might as well...' call. Maybe because he's trapping and has us beat. Whatever the case may be, we have reason to believe that the last one isn't true: Most people with strong hands on wet boards stick in a raise at some point. So, chances are we have the best hand. So we should bet.

And we're calling a shove no matter what because we have a good hand and we're committed after any bet on our part. Yes, he's unlikely to raise worse, but he rarely has better, so that just means he's calling or folding a lot. And since he's apparently not folding, we should bet because he's likely to check back stuff he'd call with.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 03:16 PM.. Reason: Silliness
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 03:24 PM
(#11)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
I'm just saying that if this guy is the station we believe him to be (and obviously is, after seeing his holes) wouldn't you make the bet more appealing to call, than a river shove?
He called a 3/4ish and 2/3 bets respectively, and ALOT of players of this caliber (22 short) haven't a clue about commitment, It just seems to me, a smaller bet is way more likely to be called off than a shove.
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 03:56 PM
(#12)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Perhaps. If he'd call a pot-sized bet 50% of the time here, but a two-thirds pot-sized bet here 90% of the time, then the smaller one would be better. That said, there would need to be a very large difference in the guy's calling frequencies in order for a less-than-pot sized bet to be good here. He'd need to be willing to call a one-third sized bet something like 100% of the time and a full-pot bet less than 30% in order for the smaller bet to be good. In the case of anyone who's calling two streets before the river, station or not, the assumption is usually that there's not much difference between their calling frequencies of varying bet sizes, so the bigger one is usually better.

But the psychological question of whether or not putting him to the test for an all-in (in lieu of leaving a few chips behind) reduces his calling frequency, is a little beyond me. So you could make a psychology-based argument for betting more along the lines of 80% of the pot rather than a shove. Interesting idea.

Last edited by PanickyPoker; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 03:59 PM..
 
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Fri Jan 13, 2012, 04:05 PM
(#13)
mtnestegg's Avatar
Since: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,336
Thats my point exactly. I think there's a huge difference in your average station calling off a 1/2 pot bet compaired to a full pot bet. But I get your gist and hope others can rap their heads around this too.
I dont think its anyware near gonna be 50% on a pot bet but probably 90%ish on the smaller bet.

Last edited by mtnestegg; Fri Jan 13, 2012 at 04:13 PM.. Reason: Additional thought
 
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Sat Jan 14, 2012, 12:58 AM
(#14)
marvinsytan's Avatar
Since: Aug 2010
Posts: 6,453
personally,

i will take the same line as you do because i thought if he's drawing he will not call the 3rd street so might as well check it and see a showdown without sweat.

but looking at all the post here

i think they are all right that we should value bet the river anything that has beat us would definitely reraised the turn or bet something at the river

if he called 2 streets with middle pair maybe he will call the 3rd.

i learned something here
 
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Mon Jan 23, 2012, 11:55 PM
(#15)
TheLangolier's Avatar
Since: Jun 2010
Posts: 13,512
(Head Trainer)
Nice thread.

I'm definitely value betting this river personally, I agree with others that we are almost always ahead here unless he has A7... and he will likely call the river with AQ, AT, A8, really any Ax.

A river shove is ok for sizing relative to the pot since it's just less than a pot sized bet, but it is still a very big bet and it's for his stack, so we might lose a few of the weakest A-rags and certainly I think we lose Jx hands... which is relevant because he can have some JdXd holdings in his range too. At any rate, if we're going to bet less than a shove, I think about 1200 sounds right... it's a nice progression in betting (350, 750, 1200) and it would leave him with just over 1k chips behind which makes it a bit easier for him to call with bluff catchers like Jx. Without reads it's hard to pick a clear favorite for me so I think either one is fine, as it's a tournament I'd probably go for the 1200... it may net a few less chips long term than the larger bet, but it does get called more often and adding 1200 to our stack more often may have more tEV for us than adding 2200 less often.

Dave


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Tue Jan 24, 2012, 12:53 AM
(#16)
PanickyPoker's Avatar
Since: Sep 2010
Posts: 3,168
Hmm... I forgot that concept. Since chips depreciate in value as your stack gets bigger, going for a smaller bet can more easily be +EV than a larger bet. Cool point.
 

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